1. NextGen and the Weather Information Database Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology Dec 5, 2008 Steve Abelman Aviation Meteorology Focal Point Office of Science and Technology

2. 2 Overview NextGen 101 What is the Weather Information Database (WIDB) and the Single Authoritative Source Why NOAA? What are we doing now The roadmap ahead A detailed roadmap to IOC Leveraging existing capabilities Broader benefits to NOAA Science Issues and the 4-D Cube VA in the NextGen Paradigm Summary NextGen 101 What is the Weather Information Database (WIDB) and the Single Authoritative Source Why NOAA? What are we doing now The roadmap ahead A detailed roadmap to IOC Leveraging existing capabilities Broader benefits to NOAA Science Issues and the 4-D Cube VA in the NextGen Paradigm Summary

3. 3 NextGen 101

4. 4 Weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic delays within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS) The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has determined two thirds of this is preventable with better weather information "A key finding, based on an analysis of several 2005-2006 convective events, is that as much as two-thirds of the weather related delay is potentially avoidable." -Research, Engineering and Development Advisory Committee; Report of the Weather-ATM Integration Working Group; Oct3, 2007 Weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic delays within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS) The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has determined two thirds of this is preventable with better weather information "A key finding, based on an analysis of several 2005-2006 convective events, is that as much as two-thirds of the weather related delay is potentially avoidable." -Research, Engineering and Development Advisory Committee; Report of the Weather-ATM Integration Working Group; Oct3, 2007

5. 5 NextGen 101 “The total cost of domestic air traffic delays to the U.S. economy was as much as $41 billion for 2007.” Air-traffic delays raised airlines' operating costs by $19 billion. Delays cost passengers time worth up to $12 billion. Indirect costs of delay to other industries added roughly $10 billion to the total burden. Your Flight Has Been Delayed Again; Congressional Joint Economic Committee; May 2008 “The total cost of domestic air traffic delays to the U.S. economy was as much as $41 billion for 2007.” Air-traffic delays raised airlines' operating costs by $19 billion. Delays cost passengers time worth up to $12 billion. Indirect costs of delay to other industries added roughly $10 billion to the total burden. Your Flight Has Been Delayed Again; Congressional Joint Economic Committee; May 2008

6. 6 NextGen 101 NextGen goals are not achievable without improving integration of weather information into decision support systems NextGen weather vision (a major paradigm shift) is focused on: Providing a multiple user common weather picture Consistent and reliable weather information An improved weather information data storage approach containing observation and forecast data (i.e., the WIDB or the “4 Dimensional Weather Cube”) enabling NextGen dissemination capabilities) NextGen goals are not achievable without improving integration of weather information into decision support systems NextGen weather vision (a major paradigm shift) is focused on: Providing a multiple user common weather picture Consistent and reliable weather information An improved weather information data storage approach containing observation and forecast data (i.e., the WIDB or the “4 Dimensional Weather Cube”) enabling NextGen dissemination capabilities)

7. 7 NextGen 101; Key Themes An integrated and nationally consistent common weather picture for observation, analysis, and forecast data available to all system users Direct integration of weather information into operational decision making processes An integrated and nationally consistent common weather picture for observation, analysis, and forecast data available to all system users Direct integration of weather information into operational decision making processes

8. 8 NextGen 101; Key Themes A Net-centric (net-enabled) capability is envisioned: “Network Enabled”… An information network that makes information available, securable, and usable in real time Information may be pushed to known users and is available to be pulled by others Weather information sharing is two-way “Virtual” repository with no single physical database or computer Conceptually unified source distributed among multiple physical locations and suppliers, of which NOAA is the leading data supplier A Net-centric (net-enabled) capability is envisioned: “Network Enabled”… An information network that makes information available, securable, and usable in real time Information may be pushed to known users and is available to be pulled by others Weather information sharing is two-way “Virtual” repository with no single physical database or computer Conceptually unified source distributed among multiple physical locations and suppliers, of which NOAA is the leading data supplier

9. 9 NextGen Weather Basics Today NextGen (new requirements) Not integrated into aviation decision support systems (DSS) Inconsistent/conflicting on a national scale Low temporal resolution (for aviation decision making purposes) Disseminated in minutes Updated by schedule Fixed product formats (graphic or text) Totally integrated into DSS Nationally consistent High temporal resolution Disseminated in seconds Updated by events Flexible formats

10. 10 What is the WIDB? The WIDB (aka the 4-Dimensional Weather Data Cube) will contain: Continuously updated weather observations (surface to low earth orbit, including space weather and ocean parameters) High resolution (space and time) analysis and forecast information (conventional weather parameters from numerical models) Aviation impact parameters for IOC (2013) Turbulence Icing Convection Ceiling and visibility Wake vortex The WIDB of the future will contain “all” weather data, not just aviation parameters. The WIDB (aka the 4-Dimensional Weather Data Cube) will contain: Continuously updated weather observations (surface to low earth orbit, including space weather and ocean parameters) High resolution (space and time) analysis and forecast information (conventional weather parameters from numerical models) Aviation impact parameters for IOC (2013) Turbulence Icing Convection Ceiling and visibility Wake vortex The WIDB of the future will contain “all” weather data, not just aviation parameters.

11. 11 What is the 4-D Weather Single Authoritative Source? The 4-D Wx Single Authoritative Source (SAS): Is only a portion of the WIDB Provides a common weather picture for National Air Space (NAS) participants (Airlines, DoD, FAA, etc.) Is the basis for all aviation decisions by Air Traffic Management (ATM) in the FAA Is formed by merger of model data, automated gridded algorithms, climatology and observational data, and meteorologist input/data manipulation to ensure consistency and accuracy The 4-D Wx Single Authoritative Source (SAS): Is only a portion of the WIDB Provides a common weather picture for National Air Space (NAS) participants (Airlines, DoD, FAA, etc.) Is the basis for all aviation decisions by Air Traffic Management (ATM) in the FAA Is formed by merger of model data, automated gridded algorithms, climatology and observational data, and meteorologist input/data manipulation to ensure consistency and accuracy

12. 12 The WIDB: A Conceptual Model WIDB Custom Graphic Generators Custom Graphic Generators Integration into User Decisions Decision Support Systems Decision Support Systems Custom Alphanumeric Generators Custom Alphanumeric Generators Observations Numerical Modeling Systems Numerical Modeling Systems Statistical Forecasting Systems Statistical Forecasting Systems NWS Forecaster NWS Forecaster Forecasting Automated Forecast Systems Automated Forecast Systems Forecast Integration 4D Wx SAS Radars Aircraft Surface Satellites Soundings

13. 13 Why NOAA? NOAA/NWS, through the JPDO’s Senior Policy Committee, has committed to build the WIDB for NextGen Weather NWS AA has echoed this commitment to Congress NOAA/NWS, through the JPDO’s Senior Policy Committee, has committed to build the WIDB for NextGen Weather NWS AA has echoed this commitment to Congress

14. 14 Why NOAA? NOAA is the most logical integrator and operator of this data cube based on its: Extensive experience with data ingest and assimilation Ownership of major observation and modeling capabilities Experienced meteorological workforce Legislative mandate to provide weather to the FAA Existing related capabilities such as AWIPS and NDFD NOAA is the most logical integrator and operator of this data cube based on its: Extensive experience with data ingest and assimilation Ownership of major observation and modeling capabilities Experienced meteorological workforce Legislative mandate to provide weather to the FAA Existing related capabilities such as AWIPS and NDFD

15. 15 Why NOAA? “NOAA stands ready to accept the role as the Office of Primary Responsibility for Weather Information Services as this responsibility is core to NOAA’s mission, and we are confident that [the IWP] will enable us to better align NOAA’s weather portfolio with NextGen” Mary Glackin; April 7, 2008 “NOAA stands ready to accept the role as the Office of Primary Responsibility for Weather Information Services as this responsibility is core to NOAA’s mission, and we are confident that [the IWP] will enable us to better align NOAA’s weather portfolio with NextGen” Mary Glackin; April 7, 2008 Integrated Work Plan Defines Our Role

16. 16 So What’s Happening Now? Multi-agency Subject Matter Expert teams have put together reports on the 4-D Cube which address: Policy issues - scope, roles and responsibilities, cost apportionment Functional Requirements: an initial set of requirements for the 4-D Wx SAS (still a living document with updates expected). Performance requirements work (how good is good enough) has begun as well NextGen Integrated Work Plan (IWP) v1.0, also a living document Weather Working Group and Sub-teams Multi-agency Subject Matter Expert teams have put together reports on the 4-D Cube which address: Policy issues - scope, roles and responsibilities, cost apportionment Functional Requirements: an initial set of requirements for the 4-D Wx SAS (still a living document with updates expected). Performance requirements work (how good is good enough) has begun as well NextGen Integrated Work Plan (IWP) v1.0, also a living document Weather Working Group and Sub-teams More info on these JPDO initiatives available www.jpdo.gov

17. 17 So What’s Happening Now? Other multi-agency initiatives: NextGen Network Enabled Weather (NNEW) IOC Development Team Environmental Information Team – What’s in the Cube IT and Enterprise Services Team – Cube “plumbing” Live Demonstrations Other multi-agency initiatives: NextGen Network Enabled Weather (NNEW) IOC Development Team Environmental Information Team – What’s in the Cube IT and Enterprise Services Team – Cube “plumbing” Live Demonstrations

18. 18 The Roadmap Ahead Initial Operational Capability (2013) Integrated environmental information sources Meteorologist oversight of gridded data Common data standards and protocols Initial integration of diverse weather elements into decision support tools Intermediate Capability (2016) Improved modeling and science enables higher resolution more accurate information Full Network compatibility of environmental information Direct integration of weather into Air Traffic Management Systems Full Operational Capability (2022) All NextGen requirements met and benefits achieved High resolution, nested scale forecasts available for all elements Full network connectivity ensures consistent information use across service areas and user groups Initial Operational Capability (2013) Integrated environmental information sources Meteorologist oversight of gridded data Common data standards and protocols Initial integration of diverse weather elements into decision support tools Intermediate Capability (2016) Improved modeling and science enables higher resolution more accurate information Full Network compatibility of environmental information Direct integration of weather into Air Traffic Management Systems Full Operational Capability (2022) All NextGen requirements met and benefits achieved High resolution, nested scale forecasts available for all elements Full network connectivity ensures consistent information use across service areas and user groups

19. 19 The Roadmap Ahead Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS) Extremely popular aviation weather web service Not just a display capability Already has many NextGen data service capabilities Data service easily capable of supporting the standards and protocols envisioned with NextGen Has existing capability to support 4D data cube Slices, dices, and returns a subset of data (flight paths or subset cubes) Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS) Extremely popular aviation weather web service Not just a display capability Already has many NextGen data service capabilities Data service easily capable of supporting the standards and protocols envisioned with NextGen Has existing capability to support 4D data cube Slices, dices, and returns a subset of data (flight paths or subset cubes) http://adds.aviationweather.gov/

20. 20 The Roadmap Ahead National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) Could be called the “SAS” of public weather forecast mission Net-centric approach Need to add aviation parameters in the vertical Logistically very complicated if to be populated by each WFO National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) Could be called the “SAS” of public weather forecast mission Net-centric approach Need to add aviation parameters in the vertical Logistically very complicated if to be populated by each WFO

21. 21 The Roadmap Ahead Interactive Calibration of Aviation Grids in 4 Dimensions (IC4D) Aviation weather research community (NCAR) now producing 4-D (x, y, z, t) gridded guidance for parameters such as turbulence and icing (RUC2-based) operational forecasters may be able to add skill to the forecast guidance Interacting with a 4-D data set containing multiple parameters presents a huge challenge, operationally Alaska AAWU working with IC4D and has provided positive feedback Interactive Calibration of Aviation Grids in 4 Dimensions (IC4D) Aviation weather research community (NCAR) now producing 4-D (x, y, z, t) gridded guidance for parameters such as turbulence and icing (RUC2-based) operational forecasters may be able to add skill to the forecast guidance Interacting with a 4-D data set containing multiple parameters presents a huge challenge, operationally Alaska AAWU working with IC4D and has provided positive feedback

22. 22 The Roadmap Ahead Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) Hourly updates of GFS MOS data for aviation Uses hourly observations (METAR, lightning, and radar data) to update MOS guidance Statistically outperforming persistence and MOS during early forecast periods Currently have gridded probabilistic thunderstorm forecasts Moving toward other gridded products, including probabilistic ceiling height and visibility forecasts Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) Hourly updates of GFS MOS data for aviation Uses hourly observations (METAR, lightning, and radar data) to update MOS guidance Statistically outperforming persistence and MOS during early forecast periods Currently have gridded probabilistic thunderstorm forecasts Moving toward other gridded products, including probabilistic ceiling height and visibility forecasts

23. 23 The Roadmap Ahead Auto-nowcaster a program to determine the role of the forecaster in providing value- added enhancements to automated, gridded aviation convective products goal is to improve the consistency, reliability, and accuracy of 0-2 hour convective forecast products for automated aviation weather digital products (4-D grids) for the NAS being considered in 2009 as part of a multi-agency NextGen demo in Florida Auto-nowcaster a program to determine the role of the forecaster in providing value- added enhancements to automated, gridded aviation convective products goal is to improve the consistency, reliability, and accuracy of 0-2 hour convective forecast products for automated aviation weather digital products (4-D grids) for the NAS being considered in 2009 as part of a multi-agency NextGen demo in Florida

24. 24 4-D Weather Cube Broader Benefits to NOAA Aviation driven consistency and accuracy requirements will improve all NWS services Consistency challenges not unique to aviation More accurate public forecasts because of aviation driven high resolution modeling requirements Improved severe weather lead times because of aviation driven convective forecasts Implements “Warn on Forecast” technologies Aviation driven consistency and accuracy requirements will improve all NWS services Consistency challenges not unique to aviation More accurate public forecasts because of aviation driven high resolution modeling requirements Improved severe weather lead times because of aviation driven convective forecasts Implements “Warn on Forecast” technologies

25. 25 4-D Weather Cube Broader Benefits to NOAA Improved access to all NWS products and services via the cube Supports automated decision assistance tools for other agencies and entities beyond FAA IT and Data Management enhancements Establish a central repository and access for critical NWS products and services beyond aviation Support GEOSS requirements Enhances continuity of operations Extends the AWIPS enterprise services into a ‘system of systems’ linking AWIPS, MADIS, NDFD, CCS and NEXRAD Improved access to all NWS products and services via the cube Supports automated decision assistance tools for other agencies and entities beyond FAA IT and Data Management enhancements Establish a central repository and access for critical NWS products and services beyond aviation Support GEOSS requirements Enhances continuity of operations Extends the AWIPS enterprise services into a ‘system of systems’ linking AWIPS, MADIS, NDFD, CCS and NEXRAD

26. 26 Science Issues and the 4-D Wx Data Cube Consistency Convective Modeling – Warn of Forecast Model Enhancements and Improvements Verification Consistency Convective Modeling – Warn of Forecast Model Enhancements and Improvements Verification

27. 27 The “Consistency” Issue The FAA requirements consider consistency and accuracy Consistency Challenges: Spatial Internal “Representativeness” The FAA requirements consider consistency and accuracy Consistency Challenges: Spatial Internal “Representativeness”

28. 28 The “Consistency” Issue Today our forecasts can send conflicting information to our customers: Public: This Afternoon: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. West wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Aviation: KXXX 271723Z 271818 17007KT P6SM FEW090 BKN140 FM2000 28010KT P6SM VCTS BKN040CB BKN100 FM0100 32012KT P6SM SCT035 BKN100… Today our forecasts can send conflicting information to our customers: Public: This Afternoon: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. West wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Aviation: KXXX 271723Z 271818 17007KT P6SM FEW090 BKN140 FM2000 28010KT P6SM VCTS BKN040CB BKN100 FM0100 32012KT P6SM SCT035 BKN100…

29. 29 The “Consistency” Issue Forecaster produced products, required by the FAA, include AIRMETs and SIGMETs in the upper right. Comparing these products to operationally approved supplemental products, like the Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) regularly yields results that conflict. NextGen requires rapidly updated, higher resolution products like GTG, but how will it compare to the AIRMET/SIGMET? Forecaster produced products, required by the FAA, include AIRMETs and SIGMETs in the upper right. Comparing these products to operationally approved supplemental products, like the Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) regularly yields results that conflict. NextGen requires rapidly updated, higher resolution products like GTG, but how will it compare to the AIRMET/SIGMET?

30. 30 Convective Modeling Aviation requirements are demanding higher resolution models Convection in the short term time frame (0-2 or 4 hours) is key Resolution requirements based on Terminal – within 100km radius of an airport, aka Super Density Operations (SDO) Enroute – within the National Airspace System (NAS), aka Trajectory Based Operations (TBO) Global – outside the NAS Examples of resolution requirements are detailed on the next slides. These requirements need additional user validation and should not be considered “final” Aviation requirements are demanding higher resolution models Convection in the short term time frame (0-2 or 4 hours) is key Resolution requirements based on Terminal – within 100km radius of an airport, aka Super Density Operations (SDO) Enroute – within the National Airspace System (NAS), aka Trajectory Based Operations (TBO) Global – outside the NAS Examples of resolution requirements are detailed on the next slides. These requirements need additional user validation and should not be considered “final”

31. 31 Model Enhancements and Improvements Production Timelines – (Estimate…not a final product!) Terminal (SDO) Non-Terminal (TBO) Global Convective Other Wx Convective 0-15 min 1 min 15 min 1 hour 15-45 min 5 min 45 min - 2 hrs 10 min 1 hour 2-4 hrs 15 min 4-60 hrs 1 hour1 hours 60hrs-14 days 3 hours 6 hours ClimatologyTBD Note: Climatology = 15-90 days. No Temporal Resolution has been specified.

32. 32 Model Enhancements and Improvements Production Timelines - (Estimate…not a final product!) Terminal Non-Terminal (TBO) Global Convective Other Wx Refresh Rate LatencyRefreshLatencyRefreshLatencyRefreshLatency 0-2 hrs 5 min 7.5 min 30 min Every 3 hrs 60 min 2-4 hrs 7.5 min 30 min Every 3 hrs 60 min 4-10 hrs 30 min 60 min30 min60 min30 min Every 3 hrs 60 min 10-24 hrs Every 3 hrs 30 min Every 3 hrs 60 min Every 3 hrs 60 min Every 3 hrs 120 min 24-26 hrs Every 6 hrs 60 min Every 6 hrs 90 min Every 6 hrs 90 min Every 6 hrs 120 min 60hrs-14 days Every 24 hrs 2 hrs after model run time Every 24 hrs 2 hrs after model run time Every 24 hrs 2 hrs after model run time Every 24 hrs 2 hrs after model run time ClimatologyMonthlyOne DayMonthlyOne DayMonthlyOne DayMonthlyOne Day

33. 33 Verification NextGen suggests verification schemes that measure operational impacts Move away from traditional verification methodology like PoD and FAR An example is the Weather Impact Traffic Index, WITI Measures efficiency of the NAS operation, but weather is only one factor Factors in airport capacity, time of day, traffic corridor, etc… NWS/FAA is collaboratively working on the “Terminal Forecast WITI” which is a forecast of the NAS operation at a terminal or a corridor GSD also working on the Network-Enabled Verification Service (NEVS)….

34. 34 NextGen and VA So how will NextGen and the WIDB incorporate VA information?: Gridded data forecasts? Probabilistic information? Observation systems? VA in the WIDB at IOC?

35. 35 Summary NextGen will require significant changes in the way weather information is produced The NextGen paradigm suggests that most weather information will be assimilated into decision support tools and the decision making process NOAA has been designated as the Office of Primary Responsibility (OPR) to build and deploy a 4-D Weather Data Cube (WIDB) by IOC (2013) and beyond Even though NOAA is the OPR, multi-agency teams are working all the issues involved with the cube The FAA is leading the Integration effort and this is just getting started NextGen will require significant changes in the way weather information is produced The NextGen paradigm suggests that most weather information will be assimilated into decision support tools and the decision making process NOAA has been designated as the Office of Primary Responsibility (OPR) to build and deploy a 4-D Weather Data Cube (WIDB) by IOC (2013) and beyond Even though NOAA is the OPR, multi-agency teams are working all the issues involved with the cube The FAA is leading the Integration effort and this is just getting started

36. 36 Summary There are many existing initiatives that will be leveraged/expanded on as we move toward the initial WIDB and/or the 4-D Wx SAS The WIDB will clearly have benefits to NOAA and the NWS beyond aviation There are many important science issues, including consistency, model resolution, observation strategies, and verification which must be addressed as we move toward a comprehensive 4-D Wx Cube There are many existing initiatives that will be leveraged/expanded on as we move toward the initial WIDB and/or the 4-D Wx SAS The WIDB will clearly have benefits to NOAA and the NWS beyond aviation There are many important science issues, including consistency, model resolution, observation strategies, and verification which must be addressed as we move toward a comprehensive 4-D Wx Cube