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Transportation leadership you can trust. presented to presented by Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Comprehensive Validation of Activity-Based Models Experiences.

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Presentation on theme: "Transportation leadership you can trust. presented to presented by Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Comprehensive Validation of Activity-Based Models Experiences."— Presentation transcript:

1 Transportation leadership you can trust. presented to presented by Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Comprehensive Validation of Activity-Based Models Experiences from Houston-Galveston Area Council’s Activity-Based Model Development TRB Applications Conference May 21, 2015 Martin Milkovits Arun Kuppam David Kurth Thomas Rossi

2 Tour-Level Choices Long-Term Choices Stop/Trip-Level Choices H-GAC ABM Structure 2 All Tour Stop Generation and Mode Choice Tour Generation Mandatory Tour Destination and Time of Day Auto Ownership, Work Location, School Location Daily Activity Pattern (Including Work/School Travel) Fully Joint Travel Stop (Trip)-Level Destination, Time of Day, and Mode Choice Individual Nonmandatory Travel School Escorting Model Joint Tour Destination and Time of Day Individual Nonmandatory Tour Destination and Time of Day

3 Validation Approach 3 Identify key areas of future analysis Compile validation data Assure correct model operation Prevalidation Population synthesis validation Single-pass validation (TourCast) Full-feedback validation Sensitivity test Elasticity test Backcast test Validation Tests

4 Sensitivity Tests Straight-forward to setup » Synthesized population » Land use data » Networks » Model parameters » Fix random seed Wide array of potential scenarios » Time dependent » Demographic profile 4

5 Example scenarios 5

6 Examine variations across components Activity Pattern Tour Generation Destinations Time of Day Trip-Chaining Mode Choice Assignment 6 Change in Tours in Peak Period with Peak Period Toll Increase

7 Lessons Learned Comprehensive validation reports support sensitivity tests and other model analyses Sensitivity tests key to evaluate model capabilities and assure correct operation Useful training opportunity 7

8 It takes a village… 8 Chris van Slyke, Chi-Ping Lam, Sharon Ju, Heng Wang, David Gao, Michael Onuogu H-GAC Vincent Sanders Houston Metro Andy Mullins Texas Transportation Institute Pat Coleman, Srikanth Neelisetty, Nagaruju Kashayi AECOM Vijay Mahal HDR

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