1. ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011 CLIMAFRICA Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptations Antonio Bombelli Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change, Italy (Project Coordination Office) & Joseph Mutemi IGAD Centre for Climate Prediction Application, Kenya EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavilion Durban, 28 November 2011

2. ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011 CLIMAFRICA Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptations European Commission – FP7 3.5 M€ 48 months: 1 Oct 2010 – 30 Sep 2014 Key Words Climate Predictions; Climate Impacts; Vulnerabilities; Adaptation; Case Studies; Agriculture and Water Resources; Socio-economic analysis

3. ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011 Why ClimAfrica? Africa and Climate Change key role in the global C-cycle and climate system  50% of interannual variability of the global C-balance > 50% of global fire emissions  1/5 of the global C-emissions from land use change Weakness most vulnerable continent to climate change/variability population mostly depend on the rain fed rural sector economy relies mainly on natural resources less covered region by climate change studies climate models developed outside the African context current climate scenarios consider long term trends, with less focus to the shorter time frame direct linkage between climate, food production, economy and livelihood not enough or not adequate climate related info and products for Africa

4. ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011 Why ClimAfrica? Africa and Climate Change key role in the global C-cycle and climate system  50% of interannual variability of the global C-balance > 50% of global fire emissions  1/5 of the global C-emissions from land use change Weakness most vulnerable continent to climate change/variability population mostly depend on the rain fed rural sector economy relies mainly on natural resources less covered region by climate change studies climate models developed outside the African context current climate scenarios consider long term trends, with less focus to the shorter time frame direct linkage between climate, food production, economy and livelihood not enough or not adequate climate related info and products for Africa Urgent need for the most up-to date and appropriate information and products, developed specifically for Africa, to better understand and predict climate change and its impacts in Sub- Saharan Africa for the next 10-20 years

5. ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011 ClimAfrica Objectives 1.Develop improved climate predictions on seasonal to decadal time scale 2.Assess climate impacts in water resources and agriculture sectors 3.Evaluate the vulnerability of ecosystems and population to inter- annual variations and decadal trends in climate 4.Suggest and analyse new adaptation strategies suited to SSA 5.Develop a new concept of medium term monitoring and forecasting warning system for food security, risk management, civil protection 6.Analyse the economic impact of climate change on agriculture and water resources and the cost-effectiveness of potential adaptation measures

6. ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011 WP2 climate predictability and forecasts WP1 past climate variability WP4 Medium-term warning system vulnerability, adaptation WP3 climate impacts WP5 Socio- economic implications WP6 case studies WP7 project management WP8 dissemination

7. ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011 Expected advancements Improved information and tools delivered on a time scale effective for timely adaptation actions: 1.Improved climate predictions (seasonal/decadal) over Africa 2.Assessment of climate impacts on water resources and agriculture in the next 10-20 years 3.New adaptation strategies suited to Africa's needs 4.Assessment of economic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation 5.An operational medium term monitoring and forecasting warning system 6.Provision and training to local stakeholders of new modelling tools to improve climate risk analysis in water and agricultural sectors 7.Enhanced scientific cooperation + capacity development

8. ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011 AcronymParticipant organisation nameCountry 1CMCCCENTRO EURO-MEDITERRANEO per i CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICIItaly 2ULUNDLUNDS UNIVERSITETSweden 3CEACOMMISSARIAT A L’ENERGIE ATOMIQUEFrance 4MPGMAX PLANCK GESELLSCHAFT ZUR FOERDERUNG DER WISSENSCHAFTENGermany 5VUA VERENIGING VOOR CHRISTELIJK HOGER ONDERWIJS WETENSCHAPPELIJK ONDERZOEK EN PATIENTEZORG Netherlands 6CTFCCENTRE TECNOLOGIC FORESTAL DE CATALUNYASpain 7PICPOTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCHGermany 8CIRAD CENTRE DE COOPERATION INTERNATIONAL EN RECHERCHE AGRONOMIQUE POUR LE DEVELOPPEMENT France 9FAO – GTOSFOOD and AGRICULTURE ORGANISATION of the UNITED NATIONS 10SOW – VU STICHTING ONDERZOEK WERELDVOEDSELVOORZIENING VAN DE VRIJE UNIVERSITEIT Netherlands 11UR2PI UNITE DE RECHERCHE SUR LA PRODUCTIVITE DES PLANTATIONS INDUSTRIELLES Congo 12UCTUNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWNSouth Africa 13BCAUNIVERSITY OF MALAWIMalawi 14LBEVUNIVERSITY OF LOMÉTogo 15ARCAGRICULTURAL RESEARCH CORPORATIONSudan 16ICPACIGAD CENTRE FOR CLIMATE PREDICTION APPLICATIONKenya 17CSIR-CRI COUNCIL FOR SCIENTIFIC INDUSTRIAL RESEARCH – CROPS RESEARCH INSTITUTE Ghana 18CERPINEDDCENTRE D’ETUDE DE RECHERCHE ET DE PRODUCTION EN INFORMATION POUR L’ENVIRONNEMENT ET LE DEVELOPPEMENT DURABLE Burkina Faso Partnership 18 institutions: 9 Europe 8 Africa + FAO Project coordinator: CMCC – Italy www.cmcc-org Local case studies: 1)Burkina Faso 2)Congo 3)Ghana 4)Malawi 5)Sudan 6)Togo 7)Kenya 8)Ethiopia 9)Tanzania

9. ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011

10. ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011

11. ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011

12. ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011 Development of new methods and tools Capacity building for climate scientist and users Pioneering the Regional Climate Outlook forums (RCOFs): Total of 29. Established good collaboration and networks with met services, research organizations, the Media Education and awareness on climate risk management Pilot application projects Increasing number of new partnerships in operational climate science implications to welfare of whole region… Some of the outstanding achievements

13. ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011 LESSONS LEARNED. SUCCESS OF Regional Climate outlook forums and user experiences have been fulfilling… ICPAC Has more 10 years of operational climate service provision to Eastern Africa as a whole. Most recent example of regional vulnerability to climate extremes is failure of rainfall in large areas of Equatorial Eastern Africa since 2010 through most of 2011 with life threatening famine affecting large areas of the region….ICPAC GHACOFs 26, 27, & 28 provided the regional scale scope this climate anomaly, but there may have been minimal policies and actions to help communities within those areas cushion themselves against these conditions. Impacts have been quite catastrophic in several parts the Greater Horn…. NOW LEARNED. WHAT BETTER WAY THAN THE DECLARATION BY HEADS OF STATES Heads of States within Horn of Africa have taken a commitment on climate risk…eradication of drought emergencies, undertake investments, polices and programs that enable communities to have the necessary resilience to adverse climate extremes. ….

14. ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011

15. ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011 Skill/Performance of the CMCC-model for Sub-Sahara Africa rainfall (Top row is the model rainfall pattern, and bottom row is Observations). The basic annual cycle with good spatial distribution is captured by the model. Model Obs

16. ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011 ICPAC EXAMPLES…GHACOF29: FCST SOND2011 ICPAC RCC product, 3 rd Sep 2011— Addressing GHA 2011 drought & Famine/Food Crisis …. October – December 2011 EA-Rainfall : After nearly 2years no rain in parts: Kenya, S. Somalia, NE. Tanzania & S. Ethiopia, rainfall as come as predicted. Prediction done & released on 3 rd Sept.2011 as GHACOF29.

17. ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011

18. ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011 CC..Examples from Kenya…Minimum Temperatures in some areas of Kenya may be suggesting climate change……

19. ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011 SUMMARY ClimAfrica is the Scientific EU-Africa CC cooperation towards enabling of Sub- Sahara Africa (SSA) to be able to predict skillfully climate variability, extremes, and changes on time scales ranging from seasonal to decadal. This improved climate predictions is the baseline information that the policy makers and people of SSA need for their socio-economic welfare, especially for rain-fed agriculture, water resources, environmental productivity and protection. ClimAfrica outputs will empower SSA and EU-as a major development and friend of SSA to undertake practical socio-economic mitigation and adaption strategies against adverse climate extremes and change in support of welfare of peoples of SSA.

20. ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation EC Side Event - UNFCCC COP17, EU Pavillion Durban, 28 November 2011