1. The Iran Nuclear Crisis Herzliya Conference Scott D. Sagan February 4, 2009

2. Proliferation Fatalism: The belief that coercive diplomacy can not stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons. Deterrence Optimism: The belief that a nuclear Iran can be easily deterred through threats of nuclear retaliation.

3. (Mis)Reading the 2007 NIE Iran “halted” its nuclear weapons program in 2003 Iran’s weapons program was a violation of its NPT obligations Covert enrichment program exists outside of Natanz

4. Dangers of a Nuclear Iran Cold War analogy flawed Pakistan analogy better –Shield for aggressive action –Ambiguous “control” –Dangerous custodians –Anonymous attack Further proliferation

5. Moving Forward? Stronger Carrots –Regime Coexistence –LWR Assistance –Grand Bargain Stronger Sticks –Sanctions on Refined Petroleum –Financial Sanctions Military Options