1. hong.li@geo.uio.no http://folk.uio.no/hongli Conceptual Models for Non-stationarity Hong Li 1, Stein Beldring 2 & Chong-Yu Xu 1 1. Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Norway 2. Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Norway SimHYD (Australia), Xinanjiang (China) & HBV (Sweden) Towards Improved Projections, IAHS-IAPSO-IASPEI Assembly, Gothenburg, Sweden, July 2013

2. The Wimmera catchment in Australia Coordinates: Lat: -36.98; Lon: 142.79 Catchment area: 2000 km² Country: Australia Q: 02 Jan 1965 - 31 Aug 2009 (whole) P, T and PE: 01 Jan 1960 - 31 Aug 2009 1997 P1: 01/01/1966-31/12/1973 P2: 01/01/1974-31/12/1981 P3: 01/01/1982-31/12/1989 P4: 01/01/1990-31/12/1997 P5: 01/01/1998-31/12/2005 Q H 2

3. Short summary of the three models 3 ModelSimHYDXAJHBV Input DataP, PE P, T Cal. Pars.71512 CountryAustraliaChinaSweden All the models are for discharge simulation at daily time step. XAJ: Xinanjiang P: Precipitation PE: Potential evaporation T: Temperature Cal. Pars.: Calibrated paramters

4. SimHYD Input: P, PE Cal. Pars.: 7 Chiew, 2005 4

5. XAJ Input: P, PE Cal. Pars.: 15 Jiang, 2007 =0 Distribution of tension water capacity Zhao, 1992 5

6. HBV Input: P, T Cal. Pars.:12 Temperature 6 Solomatine, 2011

7. Results of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) NSE>0.6: reasonableNSE>0.8: good Blue: the calibration in each period Red: the validation in the complete period Black: the calibration in the complete period Best 7

8. Results of Bias (Sim/Obs) 0.9-1.1: reasonable0.95-1.05: good 8 Blue: the calibration in each period Red: the validation in the complete period Black: the calibration in the complete period

9. What will happen if in flood frequency design? Model (NSE): max Q 9

10. Conclusions: … XAJ model is the best, and limited. New measuring technology is needed Model structures need to be updated or modified 10 KEEP BUSY!!!