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Financial Stability Report 2006:1 May 31, 2006
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CHAPTER 1 Financial markets
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Stock markets in selected countries Index: september 2002 = 100 Figure 1:1 Source: Reuters EcoWin
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P/E ratios for Sweden, Europe and the United States Figure 1:2 Source: Reuters EcoWin
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Implied stock-market volatility Index Figure 1:3 Source: Bloomberg
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Historical stock-market volatility in Sweden and the United States Figure 1:4 Source: Reuters EcoWin
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Ten-year government bond rates Per cent Figure 1:5 Source: Reuters EcoWin
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Credit spreads in the United States Percentage points Figure 1:6 Sources: Reuters EcoWin, Federal Reserve Board and Merrill Lynch
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Corporate bond spreads in Europe Percentage points Figure 1:7 Source: Reuters EcoWin
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Credit default swap spreadar Figure 1:8 Source: Bloomberg
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Spreads for bonds issued by emerging market economies Percentage points Figure 1:9 Source: Bloomberg
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Oil price and commodity price index USD per barrel and index: February 2002=100 Figure 1:10 Sources: The Economist and Reuters EcoWin
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Nominal house prices Twelve-month change, per cent Figure B1 Sources: Reuters EcoWin and Australian Property Monitor
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Nominal house prices Twelve-month change, per cent Figure B2 Source: Reuters EcoWin
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US households’ ability to service house purchases Index Figure B3 Source: Reuters EcoWin
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CHAPTER 2 The Swedish banks’ borrowers
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Non-financial companies, borrowing and bank deposits Percentage twelve-month change, three-month moving average Figure 2:1 Source: The Riksbank
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Non-financial companies, borrowing from securities markets and credit market institutions Miljarder kronor Figure 2:2 Source: The Riksbank
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Corporate sector gross fixed capital formation and borrowing by non-financial companies from credit market institutions Percentage twelve-month change, four-month moving average Figure 2:3 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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Ratio of debt to total assets in listed companies Per cent of all listed companies Figure 2:4 Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank
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Returns on equity in listed companies Per cent of all listed companies Figure 2:5 Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank
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Number of corporate defaults by company size Figure 2:6 Source: Statistics Sweden
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Expected default frequency (EDF) by industry for listed non-financial companies Per cent (logarithmic scale) Figure 2:7 Source: Moody’s KMV
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Expected default frequency (EDF) for listed non- financial companies in Nordic countries and Germany Per cent (logarithmic scale) Figure 2:8 Source: Moody’s KMV
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Company acquisitions Figure B4 Sources: Swedish Venture Capital Association (SVCA) and the company Förvärv och Fusioner
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Leveraged buyout investments SEK billion and number Figure B5 Sources: Swedish Venture Capital Association (SVCA)
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EBIT multiples for leveraged buyouts Average in SEK million Figure B6 Source: The Centre for Management Buy Out Research
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EBIT multiples for Swedish equity companies’ acquisitions abroad Average in SEK million Figure B7 Source: The Centre for Management Buy Out Research
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Interest-expenditure and debt ratios for listed property companies Figure 2:9 Sources: Financial statements and the Riksbank
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Expected default frequency (EDF) for listed property companies in Nordic countries and Germany Per cent (logarithmic scale) Figure 2:10 Source: Moody´s KMV
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Vacancy rates for office premises in central locations Per cent Figure B8 Sources: NewSec AB and the Riksbank
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Real rents for office premises in central locations Index 1981 = 100 Figure B9 Sources: NewSec AB and the Riksbank
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Real prices for office premises in central locations Index 1981 = 100 Figure B10 Sources: Newsec AB, Jones Lang LaSalle and Reuters EcoWin
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Average direct return required for office premises in central locations Per cent Figure B11 Sources: Newsec AB and Reuters EcoWin
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Household borrowing by type of institution Percentage 12-month change Figure 2:11 Source: The Riksbank
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Household debt and post-tax interest expenditure in relation to disposable income Per cent Figure 2:12 Sources: Statistics Sweden and The Riksbank
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Duration of fixed interest periods for house mortgage loans Per cent of total stock Figure 2:13 Source: The Riksbank
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Household debt and house prices Index: 1986 = 100 Source: Statistics Sweden Figure 2:14
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House prices Index 1986 = 100 Figure 2:15 Source: Statistics Sweden
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Completed new residential construction, by type of housing Number of dwelling units Figure 2:16 Source: Statistics Sweden
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National average price of tenant owned dwellings SEK per square metre Figure 2:17 Source: maklarstatistik.se
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Debt and interest expenditure ratios for indebted households Per cent Figure B12 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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Debt and interest expenditure ratios, by income deciles Per cent Figure B13 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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Share of household sector debt and proportion of households below the margin, by income deciles Per cent Figure B14 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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Shares of household sector debt and assets, by income deciles Per cent Figure B15 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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CHAPTER 3 Developments in the banking
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Geographical breakdown of operating profits for 2005 Per cent Figure 3:1 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Implied volatility of bank equity Per cent, moving 10-day average Figure 3:2 Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank
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Pre-tax return on equity Per cent Figure 3:3 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Profit before loan losses and net loan losses in the major banks Four-quarter figures, SEK billion, 2006 prices Figure 3:4 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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The major Swedish banks’ profits Four-quarter figures, SEK billion Figure 3:5 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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The major banks’ securities-related commission income, Stockholm Stock Exchange turnover and a Nordic stock-market index SEK million and index: 1997=100 Figure 3:6 Sources: Bank reports, Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
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Post-tax return on equity Per cent Figure 3:7 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Breakdown of the major banks income Per cent Figure B15 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Net interest margin and spreads for the major banks on deposits, bank loans and mortgage loans Per cent, moving 4-quarter average Figure B16 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Cost efficiency of the major banks Per cent Figure B17 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Figure B18 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank Cost/income ratios Per cent
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Stock of loans to the general public, sector breakdown and share of growth Per cent Figure 3:8 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Lending by credit institutions to companies in Sweden Percentage 12-month change, three-month moving average Figure 3:9 Source: The Riksbank
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Lending by credit institutions to households in Sweden Percentage 12-month change Figure 3:10 Source: The Riksbank
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Lending to the public in Sweden and abroad Index: 2005 Q1 = 100 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank Figure 3:11
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Provisions for incurred and probable loan losses Per cent of loan stock, accumulated over four quarters Figure 3:12 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Loan losses, net Per cent of loan stock Figure 3:13 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Tier 1 capital ratios of the four major Swedish banks Per cent Figure 3:14 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Tier 1 capital ratios of the major Nordic banks Per cent Figure 3:15 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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The major Swedish banks’ deposits, lending and funding gap SEK billion and per cent Figure 3:16 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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The major Swedish banks’ interest- bearing assets and liabilities, December 2005 SEK billion Figure 3:17 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Tier 1 capital ratios in the four major Swedish banks after one of them has defaulted Per cent. Recovery 25 per cent Figure 3:18 Source: The Riksbank
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ARTICLE 1 Using external information to measure credit risk
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Lending, geographical breakdown Per cent Figure B1 Sources: The banks’ annual reports and the Riksbank
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Lending, sector breakdown Per cent Figure B2 Sources: The banks’ annual reports and the Riksbank
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Corporate lending, industry breakdown Per cent Figure B3 Sources: The banks’ annual reports and the Riksbank
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Expected loss as a percentage of the bank’s credit portfolio Per cent Figure 1 Source: The Riksbank
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Figure 2 Risk capital requirement as a percentage of the bank’s credit portfolio Per cent Source: The Riksbank
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Expected loss and risk capital requirement as a percentage of the bank’s credit portfolio Figure 3 Source: The Riksbank
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Risk capital and Tier 1 capital in the banks Per cent Figure 4 Source: The Riksbank
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Income breakdown in the four major banks Per cent Figure 5 Sources: The banks’ annual reports and the Riksbank
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ARTICLE 2 Hedge funds and the financial system
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Market index Source: Reuters Ecowin Figure 1
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Number of hedge funds registered in Sweden and the percentage of capital managed Per cent Source: Fondbolagens förening Figure 2
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Nordic Hedge fund index (NHX) Sweden and the Affärsvärlden general index Source: Hedgenordic Figure 3
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