1. abcd AGEING POPULATION - Burden or Benefit? Demographic Trends Adrian Gallop Edinburgh 21 January 2002

2. AGEING IN THE UNITED KINGDOM WHERE ARE WE NOW AND HOW DID WE GET HERE?

3. Ageing population The main reasons for the ageing population structure of the UK population are:  Baby booms, followed by  Falling fertility rates  Falling mortality rates

4.  2000-based national population projections United Kingdom 2000 Small cohorts born during WWI Large cohorts born immediately after WWIVery small cohorts at start of WWIIPost WWII baby boom 1960’s baby boom Lowest fertility rate skip

5.  Total fertility rate, United Kingdom, 1951–2000

6.  Average achieved family size by age and year of birth of women  United Kingdom, 1940-1975

7. * CFS for cohorts born 28 years earlier  Period and cohort measures

8. * CFS for cohorts born 28 years earlier  Projecting fertility

9.  Expectation of life at birth according to death rates experienced in given years  United Kingdom, 1911-1998

10.  Proportion of persons surviving to successive ages, according to death rates experienced or projected  England and Wales, 1851-2031

11.  Effective annual rates of improvement in mortality between successive English Life Tables  Males

12.  Effective annual rates of improvement in mortality between successive English Life Tables  Females

15. Changes in mortality 1980-95  ASMRs for under 15s halved for M & F  Little reduction for males 15-44 (c10%)  Slowdown for females 15-44 (c20%)  Greater reduction for males aged 45-74 (c30%) than females (c20%)  Similar reductions for males and females aged 75 and over (c20%)

16.  Life expectancy at birth by social class – males (E&W)

17.  Life expectancy at age 65 by social class – males (E&W)

18. AGEING IN THE UNITED KINGDOM WHERE ARE WE GOING? Population projections for the UK

19.  Expectation of life at birth, United Kingdom, 1981-2040

20.  Expectation of life at birth according to mortality rates assumed for selected years

21. * CFS for cohorts born 28 years earlier  Projecting fertility

22.  Projecting migration Total net migration, United Kingdom

24.  2000-based population projections  United Kingdom  2000

25.  2000-based population projections  United Kingdom  2005

26.  2000-based population projections  United Kingdom  2010

27.  2000-based population projections  United Kingdom  2015

28.  2000-based population projections  United Kingdom  2020

29.  2000-based population projections  United Kingdom  2025

30.  2000-based population projections  United Kingdom  2030

31.  2000-based population projections  United Kingdom  2035

32.  2000-based population projections  United Kingdom  2040

33.  2000-based population projections  United Kingdom  2045

34.  2000-based population projections  United Kingdom  2050

35.  2000-based population projections  United Kingdom  2055

36.  2000-based population projections  United Kingdom  2060

37.  2000-based population projections  United Kingdom  2065

38.  2000-based population projections  United Kingdom  2070

39.  Actual and projected population by broad age group, United Kingdom, 1900-2070

40.  Actual and projected age distribution, United Kingdom, 1981-2070

41.  Population under 16 and over pension age, United Kingdom, 1981-2025

42.  Actual and projected dependency ratios, United Kingdom, 1971-2051

43.  Actual and projected components of elderly dependency ratio  United Kingdom, 1971-2051

44. COMPARISON OF TRENDS IN UK TO THOSE IN OTHER COUNTRIES

45. Source: United Nations  Expectation of life at birth for males, 1950-2010

46. Source: United Nations  Expectation of life at birth for females, 1950-2010

47. Expectation of life at age 60 EU countries  For males, UK lay 8 th equal with 18.8 years  highest 20.3 years - Greece  lowest 17.8 years - Ireland  For females, UK lay 12 th with 22.5 years  highest 25.1 years - France  lowest 21.5 years - Ireland

48. Source: United Nations  Percentage increase in numbers aged 65 & over, 1990-2050

49. Source: United Nations  Total period fertility rates in Europe, 1960-2010

50. Source: United Nations  Number of pensioners per 1000 “workers”, 1970-2050

51. Source: United Nations  Number of pensioners and children per 1000 “workers”, 1950-2050

52. SUMMARY

53.  Actual and projected population estimates and dependency ratios, United Kingdom, 1901-2050

54. DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING  falling fertility  increasing expectation of life  baby boomer bulge in some countries  increasing elderly population  increasing numbers of very elderly  deteriorating dependency ratios in long term  ageing working population in many countries