1. A Framework for Thinking About Stability Operations Dr. Jonathan Czarnecki NWC Monterey January 2010

2. Major Assumption The demands of Stability operations are similar in nature to those of major combat operations with respect to planning and execution.

3. The Way Operations (appear to) Work Space Time Information Energy Mass Force/Capabilities Information Leadership/Mgmt OperationResults Operating Environment Joint organization Where: - The Operating Environment is an active system - The Joint organization is an active system - Both systems subject to entropic effects - Both interact in complex, unpredictable ways

4. The Three Nexuses 1.Forces - Training - Integrated Military Capabilities 2.Information - Processing - Communications - Decisions 3.Leadership & Management - Operational Staff - Sequencing/Synchronization

5. Nexus 1: Forces/Capabilities Rhyme and Reason: - Built from theory of human needs - Tailored for specific environment and mission - Requires mastery of deeper operational art - Manipulation of five foundations: - Space - Time - Energy - Mass/Matter - Information - Complex adaptive system in a complex operating environment

6. Maybe this implies a priority for our operational tasks??? Physiological needs Safety and Security Love and Belonging Self Esteem Self Actualization Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs Must solve lower Needs first! Likely Limit Of Military Support

7. What Stability Operations Might Provide (In Priority Order) First Set of Deliverables: - within 24 hours of deployment Air, Water, Food, Information Personal Hygiene Support (Includes Infrastructure Support – e.g. waste disposal) Medical Support – Personal and Public Housing Support Public (Local) Security Information/Communications Second Set of Deliverables: - within 72 hours of deployment Energy Support – e.g. electricity, streetlights Public (Community) Security

8. A Possible General Purpose SSTR Capability (Unit) HQ & HQ Staff Security Provider Local Security Regional Security National Security Goods Provider Information Provider Personal Health Provider Public Health Provider Shelter Provider TransportEngineers SustainmentComms Hygiene Provider Public Energy Provider General Provider

9. Nexus 2: Information Who is involved? What do they know? How do they know? How do they share what they know? What do they want? What do they need? What critical decisions need to be made and by whom? What Does It All Mean????

10. Who is involved? Who are Stakeholders? Military Command Operating Environment JOA, AOR, JSOA, etc. Indigenous Population Host Nation Interagency Insurgent NGOs Press Contractor Terrorists Other Interested Nations Other Interested Nations Local Interest Groups Local Interest Groups Intelligence Community Intelligence Community

11. StabOps INFORMATION QUESTIONS What does each party want? How do we operationally plan in this system? Hints and Clues Each party is a purposeful system Each shares the operating environment, but perceives it differently Each is a complex adaptive living system Each and all must use the same basics: (mass, energy, information, space, time) Each has its own stability domain (resilience, robustness, redundancy) There is No Formula REDUCE INCOHERENCE

12. Decisions Who is making them? Why are they making them? Do the decisions promote: - Informed parties - Shared information - Coherent effort - Timely action - Adaptability Are the decisions appropriate? - Do they fit the situation? Are the decisions the right ones?

13. Nexus 3: Leadership and Management Organizational not Individually focused Seeks to reduce uncertainty in the operating environment Focuses on management of information - Comfort with ambiguity - Balancing too much with too little information - Distributing inevitable information overload Continuous scanning Continuous learning Creative in foundational manipulation Ethical (Moral) and Physical courage and fitness Reflection (knowing one’s self)

14. Observations 1.Stability Operations must achieve integration of effort. 2.Stability Operations are complex in terms of: - Organizations - Environment (foundational elements, population) - Problem(s) requiring Operation 3. Stability Operations are adaptive by nature: - Agility - Appropriateness (Fit) 4. Being complex and adaptive, these operations must: - Be robust to achieve mission - Be resilient to adapt - Be redundant to address uncertainty 5. Leadership in Stability Operations must: - Be extraordinary, not just good - Be organizational in nature, not individual - Match the organization in character