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Cogita, Disce, Apta 25-Oct-15 OPR: AOJK-EDG UNCLASSIFIED 1 Special Warfare Education Group (Airborne) Pakistan: Disputed Boundaries in Kashmir UNCLASSIFIED.

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Presentation on theme: "Cogita, Disce, Apta 25-Oct-15 OPR: AOJK-EDG UNCLASSIFIED 1 Special Warfare Education Group (Airborne) Pakistan: Disputed Boundaries in Kashmir UNCLASSIFIED."— Presentation transcript:

1 Cogita, Disce, Apta 25-Oct-15 OPR: AOJK-EDG UNCLASSIFIED 1 Special Warfare Education Group (Airborne) Pakistan: Disputed Boundaries in Kashmir UNCLASSIFIED The overall classification of this briefing is: UNCLASSIFIED

2 Cogita, Disce, Apta 25-Oct-15 OPR: AOJK-EDG UNCLASSIFIED 2 AGENDA: Introduction History of Pak-India conflict Geography of Pakistan Pakistani Politics in regards to India Military budget in Pakistan versus India Pakistan’s Economy Social Stigmas of India and Pakistan conflict Water Rights and Infrastructure Media and the conflict Significance to US National Security Strategy ( and regional implications) Pakistan Kashmir Conflict

3 Cogita, Disce, Apta 25-Oct-15 OPR: AOJK-EDG UNCLASSIFIED 3 Kashmir is a region in the north of Pakistan and India that has been in conflict for some time. The war in Afghanistan and the larger global conflict against terrorism has overshadowed this conflict and kept it largely out of media attention for some time now. The withdraw of US troops from Afghanistan is beginning to raise concerns to the involved parties and the rest of the world again. The dispute over the Kashmir border between Pakistan and India is a leading cause of regional instability in Pakistan, which directly affects US regional interests and negatively impacts broader US security interests as outlined in the USNSS. Pakistan Kashmir Conflict

4 Cogita, Disce, Apta 25-Oct-15 OPR: AOJK-EDG UNCLASSIFIED 4 Chronology/History Pakistan Kashmir Conflict 1947 Partition of India creates Pakistan 1948 Muhammed Ali Jinnah assassinated; 1 st War with India over Kashmir 1956 Constitution proclaims Pakistan an Islamic Rep. 1958 General Ayyub Khan takes over 1965 2 nd War with India over Kashmir 1971 East Pakistan secedes – Civil War. India supports E. Pakistan. 1972 Simla peace agreement w. India creates new Kashmir border 1980 US pledges military assistance to Pak as Russia invades Afghanistan 1998 Pakistan conducts nuclear tests (after India) 1999 Pak forces clash w/ Indian military vic. Kargil 2001 Pakistan supports US in GWOT Dec 2001- Ind/Pak mass troops Along border APR 2005 Bus services resume between PAK and India after 60 years May, 2002 Pakistan test fires 3 med range missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads 2003 Ind/Pak declare a cease fire 2011 March - The prime ministers of India and Pakistan meet to watch a cricket match

5 Cogita, Disce, Apta 25-Oct-15 OPR: AOJK-EDG UNCLASSIFIED 5 Geography Of Pakistan Tribal Areas Khyber-Pakh Balochistan Kashmir Pakistan Kashmir Conflict

6 Cogita, Disce, Apta 25-Oct-15 OPR: AOJK-EDG UNCLASSIFIED 6 Pakistan Kashmir Conflict Afghanistan India Iran TajUzb Geography Of Pakistan Tribal Areas Khyber-Pakh Balochistan Kashmir Turkmenistan

7 Cogita, Disce, Apta 25-Oct-15 OPR: AOJK-EDG UNCLASSIFIED 7 Rivers of Pakistan

8 Cogita, Disce, Apta 25-Oct-15 OPR: AOJK-EDG UNCLASSIFIED 8 Pakistan Kashmir Conflict

9 Cogita, Disce, Apta 25-Oct-15 OPR: AOJK-EDG UNCLASSIFIED 9 Pakistani military strategy for a possible war with India War on the Siachen Glacier Future issues faced by the PAK MIL in Kashmir -Containment of VEO spread into Kashmir -Spill over of extremism into India Pakistan Kashmir Conflict

10 Cogita, Disce, Apta 25-Oct-15 OPR: AOJK-EDG UNCLASSIFIED 10 Economic Pakistan Kashmir Conflict

11 Cogita, Disce, Apta 25-Oct-15 OPR: AOJK-EDG UNCLASSIFIED 11 Political 11 May 2013 Elections First transition from/to elected government in Pakistan’s history New government to take control in June Violent Lead-Up to Elections (Pakistani Taliban) Taliban claims elections are anti-Islamic New (Returning) Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif Historically, pursues peace in Kashmir Remains committed to peaceful Kashmir solution IAW UN Resolution Pakistan Kashmir Conflict

12 Cogita, Disce, Apta 25-Oct-15 OPR: AOJK-EDG UNCLASSIFIED 12 Political 11 May 2013 Elections (Cont’d) Pakistan Muslim League – N (PML-N) gains power Conservative, capitalist, pro-agriculture Strongly opposes religious extremism Historically, pursued/enhanced nuclear expansion in Pakistan Promotes strong continued relations with China Kashmir dispute to remain among top priorities with new Gov’t Sharif supports Kashmiri right to self-determination Alleged state-sponsored suppression and human rights violations in India- controlled Kashmir Pakistan Kashmir Conflict

13 Cogita, Disce, Apta 25-Oct-15 OPR: AOJK-EDG UNCLASSIFIED 13 Political Pakistan Relations with India 2004 Cease-Fire currently maintained Prime Minister (Elect) Sharif to maintain peaceful relations India to hold general elections in 2014 New Prime Minister could mean renewed conflict or peace progression Pakistan Relations with China China continually provides economic, military, and technical aid Close strategic allies China supports Pakistan’s claims to Kashmir *Pakistan-China Relations continue to cause strain on Pakistan-India Relations* Pakistan Kashmir Conflict

14 Cogita, Disce, Apta 25-Oct-15 OPR: AOJK-EDG UNCLASSIFIED 14 Conflict as it shapes issues with power, water, agriculture: Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Three Western Rivers -Pakistan Three Eastern Rivers -India Permanent Indus Commission Treaty has never been revoked Tarbela Dam Special Services Group SSG Tarbela Ghazi Base Pakistan Kashmir Conflict

15 Cogita, Disce, Apta 25-Oct-15 OPR: AOJK-EDG UNCLASSIFIED 15 Karakoram Highway -Khunjerab Pass Pakistan Kashmir Conflict

16 Cogita, Disce, Apta 25-Oct-15 OPR: AOJK-EDG UNCLASSIFIED 16 Conflict in the Media China Frame/Stance: -Interest in expansion India Frame/Stance: -Control over River & Tributaries -Has power to pursue Kashmir Pakistan Frame/Stance: -wants Kashmir -hesitant to pursue Kashmir- Neutral -Wants Peace & Independence Pakistan Kashmir Conflict

17 Cogita, Disce, Apta 25-Oct-15 OPR: AOJK-EDG UNCLASSIFIED 17 Religious differences and prejudices complicate the conflict: -Shia versus Sunni in Pakistan -Muslim versus Hindu in Kashmir -Muslim Majority in Kashmir on both sides of the border -Conflict drives perception of India to Pakistanis; Perception of India drives further conflict Pakistan Kashmir Conflict

18 Cogita, Disce, Apta 25-Oct-15 OPR: AOJK-EDG UNCLASSIFIED 18 Regional Implications China – Border and road to port considerations Afghanistan – Control of the tribal areas Central-Asia – spill over of conflict and extremism Nuclear Arsenal “Pakistan is approaching a perfect storm of threats, including rising extremism, a failing economy, chronic underdevelopment, and an intensifying war, resulting in unprecedented political, economic, and social turmoil.” - Anthony Cordesoman, qtd in “Frenemies: The US-Pakistan Relation is No Love Match,” Time Pakistan Kashmir Conflict

19 Cogita, Disce, Apta 25-Oct-15 OPR: AOJK-EDG UNCLASSIFIED 19 US National Strategic Implications China – Competing superpowers Afghanistan – ongoing conflict there Central-Asia – spill over of conflict India and Pakistan – both countries are allies Nuclear Deterrence Pakistan Kashmir Conflict

20 Cogita, Disce, Apta 25-Oct-15 OPR: AOJK-EDG UNCLASSIFIED 20 The Way Ahead? “ Treat Pakistan as a subject – not as an object – of U.S. Government policy.” - INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ADVISORY BOARD Report on Pakistan and U.S. Security Strategy, 9 OCT 2012 “While the ultimate responsibility of negotiating a solution is with the involved parties, it is also the right time for the United States to pursue creative, persistent, and discreet high-level diplomacy to help move the peace process forward.” -M. Farooq Kathwari“How the Kashmir Dispute Affects Security in South Asia” Council on Foreign Relations Pakistan Kashmir Conflict

21 Cogita, Disce, Apta 25-Oct-15 OPR: AOJK-EDG UNCLASSIFIED 21 QUESTIONS

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