1. Update on NCAR Auto-Nowcaster Juneau, AK

2. The Auto-Nowcaster System An expert system which produces short-term (0-1 hr) forecasts of thunderstorm initiation, growth and decay using fuzzy logic. Recent developments have allowed human users (i.e. forecasters) to input information into the system in a relatively quick and simple fashion. A test of the updated system in an operational environment is taking place at the Dallas/Fort Worth WFO.

3. Detection and extrapolation of surface convergence boundaries …. ….that trigger thunderstorm initiation and impact storm evolution. The Auto-Nowcaster System is unique in its ability to provide nowcasts of storm initiation by…..

4. Example of Auto-Nowcaster Initiation Forecast 1 hour forecastVerification Initiation nowcasts extrapolation nowcasts

5. Data Sets Radar WSR-88D Satellite Mesonet Profiler Sounding Numerical Model Lightning Analysis Algorithms Predictor Fields Forecaster Input Fuzzy Logic Algorithm - Membership functions - weights - Combined likelihood field Final Prediction Flow Chart for the Auto-Nowcaster System

6. Data Sets Radar WSR-88D Satellite Mesonet Profiler Sounding Numerical Model Lightning Analysis Algorithms Predictor Fields Forecaster Input Fuzzy Logic Algorithm - Membership functions - weights - Combined likelihood field Final Prediction Flow Chart for the Auto-Nowcaster System

7. Convergence line Example of fuzzy logic Predictor Field 1.5 Likelihood Lifting Zone Membership Function Lifting Zone Likelihood Yes No.5 0

8. Convergence Predictor Field 2 Membership Function Convergence Likelihood.1.2.3.2.1 Likelihood

9. Cumulus clouds Predictor Field 3.4 -.5 Likelihood Membership Function Cumulus cloud type Likelihood.4 1.8 -.5

10. Likelihood 1 Likelihood 2 Likelihood 3 Weight 1Weight 2 Weight 3 Σ Final combined likelihood of initiation

11. Environmental conditions (RUC) –Frontal likelihood –Layered stability –CAPE (max between 900 and 700 mb) –Mean 875 to 725 mb Relative Humidity Boundary-layer –Convergence –LI (based on METARS) –Vertical velocity along boundary (maxW) –Boundary-relative steering flow –New storm development along boundary Clouds –Clear or Cumulus –Vertical develop as observed by drop in IR temps Blue Regions - Little chance of storm development Green Regions - Moderate likelihood Red Regions - Areas of forecast initiation Predictor Fields used for Combined Likelihood of Initiation

12. 60 Minute Initation (rules with satellite data) Wt: 0.17 Range: -0.085 to 0.17 Wt: 0.20 Range: -0.20 to 0.02 Wt: 0.17 Range: -0.17 to 0.17 Wt: 0.10 Range: 0 to 0.10 Wt: 0.08 Range: -0.02 to 0.08 Wt: 0.16 Range: -0.08 to 0.16

13. 60 Minute Initation (rules with satellite data)Cont. Wt: 0.20 Range: -0.2 to 0.2 Wt: 0.20 Range: 0 to 0.20 Wt: 0.20 Range: 0 to 0.20 Wt: 0.25 Range: 0 to 0.25 Wt: 0.15 Range: 0 to 0.15

14. 60 Minute Initation (rules with satellite data)Cont. Lake: Wt: 0.10 Range: -0.10 to 0 Sat_Clear: Wt: 0.40 Range: -0.40 to 0 Boundary Collision: Wt: 0.12 Range: 0 to 0.12 Initiation Levels: 0.70 => Init 1 0.90 => Init 2 1.20 => Init 3

15. Predictor Fields Large-Scale Environment B-L characteristics Satellite Cloud Typing Boundary characteristics Cumulus development Storm motion and trends

16. Predictor Fields Large-Scale Environment B-L characteristics Satellite Cloud Typing Boundary characteristics Cumulus development Storm motion and trends

17. Why do we need a forecaster in the loop?? Forecasters see the larger picture –Conceptual Models –Ignore bad data points –Understand limitations of NWP and observations

18. FAA RCWF Domain June 12, 2003 Forecaster Entered Boundary

19. Draw Tool

21. Entering a convergence boundary in real time is as simple as this demonstration!

22. Forecaster-tools: Boundary Entry

23. Forecaster Entered Polygons

24. Weather Forecast Office Washington DC (Sterling, VA) Sydney Australia Forecast Office U. S. Army White Sands Missile Range Central U. S. for the FAA Where has the Auto-nowcaster been demonstrated ? Process of being transferred to: Bureau Meteorology Beijing China U.S National Weather Service – Dallas/Fort Worth Weather Forecast Office AWIPS

25. Auto-Nowcaster at Ft. Worth WFO

26. On this day, dryline was moving in from the west. Below is an example of one of the Area Weather Updates that they put out on that day: AREA WEATHER UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 310 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2005 > WARNING DECISION UPDATE FOR NORTH TEXAS MESOANALYSIS PROGRAMS SHOW 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF DRYLINE. THUS...CU/DEVELOPING STORMS ALONG/E OF DRYLINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. STORM INITIATION TOOL ALSO SUGGESTS HIGH POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SW...OVER CORYELL/LAMPASAS COUNTY AREA. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND AT LEAST MID-LEVEL MESOS. AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO THE EVENING...A MORE LINEAR MODE IS EXPECTED. Auto-Nowcaster at Ft. Worth WFO 05 April 2005

27. Ft. Worth WFO 05 April 2005 Forecast: 2003 Z Radar Image: 2003 Z Forecast: 2003 Z Radar Image: 2108 Z

28. Ft. Worth WFO 05 April 2005 Forecast: 2044 Z Radar Image: 2044 Z Forecast: 2044 Z Radar Image: 2142 Z

29. Ft. Worth WFO 05 April 2005

30. Ft. Worth WFO 25 April 2005 On this day there was a dryline moving in from the west. Storms developed a couple of hours earlier than originally thought. The ANC system captured the initiation of this event with about a 40-50 minute lead time. The storms went severe within 30 minutes of initiation (about 50 miles west of DFW Metroplex) with quarter sized hail, strong winds and several mesocyclones.

31. Ft. Worth WFO 25 April 2005 Forecast: 1831 Z Radar Image: 1831 Z Forecast: 1831 Z Radar Image: 1929 Z

32. Ft. Worth WFO 25 April 2005 Forecast: 1842 Z Radar Image: 1842 Z Forecast: 1842 Z Radar Image: 1941 Z

33. Ft. Worth WFO 25 April 2005 Forecast: 1854 Z Radar Image: 1854 Z Forecast: 1854 Z Radar Image: 1952 Z

34. Ft. Worth WFO 25 April 2005 Forecast: 1905 Z Radar Image: 1905 Z Forecast: 1905 Z Radar Image: 2003 Z

35. Ft. Worth WFO 25 April 2005 Forecast: 1917 Z Radar Image: 1917 Z Forecast: 1917 Z Radar Image: 2020 Z

36. Ft. Worth WFO 25 April 2005 Forecast: 1929 Z Radar Image: 1934 Z Forecast: 1929 Z Radar Image: 2030 Z

37. Ft. Worth WFO 25 April 2005 Forecast: 1941 Z Radar Image: 1940 Z Forecast: 1941 Z Radar Image: 2042 Z

38. Ft. Worth WFO 25 April 2005 Forecast: 1952 Z Radar Image: 1951 Z Forecast: 1952 Z Radar Image: 2054 Z

39. Ft. Worth WFO 25 April 2005 Forecast: 2003 Z Radar Image: 2003 Z Forecast: 2003 Z Radar Image: 2107 Z

40. Ft. Worth WFO 25 April 2005 Forecast: 2020 Z Radar Image: 2020 Z Forecast: 2020 Z Radar Image: 2119 Z

41. Ft. Worth WFO 25 April 2005 Forecast: 2030 Z Radar Image: 2030 Z Forecast: 2030 Z Radar Image: 2129 Z

42. Ft. Worth WFO 25 April 2005 Forecast: 2042 Z Radar Image: 2042 Z Forecast: 2042 Z Radar Image: 2142 Z

43. Ft. Worth WFO 25 April 2005 This was one of the first events after some modifications had been made to the system based on forecaster feedback (i.e. a CIN predictor field was added to the forecast logic). Had this information not been included, the ANC system would have produced several hours of false alarms prior to storms initiating. Several forecasters consulted the system during this event and it was used to help with spotter activation.

44. Our Impressions of the Ft. Worth WFO Deployment Users have been very accommodating of new technology. Users have done a really good job of entering boundaries. Use the system most often early on in the convective events during initiation/development phase. Received a lot of very useful feedback from the users. Have incorporated some of the forecasters ideas which we feel have led to improved forecasts and are in the process of implementing others.