1. Maja Mihaljević Kosor University of Split, Faculty of Economics, CROATIA E-mail: majam@efst.hr Examining the Determinants of Student Non-completion in Higher Education: An Application to Croatia

2. Main problems in HE (in Aghion et al., 2008; van der Ploeg and Veugelers, 2008a) :  Duration of studies  Small number of students earning a degree  Large number of students dropping out 1. Main motives…

3. Defining and measuring non-completion Contributions from authors in the UK and US Tinto’s Student Integration Model (1971):  Student persistence (non-completion) depends on SOCIAL and ACADEMIC integration at the HEI Main variables influencing non-completion:  Ability, gender, age, …  Socio-economic background  Current schooling characteristics  Peer effects (non-linearities)  Effort (usually not included) 2. Previous Empirical Work…

4. 3. Developing a Model of Student Non- completion for the First Year of Studies… NC_1= f(X, F, S, P, E, C) X = personal characteristics F = family characteristics S = previous schooling characteristics P = peer effects E = effort C = current schooling characteristics

5. Data: Faculty-level data from one large Croatian HEI Time period: 1995-2002 N=3310 students Model (1) and Model (2) 4. Preliminary Results…

6. Limitations… Missing data Focusing on first year non-completion

7. VARIABLE Model (1) N=1153 Model (2) N=2287 Coeff.(z-stat.)Coeff.(z-stat.) Constant-1.191-0.49 0.4970.30 Personal characteristics (X) Age 0.166***4.68 0.110***5.31 Urban 0.1380.32 0.3161.10 Married -0.059-0.07-0.504-1.25 Previous schooling characteristics (S) Gymnasium-technical-1.299***-5.37-0.676***-4.43 Studied related subject-0.577**-2.41-0.439***-2.73 Sec. school grades-0.007***-4.75-0.008***-9.17 Admission exam 0.0021.09-0.002-1.54 Family characteristics (F) F_Uni. Or non-university college degree-0.501***-2.79-0.436***-3.72 F_Basic or no school completed-0.477-1.44 0.0950.46 M_Uni. Or non-university college degree-0.374*-1.90-0.302**2.38 M_Basic or no school completed 0.0650.25-0.207-1.20 Table 1: Regression results for logit estimation of non-completion of the first level of studies, Model (1) and Model (2)

8. Current schooling characteristics (C ) Fee status 0.474*1.86 0.1931.28 Full-time student-0.178-0.27-1.258***-4.32 Current GPA1-0.625***-3.42 Peer effects (P) Peers_1 0.0070.54-0.003-0.46 Peers_1sq-0.000-0.54 0.0000.90 Effort (E) Exam attempts 0.1591.51 Year dummies (T) Enrolled in 1995-0.182-0.16-1.661***-6.15 Enrolled in 1996-0.712-0.57-0.819***-3.60 Enrolled in 1997-1.671***-2.70-0.606***-3.17 Enrolled in 1998-2.189***-4.07-0.289-1.32 Enrolled in 1999-1.309***-4.51-0.289-1.32 Enrolled in 2000-0.497-0.68-0.481**-2.41 Enrolled in 2001-0.399-1.47-0.424**-2.06 Notes: Significant at ***1%, **5% and *10%.

9. Table 2: Predicted probabilities Types of students Probability of first year non- completion Model (1) Model (2) Type 1 Mature, married, enrolled part time, paying a tuition fee, parents completed sec. school 0.490.70 Type 2 Young, single, full-time student, enrolled tuition-free, highly educated parents 0.010.07 Type 3 An “average” student 0.190.25

10. Table 3: Regression results for Model (2) with MI(20), N=3310 VARIABLECoeff.(z-stat.) Constant 0.9960.89 Personal characteristics (X) Age 0.091***6.60 Urban 0.2571.19 Married-0.345-1.35 Previous schooling characteristics (S) Gymnasium-technical-0.453***-3.40 Studied related subject-0.522***-3.72 Sec. school grades-0.007***-9.60 Admission exam-0.003**-2.55 Family characteristics (F) F_Uni. or non-university college degree-0.340***-3.24 F_Basic or no school completed 0.2111.12 M_Uni. or non-university college degree-0.293***-2.57 M_Basic or no school completed-0.088-0.55

11. Current schooling characteristics (C ) Fee status 0.3270**2.52 Full-time student-1.053***-4.13 Peer effects (P) Peers_1-0.0002-0.08 Peers_1sq 3.44e-060.54 Year dummies (T) Enrolled in 1995-2.279***-10.78 Enrolled in 1996-1.513***-8.46 Enrolled in 1997-1.258***-8.33 Enrolled in 1998-1.082***-6.24 Enrolled in 1999-0.912***-6.09 Enrolled in 2000-0.730***-2.64 Enrolled in 2001-0.748***-4.82 Notes: Significant at ***1%, **5% and *10%.