1. Burden of disease from rising coal emissions in Asia
Shannon Koplitz1, Daniel Jacob1, Lauri Myllyvirta2, Melissa Sulprizio1
1Harvard University
2Greenpeace International
Coal use in India and China is increasing extremely quickly and has received a lot of attention; but other Asian countries are also undergoing rapid development, and the emissions of coal from these other Asian countries has perhaps been overshadowed by what’s going on in India and China, We focus on the rest of East and
Greenpeace approached about using GEOS-Chem to calculate health impacts from coal, but the broader agenda is actually to reduce the effects of carbon emissions from coal on global climate change. This project has been a unique opportunity to participate in the global climate change conservation speaking in terms of human health.

2. Coal use is expanding rapidly in Asia
Japan
S. Korea
Taiwan
Philippines
Vietnam
Myanmar
Malaysia
Indonesia
Thailand
2014 Population
1. China = million
2. India = 1270 million
3. U.S. = 321 million
4. Indonesia = 255 million
China
India
U.S.
Countries in this work
Tg yr-1
Coal SO2 Emissions
(Present Day ~2011)
Countries in this study = 795 million
Lu et al., 2011; EPA Annual ARP report 2013

3. Coal use is expanding rapidly in Asia
Japan
S. Korea
Taiwan
Philippines
Vietnam
Myanmar
Malaysia
Indonesia
Thailand
Estimated 2030 Population
1. India = 1523 million
2. China = 1393 million
3. U.S. = 361 million
4. Indonesia = 280 million
Coal SO2 Emissions
Increase by 2030
China
India
U.S.
Countries in this work
Tg yr-1
2011
Lu et al., 2011; EPA Annual ARP report 2013
If all projected plants become operational, Asian coal emissions of SO2 and NOx could triple by Indonesia and Vietnam together account for 67% of this projected increase, as well as an additional 35 million people by 2030.

4. Project Objectives Approach
Calculate surface PM and ozone concentrations due to both 2011 and estimated 2030 coal emissions in East and Southeast Asia (excluding emissions from China and India).
Estimate the human health burden of this rising coal pollution.
Approach
Implement three 1-year emission scenarios of coal SO2, NOx, and primary PM2.5 (as fine mode dust) into v9-02 of GEOS-Chem at 0.5°x0.666° resolution over Asia:
Present Day (2011) – Replace EDGAR v4.2 emissions over Asia with 2011 reported emissions
2030 – Add emissions for all Asian coal plants in the developmental pipeline
No Coal – Remove contribution of Asian coal emissions from EDGAR v4.2
Apply concentration-response relationships following Krewski et al., 2009 (PM) and Anenberg et al., 2010 (ozone) to estimate the premature mortality due to coal-related pollution.

5. Regional PM enhancements are mostly from sulfate
2010 Population Map
population
ΔPM2.5 from 2030 Coal
μg m-3
Hanoi
Main points:
Coal consumption in Southeast Asia is expected to increase rapidly over the next couple decades.
Indonesia and Vietnam account for most of this projected increase. Myanmar shows the biggest increase.
Significant increases in coal pollution are expected in this region that’s very densely populated, but the influence of increasing coal use in Southeast Asia on air quality has yet to be investigated in the literature
Our goal – to quantify the influence of coal emissions on particulate matter (and consequently on human health) in this rapidly growing, understudied region
(Gridded Population of the World from CIESIN)
Jakarta
PM enhancements correlate spatially with population density. Total exposure is third highest in China, due to high population levels in southern China near Vietnamese emissions.

6. We estimate 16,000 deaths annually from current coal
Total Exposure in 2030 (ΔPM2.5 x Population)
Excess Deaths Per Year
2011:
14,860 PM
1,530 ozone
16,390 total
2030 increase:
24,160 PM
2,390 ozone
26,550 total
= 42,940
excess deaths
per year (using 2010 population)
Base mortality rate
from GEOS-Chem
Main points:
Using methods consistent with the Global Burden of Disease study in 2010, we assess the health implications from increasing PM due to coal in Southeast Asia
Find 8,000 total deaths in Southeast Asia in the present day, plus ~1,000 in China. The majority of the regional deaths occur in Indonesia and Vietnam, the countries with the highest coal emissions.
We also find that this death toll maybe double in the future if all plants currently listed in developmental pipeline become operational.
The Guardian (2013) - China coal related deaths in China – 250,000 per year
Huffington Post (2011) – All power plant emissions in Europe – 13,000 deaths per year
ΔMortality = γ0 x CRF(β, ΔPM2.5) x Population
concentration-response factor
Including a 10% population increase by 2030 in both Indonesia and Vietnam, we estimate 45,600 deaths annually by 2030 if all projected plants become operational.

7. Global changes in PM are small and driven by NOx
Leibensperger et al., 2011:
ΔPM2.5 from 2030 Coal (this work)
ΔPM2.5 from Asian SO2
ΔPM2.5 from Asian NOx
μg m-3
μg m-3
Intercontinental enhancements in surface PM reflect the influence of NOx emissions on oxidant chemistry. Greater influence over Europe compared to U.S. is likely due to higher domestic PM sources there (SO2, NOx, NH3).