1. Pushing the Limits Keynote Address International Association of Hydrogeologists By Prof. Anthony Turton Vice President: International Water Resource Association bronwyn@speakersinc.co.za www.anthonyturton.com © AR Turton, 2009

2. Layout of Presentation An Overview of Water –The Water Scarcity phenomenon –Population growth as a factor The Role of Groundwater Specific Challenges –Groundwater Recharge Pushing the Limits –Water and Energy Nexus Conclusion

3. World Water Scarcity 1990 Water scarcity is related to population growth as much as it is related to environmental factors

4. World Water Scarcity 2020 Note the Cuvelai and the Limpopo River Basin’s both pass into extreme stress because of population growth

5. World Water Scarcity 2050 Note the Orange River Basin now joins the Limpopo as extremely stressed systems

6. World Water Scarcity 2070 At this stage the most economically active portion of Southern Africa resembles the Middle East North Africa

7. Role of Groundwater Most eloquent case has been made by Prof. Pete Ashton at the CSIR. –The Thunder Graph Technology becomes the key issue. The question is, can society mobilize enough technology? –The issue of development as a constraint Homer-Dixon’s Thesis –The Ingenuity Gap as a concept

8. © P.J. Ashton Total surface water + groundwater resources + maximum recycling (Requires new water storage and treatment technologies) Requires new sources of water (? Imports) + radical changes to water use patterns ? (Existing technology) Surface water + some groundwater + some recycling Low water use estimate [No change in per capita use] 19651985200520252045 80 Years Water demand (Billion m 3 / Year) 20 0 60 40 Possible extension of time with intensive WC and WDM Water Demand in South Africa

9. Ingenuity Gap as a Concept Technical Ingenuity is the capacity to solve complex technical problems facing society Social Ingenuity is the national capacity to create incentives for the generation of Technical Ingenuity Thomas Homer-Dixon (2000) and his team found that Social Ingenuity is a precursor to Technical Ingenuity Poor countries stay poor because of their failure to mobilize enough Social Ingenuity Social Ingenuity is determinant

10. Social Ingenuity Creates Incentives and an Enabling Environment For Technical IngenuityTo Solve Complex Problems facing Society Homer-Dixon, 2000.

11. The South African Ingenuity Gap (After Homer-Dixon (2000)) Source: Turton (2008) Supply of Technical Ingenuity Demand for Technical Ingenuity Current Ingenuity Gap 1910196619852008Time Qty Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 ? ? South Africa has a classic Ingenuity Gap in the water sector The one sector that limits our future economic growth potential

12. Specific Challenges If Ingenuity is a critical success factor, then what are we doing about it? Social Ingenuity – how are we incentivizing scientists, researchers and practitioners? Technical Ingenuity – what new ideas are coming forward? How can we make things happen?

13. Groundwater Recharge Australia is highly water constrained All future development is dependent on solving this core issue that has two components: –How to generate New Water? –How to do better things with Old Water? Water Utility Corporation of Perth –Beenyup Project

14. Water Corporation of Perth

15. Water as a Flux The Perth approach is based on seeing water as a flux rather than a stock. It involves a whole new mindset that has to be changed at every level of society. Precipitation RunoffEvaporation

16. Water as a Flux In this model a network of processes unlocks the maximum value from water and multiplies the initially perceived finite nature of the resource. So the water as a flux paradigm is the product of network thinking in which it is cascaded around the economy with the number of new process cycles limited only by our ingenuity and technological capacity as a nation. Business Process Energy Raw Materials WaterEffluent Product Wealth Recycling Process

17. Water as a Flux Industrial Process So the water as a flux paradigm is the product of network thinking in which it is cascaded around the economy with the number of new process cycles limited only by our ingenuity and technological capacity as a nation. In this model a network of processes unlocks the maximum value from water and multiplies the initially perceived finite nature of the resource.

18. Recharge and New Water Because evaporation is our biggest limiting factor in terms of development... Any reduction in that evaporation is of prime significance. While the continental MAR:MAP conversion is 20%, the Limpopo and Orange conversion is 5.1%. Reducing evaporation therefore means creating New Water. Mine voids?

19. Surface strata Dolomites Ore-bearing strata Eastern Basin Central Basin Western Basin Dyke Safety drive Workings Vertical Shaft Acid Mine Drainage in Gauteng The volume of the mine void under the Witwatersrand is equal to 5 times the volume of Lake Kariba – with no evaporative loss - with new thinking and political will this can become a major source of New Water

20. Pushing the Limits Water and Energy Nexus. SADC has had cheap electricity for too long, but this is about to change. Both Water and Energy have properties that make them a Flux. Two exciting new technological developments –Ground Source Heat Pumps (Passive) –Geothermal Energy for Desalination (Active)

21. Geothermal Energy as a Concept

22. Ground Source Heat Pumps This is mature technology that has been in existence for over 25 years It has been excluded from the SADC region because of the cheap cost of electricity The COP of a typical American unit is 4 and that of a European unit can be up to 12

23. Ground Source Heat Pumps This uses a confined aquifer that has a seasonal temperature differential of just 8°C.

24. Active Geothermal Energy Do we have the technical capacity to model thermal gradients in our aquifer systems to provide drilling targets?

25. Binary Plant Does the mobile belt between the Kaapvaal and Zimbabwe Craton have enough decaying Uranium to become a viable heat source at shallower depth?

26. Geothermal Desalination (MSF) The first commercial MSF plant was installed on the island of Kimolos in Greece The geothermal source is a flow of 60 m³/hr at a temperature of 62°C from a bore 188 m deep The production is 80 m³ per day at a cost of ≤1.6 Euro / m³ Larger scale commercial plants will have an improved efficiency and thus a lower cost A – Suction Ejectors B & C – Sea Water Cooling D – Freshwater Outlet E – Feedstock Inlet F – Brine Outlet Significant technical improvements are currently under development

27. Conclusion Hydrogeology in the SADC region can play a leading role in development. Groundwater recharge should become a strategic initiative with appropriate funding and institutional support. Geothermal energy has a natural synergy with hydrogeology, so we need to start building capacity in this field. Geothermal Energy Association of Southern Africa has just been formed.

28. Thank You Groundwater Recharge is a Priority Geothermal Energy has a Future