1. Developing Student’s Ability to Reason about Complex Earth Systems: A Hypothesis Bruce E. Herbert beherbert@library.tamu.edu Lauren N. Holder lnholder@tamu.edu Texas A&M University Libraries Geology & Geophysics, Texas A&M University

2. Nature of Complex Systems The study of animal aggregations such as schools of fish is one of the more surprising areas in which complexity theory is proving useful. It is being applied to understand the evolutionary advantages and drawbacks of group behavior. Science Vol 284 Apr 2 1999  Operate across a wide range of scales; hierarchical  Usually exists far from equilibrium  Nonlinear relationships with positive and negative feedbacks  Exhibit irreversibility, hysterisis, or chaotic behavior  Bifurcations to multiple states  Self-organization and emergent properties  Deterministic and stochastic components that are essential to system stability Complex systems consist of interacting parts with open boundaries

3. Ecological Hysteresis in a Shallow Lake Response of charophyte vegetation in Lake Veluwe to P Scheffer et al., 2001. Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature 413:591-596.

4. Ecosystem Bifurcations in the Pacific Ocean Compound indices of ecosystem state were developed from 31 climatic and 69 biological normalized time series Scheffer et al., 2001. Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature 413:591-596.

5. Pattern Formation in Belousov-Zhabotinsky (BZ) Reactors BZ reactors are spatio-temporal chemical oscillators. Using specific proportions of chemicals, a series of competing and oscillating reaction steps develop. A single experimental record, by Pt electrode, of simple and complex behavior observed as transients on the way to final equilibrium in a closed vessel. http://eos.bio.tu-darmstadt.de/giersch/pics/bzr.png

6. Applying Understanding of Complex Earth Systems to Develop Policy or Management Solutions Can Be Challenging ……. ……………Even for Experts

7. Nature of Inquiry & Design Environmental Management Great Smoky National Park has the highest ozone levels in the US cumulative exposure index http://www.asl-associates.com/restofstory.htm

8. Nature of Inquiry & Design Environmental Management National Parks Conservation Association http://www.aldha.org/smokey02.htm Monitoring Ozone, Look Rock air quality station Great Smoky Mountains National Park Great Smoky has the highest ozone exposure at levels harmful to plants of any national park in America  90 percent of the black cherry trees and tall milkweed plants show leaf symptoms of ozone injury  28 species show similar signs when exposed to levels of ozone during controlled studies  Sensitive tulip poplars show reduced growth  Reduction of ozone had no impact on tree deaths

9. Learning Issues Development of Accurate Causal Models Swaying was first thought to be due to design. The resonant lateral mode of vibration of the bridge is represented by a mass-spring- damper system. Wobbling of the bridge and crowd synchrony emerge together as dual aspects of a single instability mechanisms Crowd synchrony on the Millennium Bridge Strogatz et al., 2005. Nature. 438(3):43

10. DBER Focus Nature of Authentic Science Philosophy of Science, Learning Sciences & Science Education Scientific Research in Multiple Disciplines Duschl & Grandy (2007) Herbert (2006)

11. Authentic Practices Authentic Design/Problem Solving Conceptualizing Engineering Design Real-world problems are often different from the school problems because they are ill-defined, messy, and knowledge intensive (Novick & Bassok, 2005). “A good representation of the problem and a good solution method are needed for successful problem solving” (DBER Report, 2012).

12. Design Frameworks Adaptive Environmental Management Adaptive management is a structured, iterative process of optimal decision making in the face of uncertainty, with an aim to reducing uncertainty over time via system monitoring.  Iterative decision-making  Feedback between monitoring and decisions (learning)  Explicit characterization of system uncertainty through multi-model inference  Embracing risk and uncertainty as a way of building understanding http://www.nap.edu/catalog/10663.html

13. Design Frameworks Risk Assessment Rejeski, D.W. (1995) Risk and Vision. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (PM-222A) Washington, DC 20460 http://www.epa.gov/oswer/riskassessment/ima ges/nas_paradigm_revised.jpg

14. Design Frameworks Ecological Services Alcamo, J. and E.M. Bennett. 2003. Ecosystems and Human Well-being: A Framework for Assessment. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Available from http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/Framework.html

15. Improving Student Learning An Emerging Question South Platte River Watershed USGS NAWQA Project Learning supported by progressions of case studies as well as progressions of authentic practices  Causal Models ( Perkins & Grotzer )  Causal Models ( Perkins & Grotzer 2000; Raia 2012 )  Number & Type of Variables (Chinn & Brewer 2001)  Patterns and Noise (Rapp & Uttal 2006)  Spatial & Temporal Scale (Dodick & Orion 2006; Kastens & Ishikawa 2006)  Uncertainty (  Uncertainty (Kuipers et al 1988)

16. Feedback appreciated drbruceherbert@gmail.com