1. Outlook for World Cotton Supply and Use Armelle Gruère, ICAC ABARE’s Outlook 2010 Conference March 2, 2010

2. Outlook for World Cotton Supply and Use 1.A Bright Short-Term Outlook 2.A More Nuanced Long-term Outlook

3. A BRIGHT SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK

4. Growth in World Cotton Mill Use Growth in World GDP

5. Cotton Consumption Million tons

6. World Cotton Production and Mill Use Production Consumption

7. Cotton Production Million tons

8. Cotlook A Index Season-average (US cents/lb) 74 79 69 61

9. Price Ratios at Planting Time Cotton to: Maize, Soy, Wheat, Rice and Sugar Price Ratio

10. 2000 = 100 Crude Oil Prices Fertilizer Prices 2000 = 100

11. World Cotton Area and Yield Million hectaresKg/ha Area Yield

12. Cotton Production Million tons

13. World Cotton Imports Million tons

14. Cotton Exports Million tons

15. Share of Asia in the World Total Mill Use Production Imports

16. Cotton Exports

17. Global Coton Ending Stocks Million tons

18. A MORE NUANCED LONG- TERM OUTLOOK

19. World Cotton Production and Consumption Million Tons

20. Cotton/Grain Price Ratios Index: 1990 = 100

21. World Cotton Area Million Ha

22. World Cotton Yields Kg per Hectare

23. World End-Use Textile Fiber Consumption by Fibers Million tons

24. Cotton’s Share of World End- Use Textile Fiber Consumption Percent Average 1960-2008

25. Relative Cotton Prices*

26. Cotlook A Index (Nominal) Season Average (US cents/lb)

27. Cotlook A Index (Real) Season Average (2008 = 100)

28. Conclusions A bright short-term cotton outlook: –Recovering mill use –Tightening stocks –Firm prices A more nuanced long-term outlook: –Slow growth in production –Continued competition with polyester –Higher nominal prices but declining real prices