1. Development of MSC Regional PM Air Quality Model: AURAMS Mike Moran, Wanmin Gong, Paul Makar, Ashu Dastoor, Sunling Gong, and Balbir Pabla Air Quality Modelling & Integration Division Air Quality Research Branch, Downsview Véronique Bouchet, Sophie Cousineau, Louis-Philippe Crevier, Stéphane Gaudreault, and Sylvain Ménard Applications en modélisation de la qualité de l'air Centre Météorologique Canadien, Dorval Presentation for 2004 AQRB Midterm Review – Smog Session Downsview, Ontario 26 October 2004

2. Talk Outline  Status of Deliverables ! Other Achievements & Activities ! Planned Activities ! Results and Findings

3. NOW Comment: Have Reached A New Stage THEN

4. Status of FY04/05 Deliverables

5. Deliverable 1 1. Multi-processor version of AURAMS (May 04)  OpenMP multi-processor version was released 24 May 2004 (AURAMS version 1.0)  New version is a factor of 5 faster on the IBM cluster at Dorval than the previous version of AURAMS  New version was essential to support ICARTT experiment beginning in July 2004  MSC personnel (A. Kallaur, B. Pabla, B. He) involved in the code speed-up effort directed by P. Makar received an AQRB Instant Award in July

6. Deliverable 2 2. Submission of 2 AURAMS manuscripts June04  Delayed to later in FY by preparations for ICARTT field experiment and by work on 2004 Canadian Acid Rain Science Assessment  Relevant to public release of AURAMS code planned for April 2005

7. Deliverable 3 3. Real-time forecast support for ICARTT July 04 Experimental AURAMS real-time daily 48-hour forecasts to support both ICARTT field program and real-time AQ model intercomparison started on July 1, ran throughout Cleveland field project period (July 20  Aug. 18), and are continuing indefinitely The Air Quality Model Applications Group provided 24/7 support for the R-T AURAMS forecasts and delivered forecasts to NOAA for R-T intercomparison 3 AURAMS scientists served (sequentially) in the field as AQ forecasters to support MSC flight operations

8. ICARTT ( http://www.al.noaa.gov/ICARTT) International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation  Large AQ field experiment over eastern North America and north Atlantic Ocean  July-August 2004, eastern North America (mainly)  Over 500 scientists involved  NOAA, NASA, U.S. Dept of Energy, MSC, Caltech, Harvard, U. Maryland, U. New Hampshire, New York State U., York U., Dalhousie U.

9. MSC ICARTT CAMPAIGN The Canadian campaign was designed to address some AQ forecasting shortcomings. There were two theatres of operation. Cleveland (85%): Chemical Transformation and transport by Clouds (CTC) Improve the way AQ models represent aerosol and cloud processes; More comprehensively evaluate the performance of MSC AQ models Bangor (15%): Transport Into the Maritimes (TIMs) Investigate LRTAP from Washington-Boston corridor

10. Forecasting Product: 6-Panel Animation of AURAMS Sfc SO 2, p-SO 4, p-NO 3, H 2 O 2, O 3, NO x Concentration Fields

11. Forecasting Product: 4-Sided Vertical Cross Section Animation of SO 2, p-SO 4, p-NO 3, O 3, and NO x Conc. Fields

12. Vertically- integrated p-SO 4 2- production in cloud Forecast Product: 4-Panel Animation of Selected AURAMS Cloud and Aqueous-Phase Chemistry Fields Vertically- integrated p-SO 4 2- production in clear air Cloud fraction at 1225 m Cloud liquid water content at 1225 m

13. ICARTT Real-Time Model Intercomparison Model intercomparison (O 3 at AIRMAP & AIRNOW stations) Baron/MCNC MAQSIP (45, 15km) MSC CHRONOS (21 km) MSC AURAMS (42 km) NOAA WRF-CHEM (27, 12 km) NOAA/EPA CMAQ-ETA (12 km) U of Iowa STEM (60, 12, 4km) And ensemble AQ forecasts! Example for Chebogue Point on July 21, 2004 during an episode in the Maritimes (aloft)

14. Other Achievements & Activities  Completion of final version of the section on AURAMS results for 2 case studies and 5 scenarios for the EC/EPA PM Transboundary Transport Assessment report; this study represents the first policy application of AURAMS (cf. Results and Findings)  Implementation of a plume-rise algorithm for major point sources & an improved SOA formation algorithm  Development of AURAMS modelling plans as part of the draft science plans for two proposed field experiments (Prairie 2005, SwOn/SeMi 2006);  Delivery of AURAMS-related presentations at 7 conference/workshops, 2 seminars, and 1 media briefing in first 6 months of FY

15. Prairie 2005 Air-quality model forecasts (AURAMS, CHRONOS) used to deploy mobile measurement platforms. Air-quality model forecasts (AURAMS, CHRONOS) used to deploy mobile measurement platforms. Platforms to measure PM, O 3 and precursor concentrations and concentration fluxes. Platforms to measure PM, O 3 and precursor concentrations and concentration fluxes. Post-campaign simulations (AURAMS, CHRONOS, CMAQ) Post-campaign simulations (AURAMS, CHRONOS, CMAQ) a) What are the measured advective mass fluxes of PM, O 3 and precursors across arbitrary (e.g., politically defined) boundaries (focus on Alberta)? b) What are the modelled advective mass fluxes… …across the same boundaries? c) How well does (b) match (a)? PIs: Brian Wiens, Paul Makar - MSC

16. BAQSmet 2006 (1) Are AQ and meteorological estimates of boundary layer height consistent? (2) How does the Detroit urban boundary layer affect AQ in Windsor? Are current weather forecast and air quality models capable of predicting the existence of this region? (3) Characterization of lake breezes, met and AQ: how may the measurements and modelling be used to distinguish between local and long-range transport impacts on the airshed? (4) What is the impact of lake-breeze generated convection on local air-quality? How well do meteorological and air-quality models simulate this convection, and the associated vertical transport of pollutants?  Again, AURAMS forecasts to be used to deploy aircraft and ground-based measurement platforms. Ontario Region project advised by AQRB measurement and modelling science:

17. Planned Activities (1)  Preparation of 2 manuscripts (cf. Deliverable 2)  Delivery of at least one more new model version Continuing work on AURAMS performance eval’n: – Pacific2001 – CMAQ-AURAMS intercomparison for two cases (joint with OME) – ICARTT real-time model intercomparison – ICARTT field data eval’n (Convair, ozonesondes) – other periods

18. Planned Activities (2) Continuing work on further improvements to AURAMS, including “on-the-fly” Aeolian dust and biogenic emissions wildfire emissions nested chemical lateral boundary conditions subgrid-scale vertical transport by convective clouds inclusion of sea salt in heterogeneous chemistry faster CAM

19. Results and Findings Two significant findings from the AURAMS simulations performed for the EC/EPA PM Transboundary Transport Assessment report are that changes in atmospheric PM in ENA in response to emission changes in PM gaseous precursors are expected  to vary strongly by season and  in some areas to vary non-proportionally and even non-directionally

20. July 8-18 Feb. 7-15 PM 2.5 SO 4 PM 2.5 NO 3 PM 2.5 NH 4 2020P - 2020B Scenario “Deltas” for SO 2 and NO x Emission Reductions, July ‘95 & Feb. ‘98 Cases

21. Manitoba Smelters - AURAMS simulations in use for Policy on Emissions Controls