1. 1 Reengineering the SIPP: An Assessment of the Use of Administrative Records Jim Farber and Sally Obenski US Census Bureau CNSTAT Panel January 26, 2007

2. 2 Overview Background on the Dynamics of Economic Well-being System Administrative records assessment methodology and outcome Prototyping methodology and outcome Next steps Conclusions

3. 3 Dynamics of Economic Well-being Goals Cost reduction Improved accuracy Improved timeliness and accessibility Improved relevance  Use of annual data collection  Focused content selection  Lower attrition rates  Integrated administrative data  Improved documentation  Improved processing system  Work closely with disclosure review board  Ongoing content determination process; use of “hooks”  Use of ACS

4. 4 Scoping AR Feasibility Inventory in-house files Review SIPP content requirements Assess availability and usability of in- house files to meet SIPP requirements Begin prototype development

5. 5 Assessment Methodology (1) Identify administrative records that contain content for basic SIPP topics –Demographics –Labor Force –Health Insurance –Assets –General Income –Program Participation Identify and bring together experts on administrative records and on survey content

6. 6 Assessment Methodology (2) For each basic SIPP topic, identify the content goal Align available administrative records content to the survey content goal –Sometimes one-to-one alignment –Sometimes many-to-one or one-to-many Assess administrative records quality issues Recommend administrative records variables for prototypes

7. 7 Assessment Outcome: Demographics Sources: - Social Security Numident - Census 2000 Scope: National Coverage: Social Security Number holders Alignment with SIPP content: –Age, Sex, Race, Hispanic Origin, U.S. Citizenship

8. 8 Assessment Outcome: Labor Force Source: IRS Tax Returns Scope: National Coverage: Filers Alignment with SIPP content: –Total Earnings from job(s) or income (loss) from business(es)

9. 9 Assessment Outcome: Health Insurance Sources: Medicare, Medicaid Scope: National Coverage: Enrollees Alignment with SIPP content: –Nearly all SIPP Medicare items –Does not currently cover Medicare part D –Nearly all SIPP Medicaid items –Current lag of about four years hinders use of Medicaid

10. 10 Assessment Outcome: Assets Sources: IRS Tax and Information Returns Scope: National Coverage: - Filers, - IRS-covered income earners Alignment with SIPP content: –Nearly all aggregate SIPP asset items –Does not have detailed ownership of and income from mortgages

11. 11 Assessment Outcome: General Income Sources:- Social Security Master Beneficiary Record - Supplemental Security Income Record - IRS Tax Returns Scope: National Coverage: Beneficiaries, SSI recipients, filers Alignment with SIPP content: –Many SIPP general income items –Aggregated SIPP Amounts of Unemployment Compensation available from tax data –Other SIPP items available in aggregate from tax data

12. 12 Assessment Outcome: Program Participation Sources:- State-specific program files (TANF, Food Stamps, etc.) - HUD–TRACS Scope:- States of MD, IL, and TX - National for HUD file Coverage: Program participants Alignment with SIPP content: –About a third of the SIPP items –No current source files for energy assistance, school meals, WIC, and some other programs

13. 13 Administrative Records Successes Medicare Enrollment Database (MEDB) Medicare health insurance coverage Master Beneficiary Record (MBR) Work disability and source of general income (e.g., Social Security) IRS Tax and Information Returns Asset ownership, income/earnings from a job, profit from a business, unemployment compensation, receipt of alimony SSA Numident Demographic characteristics such as age, race, Hispanic origin, citizenship Supplemental Security Receipt of Federal/state SSI HUD - TRACS Public housing and receipt of rent subsidies

14. 14 Administrative Records Quality Issues Availability –Many programs run by states, e.g. Food Stamps, TANF –New relationships, regulations, or agreements needed to use some files Time Lag –e.g., national Medicaid file lags by about 4 years Coarseness –Many survey requirements are highly nuanced, requiring detail not in administrative records

15. 15 Spiral Prototyping Methodology Simulate integrated database of survey and administrative records Begin simply: one year of CPS linked to one administrative records file Increase complexity in later prototypes –Link two years of CPS or SIPP to administrative records –Add administrative records variables –Ultimately simulate a near-final database with maximal administrative records input

16. 16 Analyzing the Prototypes Evaluate prototypes in three ways: coverage, accuracy, and disclosure –Disclosure to be addressed more fully in the future Coverage: how many survey respondents can be linked to administrative records? Accuracy: how closely does administrative records content match survey content?

17. 17 Coverage of the Prototypes

18. 18 Accuracy of the Prototypes (1) Absolute Difference in AGE: CPS versus Numident Age DifferencePercentCumulative 089.8 16.796.5 21.497.9 31.299.1 40.499.5 5 – 90.499.9 10+0.2100.1

19. 19 Accuracy of the Prototypes (2) Longitudinal consistency of Medicare enrollment status CPS responses versus Medicare enrollment file Enrollment status compared for 2004 and 2005 Consistent records agree in both years CPS enrollment response is consistent with Medicare file in 2004 and 2005 96.5% CPS enrollment status is not consistent with Medicare file in 2004 and/or 2005 3.5%

20. 20 FY 07 DEWS Research Complete national prototypes by including benefit data and modeled income data Develop state prototypes by linking as much state program data as possible Build decision process prototype for determining how AR could be integrated into DEWS design

21. 21 State Prototype Design (1) Maryland and Illinois state data and selected federal files Some program data are in-house, e.g.: Some data need to be acquired, e.g.: WIC, school meals, job training Food stampsState Medicaid Temporary Cash AssistanceUnemployment Insurance Public housing assistanceSupplemental Security

22. 22 State Prototype Design (2) Link multiple years of SIPP with state administrative records Create increasingly larger prototypes as data become available Evaluate state prototypes for coverage, accuracy, and disclosure

23. 23 Initial Process Prototype Identify potential uses of administrative records in all phases of DEWS survey operations, e.g.: –Quality assurance –Editing and imputation Identify survey requirements needed for possible use of administrative records

24. 24 Conclusions Administrative records could help to inexpensively replace some SIPP content Administrative records have quality issues like lag and coverage Administrative records can not fully replace a field survey An integrated approach with survey data and administrative records data is one approach to re-engineer the SIPP

25. 25 James Farber Phone: 301-763-1844 James.Farber@Census.gov U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE U.S. Census Bureau Washington, DC 20233 Contact Information