1. CarboEurope IP 2004-2008 Mid-Term Project Overview Executive Board: Ernst-Detlef Schulze (PI), Annette Freibauer, Riccardo Valentini, John Grace, Philippe Ciais, Han Dolman, Martin Heimann 61 Contractor + 30 Associated Partners Funding: 16.3 M€ (EU) + >30M€ (national) Office: A. Freibauer, A. Thuille, Y. Hoffmann Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jean, Germany http://www.carboeurope.orgwww.carboeurope.org

2. 3 Overarching Project Questions ”The European Carbon Balance” What is the carbon balance of the European continent and its geographical pattern, and how does it change over time? ”Processes and Mechanisms” What are the controlling mechanisms of carbon cycling in European ecosystems? How do external parameters such as climate change and variability, and changing land management affect the European carbon balance? ”Detection of Kyoto” Can the effective CO2 reduction in the atmosphere in response to fossil fuel emission reduction and enhanced carbon sequestration on land be detected in the context of the Kyoto commitments of Europe?

3. Component fluxes of the European carbon balance Ciais et al., 2006, in prep. Black: “natural” Red: human induced

4. Overarching Research Strategy

5. 4 Interlinked Project Components

6. Component 1: Ecosystems Carbon Budget and its Driving Forces Coordination: Riccardo Valentini (U. Tuscia) To observe the fluxes of carbon water and energy over Europe by eddy covariance To partition the flux into its constitutent parts To quantify the effects of management To provide the basic data for evaluation and parametrisation of models

7. Figure 1: Correlation plots between index of water availability (IWA) and annual (a) gross primary production (GPP), (c) terrestrial ecosystem respiration (TER) and (e) net ecosystem production (NEP), and between mean annual temperature (MAT) and annual (b) GPP, (d) TER, and (f) NEP (b, d, f). Solid and dashed lines represent the linear regression lines with associated 95% confidence bands. The linear correlation coefficient, the linear regression equation, and the significance level are reported in each plot. Colors code sites, symbols code vegetation type as indicated in the legend below (ENF=Evergreen Needle Forest, EBF=Evergreen Broadleaf Forest, DBF=Deciduous Broadleaf Forest, MF=Mixed Forest, W=Wetland). Synthesis of Flux Data Reichstein et al., 2006

8. Processes controlling interannual variations in fluxes

9. Sensitivity of respiration to water and temperature

10. Carbon – nitrogen interactions in forest ecosystems (Magnani et al. 2006)

11. Workpackage Soils 1. Detection of changes in soil carbon plausible within 5 years at some sites 2. Soil carbon storage and mineralization are related to soil properties N = 100C-stock 0-5 cm C-stock 0-20 cm FORCAST 2000 MDD 0-5 cm MDD 0-20 cm [g kg -1 ][gC m -2 5y -1 ] Hainich 2.3  0.47.0  1.0 360119 <274 < Hesse 1.2  0.33.8  0.6 -160108 < 173  Soroe 2.4  0.47.1  1.6 520119 <438 < r = -0.59 p < 0.01 r = -0.67 p < 0.01 Mineralisation rate [g CO 2 (g soil C) -1 ] Schrumpf et al., in prep.

12. Forests: Effects of Age and Management Magnani et al., 2006

13. Component 2: Continental Carbon Budget and its Driving Forces (“Atmosphere”) Coordination: Philippe Ciais (LSCE) To provide the high- precision, high-frequency, long-term concentration measurements for the determination of sources and sinks by the top-down approach To develop innovative methods based on carbon cycle tracers and isotopes in order to partition the signals into terrestrial, marine and fossil constituents

14. Increasing continental to marine [CO 2 ] difference With continuous hourly records, trend is robust to data selection Calibration drifts monitored and 10 times smaller Ramonet et al., 2006

15. This trend is also robust to the choice of a marine reference

16. 14 C as a tracer of fossil fuel contribution in European air Levin et al., 2006

17. Component 3: Regional Carbon Budget and its Driving Forces (Regional Experiment) Coordination: Han Dolman (VUA) To determine the spatially explicit regional balance over an area (300x300km) in south-west France at 2km resolution, every day for a full year based on intensive atmospheric and surface measurements Development of downscaling and upscaling methods for the multiple constraint approach

18. CO2 concentrations (ppm) may-27 9HUTC Atmospheric CO 2 modelling May – 27 2005 Sea breeze effects S-W S-E CO2 concentrations (ppm) may-27 14HUTC FOREST AREA AGRICUL. AREA S-ES-W FOREST AREA AGRICUL. AREA

19. Atmospheric CO 2 modelling May – 27 2005 Schematic Processes Sarrat, et al., 2006)

20. We are good are mapping, but we need understanding –Findings Decoupling fluxes and concentration: representation errors Models appear to generate realistic patterns To do Complete mesoscale intercomparison study Execute 4 short two week campaigns, in 2007/2008 Develop methods for regional scale inversions (ENKF, variational, LDP) Works towards a regional carbon data assimilation system Link to integration and flux component

21. Component 4: Continental Integration (Coordination: Martin Heimann, MPI-BGC) To assess the present European carbon balance, its component processes and its variability on a continuum of spatial scales going from local (10km) to continental (5000km) using top-down and bottom-up models To merge the data streams of flux measurements, concentration measurements, forest and soil carbon inventories and combine them with remote sensing, meteorological and other GIS data into a carbon data assimilation system

22. Carbon Cycle Observing Systems Eurasia Europe Eurasia Europe World Countries Plot/Site Eurogrid (~20-50km) 2 Eurogrid (~20-50km) 2 Remote Sensing + GIS - Data Models Remote Sensing + GIS - Data Models Forest/Soil Inventories Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration Flux Measurements Ecosystem Manipulation Experiments Flux Measurements Ecosystem Manipulation Experiments Scientific Carbon Cycle Target Scientific Carbon Cycle Target Political “Kyoto” Target Political “Kyoto” Target

23. Workflow Continental Integration

24. Process Model Development at Eddy-Flux Site-Level (PIXGRO) Owen et al., GCB, 2006

25. Top-down method development: Potential error reduction by increasing observation network

26. Anomaly of 2003 as seen from space: Anomaly of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetic radiation (FAPAR) Gobron et al., 2004

27. Growing season NEP anomaly in 2003, simulated by 4 prognostic and 3 diagnostic terrestrial ecosystem models Vetter et al., in prep.

28. 2003 Summer NEP Anomaly LPJ Simulation and Comparsion with Eddy Flux Data kg C m -2 mo -1 M. Reichstein

29. Large-scale CO 2 flux anomalies determined from atmospheric observations by top-down inversion system

30. Anomaly of summer 2003: Consistency between top-down and bottom- up approach? MPI-BGC inversion Prognostic terrestrial ecosystem models

31. Which process controls the 2003 anomaly? M. Vetter, in prep. All models predict a decrease in NEP, but differ in relative role of GPP and R eco

32. Carbon Balance of Europe Longerterm Average (~10yr) Janssens et al., 2003 t CarboEurope = 2003 Ciais et al., 2006, in prep. t CarboEurope = 2006 ?? t CarboEurope = 2008

33. CarboEurope-IP, Bern, Switzerland, 24-25 July 2006 Harvar d ● JRC-FAPAR SeaWiFS at 2.17 km □ Ground-estimation ● JRC-FAPAR MODIS at 1.0 km ● JRC-FAPAR MERIS at 1.2 km Ref: Turner et al. 2005 FAPAR ≈ 1.-exp(-0.58 ) from PCA_LICOR Advanced procedure for spatio-temporal changes of local LAI 2002 Gobron N., et. al. (2006) ‘Evaluation of FAPAR Products for Different Canopy Radiation Transfer Regimes: Methodology and Results using JRC Products Derived from SeaWiFS and Ground-based Estimations', JGR, DOI 10.1029/2005JD006511 MODIS versus MERIS versus SeaWiFS Validation of