1. Northwest Power and Conservation Council Reviewing the Fifth Power Plan Energy Price Assumptions Natural Gas Advisory Committee December 5, 2006

2. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 2 Fuel Price Historical Perspective

3. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 3 Natural Gas Prices: 2004 Through September 2006 200520062004 Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

4. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 4 Low to High Natural Gas Price Range Vs. Actual $5.97 $8.11 $6.73 Low High

5. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 5 Differentials From Henry Hub To Northwest Hubs

6. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 6 Forecast Vs. Actual Stanfield Prices

7. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 7 Futures Prices Compared to Council Forecast Range

8. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 8 Short-Term Forecast Compared to Council Range

9. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 9 Storage is Highest in Years

10. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 10 More Recent Long-Term Natural Gas Price Forecasts

11. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 11 Example risk treatment – natural gas prices

12. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 12 2005 World Oil Prices Exceeded the 5 th Plan Range

13. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 13 Council Oil Price Range Compared to AEO 2006

14. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 14 Western Mine Mouth Coal Prices

15. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 15 Weekly Spot Coal Prices

16. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 16 Delivered Utility Coal Price: 2003 Forecast vs. Actual

17. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 17 Monthly Electricity Prices in 2005 and 2006 Average 5 th Plan = $52.35 Average Actual = $52.89 20052006

18. Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 18 Conclusions Oil prices are higher than plan range, but have little direct effect on Power Plan Oil prices are higher than plan range, but have little direct effect on Power Plan Natural gas prices are not clearly inconsistent with the Plan forecast, and the volatility we modeled is consistent with recent experience Natural gas prices are not clearly inconsistent with the Plan forecast, and the volatility we modeled is consistent with recent experience A moderate change in the fuel or electric price forecasts would not affect the 5-year actions called for by the Power Plan A moderate change in the fuel or electric price forecasts would not affect the 5-year actions called for by the Power Plan