1. Evaluating the Creation of a Parallel Non-Oil Transportation System Alan Drake, Andrea M. Bassi January 30, 2009 New America Foundation

2. The Millennium Institute MI is a not for profit organization based in Arlington VA, USA. Established in 1983, MI has assisted over 45 countries to prepare strategic studies of sustainable development possibilities. MI develops and disseminates advanced analytical tools to support strategic planning on critical issues. MI builds capacity in countries to use our tools to help address critical issues.

3. Three Policy Changes Renewable Energy Urban Rail and related Transportation Orientated Development Expand, Improve and Electrify Freight Railroads

4. 2030 vs. Business As Usual GDP: +13% CO 2 : -38% Oil Consumption: -24% Employment: +7.2 million (+5.2%) 2030 is NOT year of maximum impact

5. 2030 vs. BAU GDP: +11.8% CO 2 : -3.8% Oil Consumption: -27.6% Employment: +6.7 million (+4.7%) Subtract Renewable Energy

6. vs. BAU GDP: +9.7% CO 2 : -6.2% Oil Consumption: -22% Employment: +5.5 million (+3.8%) ONLY Electrified and Expanded Freight Rail 2030

7. Maximum Commercial Effort Assumed Maximum Production or Construction that money alone can motivate Less than War Time Effort - People will do more when national survival is at stake Alberta Tar Sands Development was an example until a few months ago

8. Maximum Commercial Effort Electrify 36,000 miles of mainline railroads in 7 years, Add HV AC & HV DC transmission Doubletrack and improve mainline Railroads Remove bottlenecks like CREATE Electrify another 36,000 miles by 2030 $250 - $300 billion 14,000 miles of Semi-HSR - $250 billion Urban Rail - $60 billion/yr for 20 years Wind, Solar PV and Pumped Storage - see ACORE Encourage Bicycling and Walkable Neighborhoods

9. Internal Revolutions @ Railroads Marketing & Services Operational Changes in Several Dimensions Capital Expenditures and Risk (and related Property Taxes)

10. During WW II, National & Military Policy was to ship everything possible by rail to save oil, rubber and trucks for the war effort 90% of ton-miles by rail, rest by truck, barge and pipeline during WW II Our goal is, over 20 years, to shift 85% of truck ton-miles to rail Historical Accomplishments

11. Strategically Relevant US Railroads

12. Railroad Electrification Proposals of the 1970s

13. ?

14. Economics of Rail Electrification 20 BTUs Diesel > 1 BTU Electricity –Freight 17 to 21:1 ratio –Urban Rail, Indirect > Direct Savings Consider DC without Metro today Positive Cost Elasticity of Supply for Rail Negative Cost Elasticity of Supply for Roads Domestic Electricity instead of Imported Oil

15. Electrical Consumption for Transportation USA: 0.19% France: 2.3% USA 2030: ~4% (Without considering EVs) EVs - 17% for personal transport

16. Longer Term Impacts and Systems Analysis Challenges and Opportunities

17. Freight Scenario Freight + Renewable Energy Scenario Side Effects: Feedback Loops (1) Relative GDP and Emissions GDP CO2 Emissions

18. Side Effects: Feedback Loops (2) Relative GDP and Emissions GDP Freight Freight + Renewable Energy CO2 Emissions

19. Side Effects: Tradeoffs (3) Relative Oil Consumption Renewable Energy generation increases average electricity prices and limits the reduction in oil consumption Low electricity prices stimulate the adoption of e.g. hybrid vehicles Freight + Renewable Energy Freight Scenario

20. Conclusions There is no silver bullet to today’s problems; Electrified rail, especially when coupled with renewable energy, is a good option; Side effects and unintended consequences may arise and lead the system into unwanted and uncharted territories; Identifying potential threats early enough, allows to turn them into opportunities.

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