1. Statistics Division Beijing, China 25 October, 2007 EC-FAO Food Security Information for Action Programme Side Event Food Security Statistics and Information for Targeting Poor and Hungry Populations at Sub-national Levels Longitudinal Analysis using Panel Data for Assessing Seasonality Effects on the Food Security Situation in Tajikistan RAMASAWMY SEEVALINGUM FAO Statistics Division

2. Statistics Division Beijing, China 25 October, 2007 EC-FAO Food Security Information for Action Programme Side Event Food Security Statistics and Information for Targeting Poor and Hungry Populations at Sub-national Levels OUTLINE  OBJECTIVES  DATA AND METHODS  FOOD SECURITY STATISTICS  CONCLUSION

3. Statistics Division Beijing, China 25 October, 2007 EC-FAO Food Security Information for Action Programme Side Event Food Security Statistics and Information for Targeting Poor and Hungry Populations at Sub-national Levels  Analyse the trends of food security statistics within a yearly period  Evaluate the trend variations of inequality measures of DEC  Effects of these variations in the measurement of food deprivation OBJECTIVE

4. Statistics Division Beijing, China 25 October, 2007 EC-FAO Food Security Information for Action Programme Side Event Food Security Statistics and Information for Targeting Poor and Hungry Populations at Sub-national Levels Food, expenditure and income data from the 2005 Tajikistan Household Budget Survey Characteristics of the survey: - Sample of 925 households interviewed on monthly basis and over time since 2000 - Expenditure and Income data collected from the same household over time while most of HBS collects data at one point of time – LONGITUDINAL DATA

5. Statistics Division Beijing, China 25 October, 2007 EC-FAO Food Security Information for Action Programme Side Event Food Security Statistics and Information for Targeting Poor and Hungry Populations at Sub-national Levels -Monthly Data: 12 sets of Monthly data of 925 households of 2005 THBS - Quarterly Data: 4 sets of Quarterly data of the 925 households for the four quarters of 2005. - Yearly Data: 1 set of all 12 month data of the 925 households resulting to 11,092 measures/observations. METHODOLOGY

6. Statistics Division Beijing, China 25 October, 2007 EC-FAO Food Security Information for Action Programme Side Event Food Security Statistics and Information for Targeting Poor and Hungry Populations at Sub-national Levels Implementation of the FAO Statistics Division statistical procedures for food consumption analysis (Food Security Statistics Module-FSSM)  Procedures: based on FAO methodology for measuring prevalence of undernourishment and food poverty;  Input:  Food consumption data  Household characteristics  Household members characteristics  Nutrients conversion factors  Output: estimation of food consumption (monetary and nutritive values), inequality measures, and other statistics at national and sub national levels METHODOLOGY

7. Statistics Division Beijing, China 25 October, 2007 EC-FAO Food Security Information for Action Programme Side Event Food Security Statistics and Information for Targeting Poor and Hungry Populations at Sub-national Levels Main findings : 1. Dietary Energy Consumption (DEC)  Varies over months of year - High consumption - March, June & October (events, harvest, etc. - Low consumption - January, September, December (availability of food, weather & livelihood - income from food production )  Varies over regions Dushanbe (Capital city) Sogd (Industrial region and large cropping areas) Chatlon (Cotton and wheat production and large cropping areas) RPR (Aluminium Ores - low food production : food imports) Varies over months of yearVaries over regions Analysis of the Food Security Statistics at regional and income levels by months of year 2005

8. Statistics Division Beijing, China 25 October, 2007 EC-FAO Food Security Information for Action Programme Side Event Food Security Statistics and Information for Targeting Poor and Hungry Populations at Sub-national Levels Main findings : 2. Food consumption varies by income levels (*) Analysis of the Food Security Statistics at regional and income levels by months of year 2005 Income level DEC (kcal/P/D) Food expenditures (Somoni/P/D) Unit Value of Dietary Energy (S/1000 kcal) INCOME (Somoni/P/D) Quintile 115100.700.460.86 Quintile 118100.930.511.17 Quintile 120701.160.531.47 Quintile 123301.340.571.91 Quintile 128801.870.653.27 Tajikistan20701.140.551.64 (*) Based on total yearly sample of 11092 households

9. Statistics Division Beijing, China 25 October, 2007 EC-FAO Food Security Information for Action Programme Side Event Food Security Statistics and Information for Targeting Poor and Hungry Populations at Sub-national Levels Share (%) of nutrients in total calories and WHO guidelines Analysis of the Food Security Statistics at regional and income levels by months of year 2005 Main findings : 3. Diet is deficient in proteins

10. Statistics Division Beijing, China 25 October, 2007 EC-FAO Food Security Information for Action Programme Side Event Food Security Statistics and Information for Targeting Poor and Hungry Populations at Sub-national Levels Analysis of the Food Security Statistics at regional and income levels by months of year 2005 Main findings : 4. Inequality in access to food - higher for yearly data

11. Statistics Division Beijing, China 25 October, 2007 EC-FAO Food Security Information for Action Programme Side Event Food Security Statistics and Information for Targeting Poor and Hungry Populations at Sub-national Levels Analysis of the Food Security Statistics at regional and income levels by months of year 2005 Overall remarks (One period observation data v/s Repeated observations) (Common Country Practice v/s Panel survey) Average DEC is unbiased Inequality measures in access to food (CVx) - higher for yearly data as it includes built-in within variations in consumption due to seasonality, income, social and cultural events, etc. Repeated observations capture those variations and therefore have lower inequality measures.

12. Statistics Division Beijing, China 25 October, 2007 EC-FAO Food Security Information for Action Programme Side Event Food Security Statistics and Information for Targeting Poor and Hungry Populations at Sub-national Levels These variations overestimate the CV of DEC and thus overestimate the prevalence of food deprivation. Sensitivity of overestimation of CVx on Food Deprivation estimates with fixed MDER 1800 kcal/P/D. Analysis of the Food Security Statistics at regional and income levels by months of year 2005 CV DEC 0.200.240.290.35 1700656463 204030343842 24507121723 294012610

13. Statistics Division Beijing, China 25 October, 2007 EC-FAO Food Security Information for Action Programme Side Event Food Security Statistics and Information for Targeting Poor and Hungry Populations at Sub-national Levels Variation analysis : Analysis of the Food Security Statistics at regional and income levels by months of year 2005 CV of dietary Energy Consumption Other sources Seasonal variation Variation due to income (CV of DEC due to income) Variation due to biological factors (CV set to 20%)

14. Statistics Division Beijing, China 25 October, 2007 EC-FAO Food Security Information for Action Programme Side Event Food Security Statistics and Information for Targeting Poor and Hungry Populations at Sub-national Levels Variance analysis : Analysis of the Food Security Statistics at regional and income levels by months of year 2005 CV of DEC due to income includes variations  Seasonal food consumption over months of the yearSeasonal food consumption over months of the year (high or low consumption of food due to the availability of certain type of food, social and cultural events, environmental, etc.)  RegionsRegions  Sampling design and other non sampling errors  Other random and non random factors

15. Statistics Division Beijing, China 25 October, 2007 EC-FAO Food Security Information for Action Programme Side Event Food Security Statistics and Information for Targeting Poor and Hungry Populations at Sub-national Levels -Variance analysis Area of residence (rural and urban) and income levels (deciles) were significant sources of the between household variation (standard deviation of 2062 Kcal/ person/ day). The within sources of variation were significant in time (months) and time within area of residence and time within income levels. The within household variation (standard deviation of 608 Kcal/person/day) was smaller than the between household variation. However there is a significant source of variation due to seasonality. Between households error is higher than that of within household which is mainly due to sampling designbetweenwithin Between Analysis of the Food Security Statistics at regional and income levels by months of year 2005

16. Statistics Division Beijing, China 25 October, 2007 EC-FAO Food Security Information for Action Programme Side Event Food Security Statistics and Information for Targeting Poor and Hungry Populations at Sub-national Levels CONCLUSIONS Measures of Food Deprivation, Critical Food Poverty, Depth of Hunger vary with seasons, regions and income levels Food consumption (patterns, diet diversity ) vary with seasons relating to availability of food due to harvest and national socio-cultural events, regions and income levels Food inequality or access to food is overestimated with aggregated food consumption data over time, area or income

17. Statistics Division Beijing, China 25 October, 2007 EC-FAO Food Security Information for Action Programme Side Event Food Security Statistics and Information for Targeting Poor and Hungry Populations at Sub-national Levels Thank you

18. Statistics Division Beijing, China 25 October, 2007 EC-FAO Food Security Information for Action Programme Side Event Food Security Statistics and Information for Targeting Poor and Hungry Populations at Sub-national Levels Trends of Dietary Energy Consumption by regions

19. Statistics Division Beijing, China 25 October, 2007 EC-FAO Food Security Information for Action Programme Side Event Food Security Statistics and Information for Targeting Poor and Hungry Populations at Sub-national Levels Seasonal variations of DEC

20. Statistics Division Beijing, China 25 October, 2007 EC-FAO Food Security Information for Action Programme Side Event Food Security Statistics and Information for Targeting Poor and Hungry Populations at Sub-national Levels Regional variations of DEC

21. Statistics Division Beijing, China 25 October, 2007 EC-FAO Food Security Information for Action Programme Side Event Food Security Statistics and Information for Targeting Poor and Hungry Populations at Sub-national Levels Analysis of variation of dietary energy consumption considering effects of area of residence, income levels and trend

22. Statistics Division Beijing, China 25 October, 2007 EC-FAO Food Security Information for Action Programme Side Event Food Security Statistics and Information for Targeting Poor and Hungry Populations at Sub-national Levels Analysis of the Food Security Statistics at regional and income levels by months of year 2005 Main findings : 5. Prevalence of Food Deprivation decreases using the monthly expenditure data (*) (*) Based on national MDER of 1800kcal/person/day. Food DataDEC (kcal/P/D) CVx (%) Food Deprivation (%) Yearly (11,092)207022.843 Quarterly (925)193521.652 Monthly (925)214317.536