1. San Antonio Business and Economics Society Old Wine in New Bottles? The Mexican Economy Today Jorge G. Gonzalez Trinity University

2. Current Situation Rapid Economic Growth

3. Real GDP % Change Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

4. Current Situation Rapid Economic Growth Decline in Inflation Rate

5. Inflation Rate Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

6. Current Situation Rapid Economic Growth Decline in Inflation Rate Decline in Interest Rates

7. Interest Rates 28-day CETES Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

8. Current Situation Rapid Economic Growth Decline in Inflation Rate Decline in Interest Rates Increase in Employment

9. Employment (Thousands of IMSS Members) Source: INEGI www.inegi.gob.mx

10. Current Situation Rapid Economic Growth Decline in Inflation Rate Decline in Interest Rates Increase in Employment Strong Peso

11. Exchange Rate Pesos per U.S. Dollar Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

12. Current Situation Rapid Economic Growth Decline in Inflation Rate Decline in Interest Rates Increase in Employment Strong Peso Strong International Sector

13. International Trade (Billions of Dollars) Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

14. Can it get any better? Strong U.S. economy Price of oil Strong domestic demand Investment rating

15. A Tale of Two Years 1994 Zapatistas (January) Car bombs (January) Kidnappings (March) Colosio (March) Capital Flight Large Trade Deficit Controlled Peso 2000 Chiapas and UNAM Strong DFI Strong Floating Peso Investment Rating

16. Future Dangers Exogenous International Crisis Price of Oil Increase in U.S. Rates Recession in U.S. Endogenous Political Uncertainty Loss of Discipline Banking Sector Balance of Payments

17. San Antonio Business and Economics Society Old Wine in New Bottles? The Mexican Economy Today Jorge G. Gonzalez Trinity University