1. Trends of Infocomm James Seng jseng@pobox.org.sg

2. Disclaimer Any ideas, concepts and opinions expressed here are my own and may not reflect the opinions of Infocomm Development Authority and/or any organizations I am affiliated with.

3. Revolutions 1750 1800 1850190019502000 1770s Steam Engine 2050 1820s Railway and Telegraph 1940s Computer 1960s ARPANet 1850s Railway Boom 2100 Industry Information 1990s Internet Boom Burst

4. Internet boom and burst Burst

5. Internet growth Burst ?? Source: http://www.isc.org/ds/host-count-history.html

6. Internet growth Burst ?? Source: http://www.nua.ie/surveys/how_many_online/index.html

7. Telecomm crisis? Source: http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=2098913

8. Where do we go from here? 1860sNow 2100

9. Generation Revolution Next Generation (N-Gen)  Born after 80s “Nintendo Generation” First generation to grew up with digital and infocomm technology Use technologies in ways we cannot envision

10. The N-Gen… is unimpressed with technology not afraid of technology the authority in technology uses technology with ease

11. Convergence IP device

12. Convergence or Collision? Philosophy: Smart Network, Dumb Device Philosophy: Dumb Network, Smart Device Bang AT&T is investing 3B USD to move from circuit-switch network to an IP packet. 1,000TB of traffic on the IP network compared with the equivalent of 450TB a day moving on the voice switches.

13. Internet Boom and Burst Many companies crashed and burned. Too much bandwidth  Cheap bandwidth It is from the ashes of the burned Phoenix that a phoenix is reborn.

14. Learn from the N-Gen Future

15. Trends: Gartner Hype Chart Visibility Peak of inflated expectations Trough of disillusionment Slope of enlightenment Plateau of productivity Emerging trends

16. Trend 1: Peer-to-Peer Problem or opportunity?

17. Trend 2: IP Telephony 2.7M IP Telephony users in Japan as of 2002 “All the calls you want to make for only US$9.99 a month!” from ITU Newsblog Technology Standards: SIP, ENUM “1,736,247 download since 2th Oct launch”

18. Trend 3: Blog Source: Joichi Ito http://joi.ito.com/

19. Trend 3: Blog Technology Standards: Semantic Web (RDF) The Growing Blogsphere Hosted Blogs CreatedGrowth Rate 2000135,731NA 2001958,182606% 20022,163,636126% 20035,007,272131% 2004(est) 10,283,687105% Source: Perseus Development Corp.

20. Crisis of the Society Real world to Cyber world  Rape -> IRC sex offenders  Robbery -> Bank hacking  Junk Mail -> Email Spam Culture Identity

21. Conclusion This is only the beginning! We live in very interesting time…