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Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 16, 2008 TELUS 2009 Targets investor conference call.

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Presentation on theme: "Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 16, 2008 TELUS 2009 Targets investor conference call."— Presentation transcript:

1 Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 16, 2008 TELUS 2009 Targets investor conference call

2 This session and answers to questions contain forward-looking statements that require assumptions about expected future events and financial and operating results that are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. There is significant risk that assumptions, predictions and other forward-looking statements will not prove to be accurate. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and assumptions as a number of factors could cause actual future results, conditions, actions or events to differ materially from the targets, expectations, estimates or intentions expressed. Except as required by law, TELUS disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements, and reserves the right to change, at any time at its sole discretion, its current practice of updating annual guidance. See Key Assumptions and Forward Looking Statements in TELUS Dec. 16, 2008 Targets news release. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially include, but are not limited to: competition (including more active price competition and the likelihood of new wireless competitors beginning to offer services in 2009 following the AWS spectrum auction); economic growth and fluctuations (including the global credit crisis, and pension performance, funding and expenses); capital expenditure levels (increased in 2009 and potentially future years by the Company’s fourth generation (4G) wireless deployment strategy and any new Industry Canada wireless spectrum auctions); financing and debt requirements (including ability to carry out refinancing activities and fund share repurchases); tax matters (including acceleration or deferral of required payments of significant amounts of cash taxes); human resource developments; business integrations and internal reorganizations (including post- acquisition integration of Emergis); technology (including reliance on systems and information technology, broadband and wireless technology options and choice of suppliers, expected technology and evolution path and transition to 4G technology, expected future benefits and performance of HSPA (high speed packet access) / LTE (long-term evolution) wireless technology, successful implementation of the network build and sharing arrangement with Bell Canada to achieve cost efficiencies and reduce deployment risks, successful deployment and operation of new wireless networks and successful introduction of new products, services and supporting systems); regulatory approvals and developments (including interpretation and application of tower sharing and roaming rules, the design and impact of future spectrum auctions, the new media proceeding and possible changes to foreign ownership restrictions); process risks (including conversion of legacy systems and billing system integrations); health, safety and environmental developments; litigation and legal matters; business continuity events (including manmade and natural threats); any prospective acquisitions or divestitures; and other risk factors discussed herein and listed from time to time in TELUS’ reports and public disclosure documents, including its annual report, annual information form, and other filings with securities commissions in Canada (on www.sedar.com) and in its filings in the United States, including Form 40-F (on EDGAR at www.sec.gov). For further information, see Section 10: Risks and risk management in TELUS’ 2007 annual Management’s discussion and analysis, as well as updates reported in section 10 of TELUS’ 2008 quarterly Management’s discussion and analyses. TELUS forward looking statements

3  2008 guidance update  2009 assumptions & targets  Summary  Questions and answers Agenda

4 2008 segmented guidance – update Wireline 2008 previous guidance Nov.7/08 2008 revised guidance Revenue$5.025 - 5.05Bapprox $5.025B EBITDA$1.75 - 1.775Bunchanged 4 Segmented EBITDA guidance unchanged Wireless 2008 previous guidance Nov.7/08 2008 revised guidance Revenue$4.65 - 4.675Bapprox $4.625B EBITDA$1.975 - 2.025Bunchanged

5 2008 consolidated guidance - updated 2008 previous guidance Nov.7/08 2008 revised guidance Revenue$9.675 - $9.725Bapprox $9.65B EBITDA 1 $3.725 - $3.8Bunchanged EPS – basic$3.45 - $3.60unchanged Capex (excl. $882M for AWS spectrum) approx $1.9Bapprox $1.825B 5 EBITDA & EPS guidance unchanged Lower capital expenditures reflects $75M deferral to 2009 1 2008E EBITDA includes an estimated $55-60M of restructuring expenses versus $20M in 2007.

6 2009 targets

7  Strong wireless industry penetration growth similar to 2008 of 4.5 pts  Downward pressure on TELUS wireless ARPU to continue  Competitive wireless entry from most new entrants to begin in 2010 with possible entry beginning Q4-09  Ongoing competitive activity from cable-TV / VoIP players  Ongoing focus on efficiency initiatives with $50-$75M restructuring & workforce reduction costs (approx $55-$60M in 2008)  Exchange rate to average $0.80 USD/CAD  Sensitivity: EBITDA +/- $8M with +/- $0.01 move in rate  Statutory tax rate of 30 to 31% (down 50 bps from 2008)  Net cash tax payment of approx $320-$350M 2009 target assumptions 7

8 Pension assumptions 2009 pension expense and funding to increase ~$100M Pension funding fully tax deductible 8 Defined Benefit (DB) 2008E2009E Discount rate5.5%7.0% Long-term expected return7.25%no change Pension expense/(recovery)$(100M)nil Pension funding $97M$200M Total (incl. DB and Defined Contr.) Pension expense/(recovery)$(35M)$70M Pension funding$160M$265M

9 2008E2009E ~4.625 4.975 to 5.1 2009 wireless revenue target ($B) 9 Increase of 8 to 10% driven by subscriber additions and data revenue growth

10 2008E2009E 1.975 to 2.025 2.1 to 2.175 2009 wireless EBITDA target ($B) 10 Growth of 5 to 9%

11 2008E2009E ~5.025 5.05 to 5.175 2009 wireline revenue target ($B) 11 Growth of up to 3% as data growth offsets increasing competitive intensity

12 2008E2009E 1.75 to 1.775 1.65 to 1.725 2009 wireline EBITDA target ($B) 12 Target reflects increased pension expense of $100M Note: 2008 and 2009 EBITDA includes $55-$60M and $50-$75M in restructuring costs, respectively.

13 2008E 1,750 to 1,775 2009 wireline EBITDA target ($M) 13 2009E target 1,650 to 1,725 Excluding incremental pension expense, underlying wireline EBITDA growth of up to 3% Incremental DB pension expense ~(100) 0 to 50 EBITDA growth

14 Operating efficiency program (OEP) update  Announced at Q3 acceleration of annual OEP initiatives  Managing costs in declining parts of our business to maintain performance and free up resources for growth areas of business  In Q4 have exceeded 2008 annual OEP guidance  Restructuring cost estimate increased to $55 to $60 million (from $50 million)  Multiple OEP initiatives underway continuing into 2009  2009 targets include $50 to $75 million of restructuring costs, predominantly in wireline segment 14 Operating efficiency initiatives enhance operating performance and fund growth investments

15 2008E 2009E 9.1 ~9.65 2007 8.7 2006 2009 consolidated revenue target ($B) 15 10.025 to 10.275 Increase of 4 to 6.5% led by wireless

16 2008E2009E 2009 consolidated EBITDA target ($B) 16 2009 EBITDA growth of up to 4% Note: 2008 and 2009 EBITDA includes $55-$60M and $50-$75M in restructuring costs, respectively. 3.725 to 3.8 3.75 to 3.9

17 2008E 1 3,763 2009 consolidated EBITDA target ($M) 17 2009E target 3,750 to 3,900 Excluding incremental pension expense, underlying EBITDA growth of 2 to 6% EBITDA growth ~(100) 87 to 237 Incremental DB pension expense 1 Midpoint of 2008E guidance range

18 2007 1 2008E2006 2009 EPS ($) 18 Positive tax related adjustments 1 2007 EPS (adjusted) excludes non-cash charge of $0.32 per share for the net cash settlement feature of options Underlying 2009 EPS growth of up to 10% 2009E 3.33 4.11 3.45 to 3.60 3.40 to 3.70 2.83 3.33 3.30 to 3.45

19 1 Midpoint of updated 2008 guidance 2009 EPS continuity ($) 19 2009 EBITDA growth partially offset by pension and financing costs ~3.53 ~3.38  ~0.15 2008E 1 Tax Related adj. 2008E normal. EBITDA growth  0.25 to 0.55  0.22  0.06 PensionFinancing Lower o/s shares & Other 3.40 to 3.70 2009E  0.05 Depr & Amort  0.03

20 2008E 2009E ~1.825 ~2.05 2009 consolidated capex target ($B) 20 TELUS continues to invest prudently for future growth, including broadband wireless and wireline network builds

21 2009 capex components 21  $75M of capital expenditures originally planned for 2008 deferred to 2009  National next generation wireless shared network build  Investments in broadband network infrastructure to improve high speed coverage & develop new applications  Success based investments to support new contract wins  Investments in cost efficiency initiatives Increased investment focused on strategic growth initiatives

22  Quarterly dividend previously increased by 5.6% to 47.5 cents per share per quarter for Jan 2, 2009 payment  Planned renewal of NCIB as early as Dec. 20, 2008 *  To allow for repurchase of up to 4M common and 4M non-voting shares  Purchases to be managed so TELUS remains within long-term financial policy targets * Subject to acceptance by TSX 22 Return of capital Fifth annual dividend increase

23  Maintaining strong financial policies and credit ratings:  Dividend payout ratio of 45 to 55% of sustainable earnings  Net debt to EBITDA of 1.5 to 2.0 times  Credit ratings in range of BBB+ to A- or equivalent Financial policy guidelines 23 Firm commitment to our consistent long-term financial policy guidelines

24 TELUS’ funding position TELUS’ strong balance sheet a result of prudent long-term financial policies 24  Committed $2B credit facility does not expire until May 2012  TELUS confirmed today commitments from Canadian bank syndicate for renewal of $700M 364-day credit facility  Strong position with sustainable cash flows and ample liquidity  Could term-out some existing short-term financing if conditions become advantageous

25 TELUS long-term debt maturity schedule 25 Long Term Debt Deferred FX Hedge Liability No significant long-term debt maturities until 2011 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019+ C$ billions Outstanding amount on 2012 credit facility (as at Sept. 30, 2008)

26 26 Summary – building on strength Continuing to invest for future based on prudent financial policies and funding strength  2008 guidance update:  Revenues and capex revised downward while EBITDA and EPS unchanged  2009 targets reflect  Continued revenue growth  Continued execution on operating efficiency initiatives  EBITDA moderately up excluding DB pension expense impact  EPS, excluding tax adjustments, to increase by up to 10%  Capex reflects growth investments in new wireless network, broadband, and success based contracts

27 investor relations 1-800-667-4871 telus.com ir@telus.com Questions?

28  EBITDA: earnings, after restructuring and workforce reduction costs, before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization  Capital intensity: capex divided by total revenue  Cash flow: EBITDA less capex  Free cash flow: EBITDA, adding Restructuring and workforce reduction costs, cash interest received and excess of share compensation expense over share compensation payments, subtracting cash interest paid, cash taxes, capital expenditures, cash restructuring payments, and cash related to Other expenses such as charitable donations and securitization fees Appendix - definitions TELUS definitions for non-GAAP measures 28

29 ~(485) 2009E Net Cash Interest $3,750 to 3,900 EBITDA ($M) ~(40) Other 1 : Free Cash Flow 1 Includes restructuring expense (net of cash payments), share based compensation (net of cash payments) and cash payments related to charitable donations and securitization fees ~(2,050) Capex 840 to 990 Appendix – 2009E Free cash flow Net cash tax payment (320) to (350) Cash pension contribution (in excess of expense) ~(200) Free Cash Flow ( incl. cash pension contribution) 640 to 790 29


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