1. Aviation Weather Hazards in the Southwest David Craft Aviation Products & Services Program Co-leader NWS Forecast Office, Albuquerque David Craft Aviation Products & Services Program Co-leader NWS Forecast Office, Albuquerque

2. NWS ABQ Forecast Area NWS El Paso NWS Midland

3. Overview NWS ABQ TAFs & TWEBs Weather Hazards –Smoke and haze obscurations –Spring and east winds –Low level wind shear –Thunderstorms –Turbulence –Icing Internet Resources for Aviators Summary NWS ABQ TAFs & TWEBs Weather Hazards –Smoke and haze obscurations –Spring and east winds –Low level wind shear –Thunderstorms –Turbulence –Icing Internet Resources for Aviators Summary Learning Objectives 1.Understand the evolution and timing of atmospheric mixing 2.Better anticipate the development and impact of these weather hazards Learning Objectives 1.Understand the evolution and timing of atmospheric mixing 2.Better anticipate the development and impact of these weather hazards

4. Smoke & Haze Obscurations NWS 6/24/02 1430Z 6/23/02 1430Z Mogollon Rim Wildfire Flagstaff Temperature & Wind Profiles 6/23/02 12Z FT AGL

5. Spring Winds Average Spring Wind 1961-1992 Average Spring Wind 1961-1992 Noon to 6 pm Albuquerque’s NWS 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% NWS

6. Rio Grande Valley East Winds High impact on the ABQ Sunport and Santa Fe Airport Stronger events also reach Double Eagle, Taos, and Grants Airports Over-the-top events can cause hurricane-force winds in Albuquerque –124 mph - 1987 - tram base –108 mph - 1990 - Glenwood Hills –90 mph (sustained) - 1943 - Albuquerque Airport High impact on the ABQ Sunport and Santa Fe Airport Stronger events also reach Double Eagle, Taos, and Grants Airports Over-the-top events can cause hurricane-force winds in Albuquerque –124 mph - 1987 - tram base –108 mph - 1990 - Glenwood Hills –90 mph (sustained) - 1943 - Albuquerque Airport * Santa Fe Tijeras Canyon Tijeras Canyon ABQ Airport X 1200 FT drop Sandia Mtns Sandia Mtns NWS

7. Low Level Wind Shear Any change in wind speed or direction within 2,000 feet AGL –Gap winds (eg. ABQ’s east winds) –Thunderstorms –Dryline –Fronts –Low level jet –Mountain waves –Land and sea breezes Example TAF forecast (nonconvective LLWS): –FM0600 06015KT P6SM SKC WS018/24030KT –“TS” in TAF implies the presence of strong LLWS Any change in wind speed or direction within 2,000 feet AGL –Gap winds (eg. ABQ’s east winds) –Thunderstorms –Dryline –Fronts –Low level jet –Mountain waves –Land and sea breezes Example TAF forecast (nonconvective LLWS): –FM0600 06015KT P6SM SKC WS018/24030KT –“TS” in TAF implies the presence of strong LLWS Rio Grande Valley East Wind?

8. Thunderstorms TAF or TWEB forecast = TS, then expect: –Severe icing and turbulence –Lightning –Microbursts –Low level wind shear –Potential for hail & tornadoes Beware of the freezing level Thunderstorm season –March-September eastern NM, eastern CO and TX –July-September western NM, western CO, AZ and UT TAF or TWEB forecast = TS, then expect: –Severe icing and turbulence –Lightning –Microbursts –Low level wind shear –Potential for hail & tornadoes Beware of the freezing level Thunderstorm season –March-September eastern NM, eastern CO and TX –July-September western NM, western CO, AZ and UT NWS

9. Supercell Thunderstorms Looking WNW, Motion NE Looking NE, Motion NE Looking E, Motion NE Copyright 2000 Corey Mead NWS Back-sheared anvil Flanking Line Overshooting Top Tropopause

10. Thunderstorms? Torrance County Tornado Photo 1 Photo 2 Photo 3 Photo 4 NWS

11. Hail Socorro October 2004 August 2004 Sand Creek in Union County NWS

12. Microburst NWS

13. Microburst NWS

14. Microburst & Blowing Dust NWS

15. Wet Microburst Photo 1 Photo 2 Photo 3

16. Dry Microburst

17. Dry Microburst? NWS

18. Dryline www.tornadochaser.net/dryline.html USATODAY.COM Dewpoints Dry/moist convergence zone Flying hazards: –Thunderstorms –Low Level Wind Shear Most common and intense in spring and early summer Daytime advances east Nighttime usually retreats west Dry/moist convergence zone Flying hazards: –Thunderstorms –Low Level Wind Shear Most common and intense in spring and early summer Daytime advances east Nighttime usually retreats west

19. WSR-88D RADAR COVERAGE Courtesy of SRI International. Cited 2006. Available on-line at: http://www.sri.com/esd/envtek/clients-projects/doc-noaa/nws/roc.htmlhttp://www.sri.com/esd/envtek/clients-projects/doc-noaa/nws/roc.htmlCourtesy of SRI International. Cited 2006. Available on-line at: http://www.sri.com/esd/envtek/clients-projects/doc-noaa/nws/roc.htmlhttp://www.sri.com/esd/envtek/clients-projects/doc-noaa/nws/roc.html

20. Break Time? National Lightning Safety Institute

21. Midpoint Overview NWS ABQ TAFs & TWEBs Weather Hazards –Smoke and haze obscurations –Spring and east winds –Low level wind shear –Thunderstorms –Turbulence –Icing Internet Resources for Aviators Summary NWS ABQ TAFs & TWEBs Weather Hazards –Smoke and haze obscurations –Spring and east winds –Low level wind shear –Thunderstorms –Turbulence –Icing Internet Resources for Aviators Summary

22. Atmospheric Turbulence Types Thermal Mechanical Mountain Wave High Altitude Thermal Mechanical Mountain Wave High Altitude Turbulence from Fluid Flowing through a Grid From An Album of Fluid Motion by Milton Van Dyke, Figure 152

23. Thermal Turbulence Convective lifting and cooling The COMET Program

24. Mechanical Turbulence The COMET Program Rule of Thumb Wind > 30 KT within 3,000 FT = MDT TURBC Wind > 45KT within 3,000 FT = SVR TURBC Rule of Thumb Wind > 30 KT within 3,000 FT = MDT TURBC Wind > 45KT within 3,000 FT = SVR TURBC

25. Mountain Wave Turbulence Air Force Manual 51-12, Weather for Aircrews (1974)

26. Breaking Wave

27. Visible Satellite Depiction Roll clouds indicate turbulence more than 100 miles downstream NWS

28. Visible Sign of Mountain Wave NWS

29. Visible Sign of Mountain Wave NWS

30. www.joss.ucar.edu/trex/ Visible Sign of Mountain Wave

31. High Altitude Turbulence Air Force Handbook 11-203 (Vol. 1), Weather for Aircrews (1997) TROPOPAUSE J J J = Jet Core NORTH

32. Visible Sign of High Altitude Turbulence High Altitude Turbulence frequently manifests as intermittent and patchy turbulence outbreaks stretched in thin layers along the direction of the wind Kelvin/Helmholtz Waves may appear if enough moisture High Altitude Turbulence frequently manifests as intermittent and patchy turbulence outbreaks stretched in thin layers along the direction of the wind Kelvin/Helmholtz Waves may appear if enough moisture

33. Turbulence Type Review

34. Icing Clear IceRime IceMixed Ice

35. Freezing Rain NASA

37. Frequency of Icing Type vs. Temperature from PIREPS Theoretical Temperature Range

39. Mountain Obscurations & Icing 0oC0oC 0oC0oC Jeppesen Sanderson Training Products

41. Hand fly the aircraft to check aerodynamics General aviators use de-ice equipment to flee from ice, not to fly in it Most icing accidents occur during landing after acquiring ice –Stall speed increases, so be careful with slow and low maneuvering –Keep speed up on approach, especially if heavily iced Hand fly the aircraft to check aerodynamics General aviators use de-ice equipment to flee from ice, not to fly in it Most icing accidents occur during landing after acquiring ice –Stall speed increases, so be careful with slow and low maneuvering –Keep speed up on approach, especially if heavily iced Safety Rules in Ice

42. Avoidance Options Find it during flight planning using aviationweather.gov Climb – may find warmer temperatures aloft Descend to warmer temperatures – watch out for terrain Divert to alternate airport Return – 180 degree course reversal may be best Take the shortest route! Find it during flight planning using aviationweather.gov Climb – may find warmer temperatures aloft Descend to warmer temperatures – watch out for terrain Divert to alternate airport Return – 180 degree course reversal may be best Take the shortest route!

43. PIREP JFK UA /OV JFK180005/TM 1649/FL250/TP LR25/IC MOD RIME= Use PIREPs with Caution Not all ice is reported Ice can develop or disappear quickly What type of aircraft reported the ice? –A jet at 250 KT may report no ice, while a Cessna reports light frost. Why? –Friction and air speed pressure can cause several degrees of warming on fuselage Not all ice is reported Ice can develop or disappear quickly What type of aircraft reported the ice? –A jet at 250 KT may report no ice, while a Cessna reports light frost. Why? –Friction and air speed pressure can cause several degrees of warming on fuselage

44. Internet Resources for Aviators Aviation Digital Data Service –AIRMETs, SIGMETs, TURBC, ICG, PIREPs, flight-level winds, and more –http://www.aviationweather.gov/ (Check out the New Flight Path Java Tool!)http://www.aviationweather.gov/ RIDGE-Radar loops and overlays –Warnings, topography, cities, counties, highways, rivers –http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/ National Digital Forecast Database –Graphical weather forecasts out 7 days –http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/southrockies.phphttp://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/southrockies.php Hourly Weather Graph –Graphs of hourly temperature, wind, RH precipitation, and more at a point location –http://www.srh.noaa.gov/abqhttp://www.srh.noaa.gov/abq Cell phone and PDA weather –Free 7-day forecasts, warnings, radar, satellite, TAFs/TWEBs, METARS, and more –http://mobile.srh.weather.govhttp://mobile.srh.weather.gov

45. Effective use of TAFs & TWEBs Varied terrain complicates aviation weather hazards in the SW –Smoke and haze obscurations –Spring and east winds –Low level wind shear –Thunderstorms –Turbulence –Icing Knowledge of atmospheric mixing helps you anticipate weather development and its impact on your operations Access most Internet resources through aviationweather.gov Effective use of TAFs & TWEBs Varied terrain complicates aviation weather hazards in the SW –Smoke and haze obscurations –Spring and east winds –Low level wind shear –Thunderstorms –Turbulence –Icing Knowledge of atmospheric mixing helps you anticipate weather development and its impact on your operations Access most Internet resources through aviationweather.gov Summary

46. Questions? Aviation Weather Hazards in the Southwest David Craft NWS Albuquerque David.Craft@noaa.gov David Craft NWS Albuquerque David.Craft@noaa.gov

47. Enter a zip code to access a local forecast

48. Scroll down to access: 1.Ridge-Radar with overlays 2.Graphical forecasts 3.Hourly weather graph

49. To access RIDGE- Radar with overlays: Double click this radar image

50. Here is the RIDGE- Radar display Choose your map overlays

51. Now we’re back at the middle of the local forecast. Scroll down further to access graphical forecasts

52. To access graphical forecasts: Double click either of these images

53. Wave cursor over “High” to view this high temperature map Use red arrows to move forward or backward in time

56. To access the hourly weather graph: Double click this link Now we’re back at the bottom of the local forecast

57. Select your parameters of interest and hit ‘Submit’

58. Cell phone and PDA weather: http://mobile.srh.weather.gov Top half of the screen

59. Bottom half of the screen

60. Summary Varied terrain complicates aviation weather hazards in the SW –Smoke and haze obscurations –Spring and east winds –Low level wind shear –Thunderstorms Knowledge of atmospheric mixing helps you understand & anticipate weather development Useful aviation products –TAFs & TWEBs –Center Weather Advisories –Collaborative Convective Forecast Product Access most Internet resources through aviationweather.gov Varied terrain complicates aviation weather hazards in the SW –Smoke and haze obscurations –Spring and east winds –Low level wind shear –Thunderstorms Knowledge of atmospheric mixing helps you understand & anticipate weather development Useful aviation products –TAFs & TWEBs –Center Weather Advisories –Collaborative Convective Forecast Product Access most Internet resources through aviationweather.gov –Turbulence –Mountain obscuration –Icing –Turbulence –Mountain obscuration –Icing

61. Questions? Aviation Weather Hazards in the Southwest David Craft NWS Albuquerque David.Craft@noaa.gov David Craft NWS Albuquerque David.Craft@noaa.gov