1. bree.gov.au Resources and energy—the outlook for Australia Australasian Rail Association Heavy Haul Rail: Newcastle 27-28 August 2014 Wayne Calder Deputy Executive Director Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE)

2. bree.gov.au Key messages  Still opportunities for resources and energy exports to emerging economies  Investment in capital formation and growing energy consumption growth will support demand for bulk commodities  Transition to the production phase accelerating  Iron ore and coal are key exports for Australia, and will continue to provide significant earnings over the medium term

3. bree.gov.au Regional economic growth Sources: IMF; BREE

4. bree.gov.au China’s GDP Source: IMF China BoomChina Bust??? GFC & Rebound

5. bree.gov.au Steel production growth to be steady Source: BREE

6. bree.gov.au China’s monthly steel production

7. bree.gov.au Australia’s iron ore exports Sources: ABS; BREE

8. bree.gov.au Australia’s metallurgical coal exports Sources: ABS; BREE

9. bree.gov.au Contributions to energy demand 2011–35 (%) IEA New Policies Scenario

10. bree.gov.au Contributions to energy demand 2011–35 (Mtoe) IEA New Policies Scenario

11. bree.gov.au Power generation in non-OECD Asia IEA New Policies Scenario Source: IEA

12. bree.gov.au China’s electricity generation Electricity generation has been increasing rapidly and will continue to grow Thermal (coal and gas) sources account for the bulk of generation Inertia in the energy system will prevent any rapid change in generation mix

13. bree.gov.au Power generation in India IEA New Policies Scenario Source: IEA

14. bree.gov.au Australia’s thermal coal exports Sources: ABS; BREE

15. bree.gov.au The production phase to increase export earnings

16. bree.gov.au Contact Wayne Calder Deputy Executive Director Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics wayne.calder@bree.gov.au 02 6243 7718