1. COSMO Priority Project CORSO “ C onsolidation of O peration and R esearch results for the S ochi O lympic Games”

2. PP CORSO Part 1 Rome, 2011

3. 17 staff members COSMO-RU: 11 - PhD, 4 - postgraduates, 2 - graduates MSU 1. Technol. Line : D.Blinov, G.Rivin, I. Rozinkina; 2. Snow : E.Kazakova, I. Rozinkina ; 3. T2m : G.Rivin, I. Rozinkina, E.Sapuntsova; 4. Boundary layer: M.Chumakov, V.Perov; 5. VERSUS-2 : A.Bundel, A.Muravev; 6. h <= 2.2 km : D.Blinov, G.Rivin; 7. Ensembles : D.Alferov, E.Astakhova, G.Rivin; 8. Data Assim. : V.Gorin, M.Tsyrulnykov; 9.ART : A.Kirsanov, A.Revokatova, G.Surkova. 10.Mires : A.Yurova 3

4. SYSTEM COSMO-RU GME  x = 30/20 km COSMO-RU7  x = 7 km COSMO-RU2  x =2.2 km Domain: 900 km * 1000 km Grid: 420*470 * 50 Step: 2.2 км Time step: 15 сек Forecast: 24 час. Cores: 400 Grid: 368 642 * 60 Step: 30 / 20 км Time step: 110 сек Forecast: 7 суток Гидрометеорологический центр Российской Федерации COSMO-RUsib  x =14 km GME: initial and boundary data Domain: 4900 km * 4340 km Grid: 700*620 * 40 Step: 7 км Time step: 40 сек Forecast: 78 час. Cores: 800 Domain: 5000 km * 3500 km Grid: 360*250 * 40 Step: 14 км Time step: 80 сек Forecast: 78 час. Cores: 48. 4

5. April 13, 2011 Roshydromet decided to implement the system of mesoscale weather prediction COSMO-RU in operational practice as a base for use in Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia and other Roshydromet prognostic offices. Гидрометеорологический центр Российской Федерации 5 KRASNAYA POLYANA

6. Гидрометеорологический центр Российской Федерации COSMO-RU07: domain, time of run with MPI 6 Initial and boundary data: 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC, GME (DWD) Forecast: 78 h (00,12 UTC) 48 h (06,18 UTC) Grid step 7 km Grid: 700 * 620 * 40 SGI Altix 4700 (1664 cores) (832 processors Itanium, 64-bit, 3,3 Tb memory) Run time for 78 h. 19 min: 1024 cores 33 min: 512 cores 59 min: 256 cores 4340 km 4900 km

7. Гидрометеорологический центр Российской Федерации COSMO-RU02: domain, time of run with MPI h = 2.2 km 7 Initial and boundary data: 00,06,12 and 18 UTC, GME (DWD) Forecast: 24 h Grid step 2.2 km Grid: 420 * 470 * 50 (Moscow) 420 * 470 * 50 (Sochi) SGI Altix 4700 (1664 cores) (832 processors Itanium 2, 64-bit, 3,3 Tb memory) Run time for 24 h. 27 min : 400 cores h = 2.2 km Moscow Sochi

8. COSMO-RU 00 UTC, (the same for 12 UTC) Maps: 900 Meteograms: 400 8

9. 9

10. 10

11. COSMO-RU14: Siberia, time of run with MPI 11

12. Т2м Td2м Т850 Т700 Т500 PRESSURE PRECIPITATION CONVECTIVE CLOUDNESS 10 000 м 8 000 м 6 000 м 4 000 м 2 000 м 0 м CLOUDSNESS мм/3часа мм/час 25.12 26 december 27 december 28.12.2010 Гидрометеорологический центр Российской Федерации DAY and HOURS 12 WIND 500 гПа 700 гПа 850 гПа 500 м 10 м COSMO-RU07: MOSCOW, 25.12.2010_15 – 28.12.2010_21 (msc) COSMO-RU07: MOSCOW, 25.12.2010_15 – 28.12.2010_21 (msc)

13. Velocity, m/c 13 Baikonur (Байконур), 24 April 2010 Wind

14. 14 Т, ˚С Baikonur (Байконур), 24 April 2010 T

15. COSMO-RU2, 12-23 February 2011, T2m (prepared by A. Bundel & Versus2) 15

16. COSMO-RU02, September-November 2010, Psea, Moscow 16

17. 17

18. , SOCHI-2014,, 28.01.2011_15MSC COSMO-RU02, SOCHI-2014, T 2m, 28.01.2011_15MSC

19. , SOCHI-2014,28.01.2011_15MSC COSMO-RU02, SOCHI-2014, Precipitation, 28.01.2011_15MSC

20. PP CORSO Part 2 Rome, 2011 C onsolidation of O peration and R esearch results for the S ochi O lympic Games

21. 12 staff members Roshydromet CORSO: 7 - PhD, 4 - postgraduates, 1 - graduates MSU Task 1 (2.9 FTEs) The development of statistic. and physical post- processing and downscaling for «Sochi-2014» sport venues: D.Blinov, E.Kazakova, G.Rivin, I. Rozinkina, N. Volobueva; Task 2 (2.7 FTEs) Development and adaptation of COSMO EPSs for Sochi region: D.Alferov, E.Astakhova, G.Rivin; Task 3 (3.5 FTEs) The development of COSMO model version with horizontal resolution of less than 2 km for mountainous regions: D.Blinov, M.Chumakov, E.Kazakova, V.Perov, G.Rivin, I. Rozinkina, E.Sapuntsova; Task 4 (4.2 FTEs) Development of forecast verification for “Sochi-2014”. A.Bundel, A.Muravev.

22. 22 2012: 3.95 FTE for Russian CORSO participants (1.35 others: Task 1 – 0.55; T2 – 0.3; T3 – 0.5; T4 - ?)

23. 23 Автор фотографий: Михаил Тигушкин Роза Хутор (Roza Khutor) 14 April 2011 Freeride

24. 24 MOTIVATION 1. From COSMO model development: COSMO Science Plan 2010-2014 (publication date: 30.11.2010, p. 11) “From the scale of the targeted processes it becomes clear that the mesh-size of the model-system has to be of the order of 1-3 km.... the COSMO Steering Committee decided to focus on the development of a model-system for the short to very short range and with very high convective-scale resolution.” 2. Meteorological support for Olympics “Sochi-2014”

25. 25 The main goal: To develop and improve the complex operational high resolution short-range forecast technology for mountain areas for winter weather events on base of COSMO researches (in example of Sochi area)

26. 26 High resolution model development WG3a-b, WG2 Physical and statistical postprocessing WG4 Ensemble high-resolution forecasting WG7 Verification WG5 PP CORSO: Downscaling for venues and local specific weather conditions Forecasts of probability of local weather events Instructions for forecasters for use of numerical results

27. 27 Description of individual tasks / Deliverables (10.2011-09.2014) Task 1. The development of statistic and phys. post-processing and downscaling for «Sochi-2014» sport venues: 1. Adaptation of COSMO post-processing techniques to the Sochi region and to specific requirements of winter Olympics. 2. Development of 1-D statistical models for local weather phenomena – «physical downscaling». Deliverable: Operational technology of downscaling for «Sochi-2014» sport venues. Results of conditional verification for different synoptic situations. Recommendations for users.

28. 28 Contributing scientist(s) FTE- years StartDeliverables Date of deliv ery 1 2.90 09. 2011 Numerical forecasts of local weather conditions and critical parameters for sport venues 02. 2014 1.1 missing: 0.2 (DWD- MeteoSwiss-ARPA?) Rozinkina (0.1) 0.30 09. 2011 Review of post-processing methods (incl. Kaman and MOS techniques) available in COSMO-community and proposals on their extension according to IOC requirements. Proposal of downscale system 02. 2012 1.2Rozinkina (0.05)0.05 09. 2011 List of critical parameters for forecasting in accordance with IOC requirements 02. 2012 1.3 Rozinkina (0.1) Rivin (0.05), Missing 0.1 (MeteoSwiss-?) 0.25 09. 2011 Configuration of the unified operational downscaling system, including both statistical and physical approaches 02. 2012 1.4 Rozinkina (0.05) Sapuntsova (0.2) missing: 0.35 (DWD- MeteoSwiss-ARPA?) 0.40 09. 2011 Weather type classification for statistical forecasting of local weanter 09. 2012 1.5 Blinov (0.05) Volobueva (0.1) Rozinkina (0.05) 0.25 09. 2011 Datasets of all available observations for the Sochi-region, including points of sport Venues, for winter period 09. 2012

29. 29 1.6 Blinov (0.1) Sapuntsova (0.2) Missing 0.2 Meteoswiss-? 0.50 06. 2012 The software for the unified downscaling system, including both statistical and physical approaches. 02. 2013 1.7 Blinov (0.1) Chumakov (0.1) Kazakova (0.05) Rozinkina (0.05) 0.30 09. 2012 Preliminary assessments for post- processing results for the Sochi region. 02. 2013 1.8 Rivin (0.1) Rozinkina (0.1) 0.20 09. 2012 Results of validation for winters 2011- 2012 and 2012-1013. Recommendations on improvements of algorithms and techniques 09. 2013 1.9 Blinov (0.1) Rozinkina (0.05) Sapuntsova (0.2) 0.80 09. 2012 Operational technology of downscaling for «Sochi-2014 » sport venues. Results of conditional verification for different synoptic situations. Recommendations for users. 02. 2014

30. 30 Task 2. Development and adaptation of COSMO EPSs for Sochi region. 1. Adaptation of COSMO EPSs to the Sochi region and to specific requirements of winter Olympics. 2. Development of COSMO-RU-EPS system. Deliverable: Operational EPS technology for Sochi region.

31. 31 2 2.7009.2011 EPSs with 7 to 2-km- resolutions for Sochi region 09. 2014 2.1 Astakhova (0.1) Montani: 0.1 (ARPA- SIMC) 0.209.2011 Coordinated EPS configuration for the «Sochi-2014» region (7- to 2- km resolution). 02. 2012 2.2 Astakhova (0.1) Alferov (0.1) Montani: 0.1 (ARPA- SIMC) 0.3009.2011 A project of organization of information transfer and archiving 02. 2012 2.3 Astakhova (0.1) Alferov (0.2) Rivin (0.05) Montani: 0.2 (ARPA- SIMC) 0.5009.2011EPSs adapted for the Sochi region 09. 2012

32. 32 2.4 Astakhova (0.05) Alferov (0.05) Rivin (0.05) 0.15 09. 2012 Preliminary EPS validation, recommendations on improvement of algorithms and techniques 09. 2013 2.5 Astakhova (0.1) Alferov (0.2) Rivin (0.05) Montani: 0.1 (ARPA- SIMC) 0.50 09. 2012 COSMO-RU-EPS for Sochi region - in research mode. 09. 2013 2.6 Astakhova (0.2) Blinov (0.05) Alferov (0.2) Kirsanov (0.1) Montani: 0.1 (ARPA- SIMC) 0.70 09. 2012 Operational EPS technology for Sochi region. 09. 2013 2.7 Astakhova (0.15) Alferov (0.1) Rivin (0.05). 0.30 09. 2012 EPS products available for forecasters, recommendations for using 09. 2013 2.8 Astakhova (0.1) Alferov (0.05) Rivin (0.05) 0.20 09. 2013 Assessments of ensemble forecast skill for winter 2013-2014 09. 2014

33. 33 Task 3. The development of COSMO model version with horizontal resolution of 2.2 km and less for mountainous regions: 1. Data set of land-surface properties, 1 km resolution 2. Assimilation of parameters of land-surface state observations (Sn, T) 2. Analysis of numerical aspects 3. Modification of parameterization and numerical schemes Deliverable: Operational technology COSMO-RU-Sochi model with patial resolution 2.2 km or less.

34. 34 3 3.50 09. 2011 Development of operational forecast technology based on the COSMO-RU model with a spatial resolution of less than 2 km 09. 2014 3.1 Blinov (0.1) missing: 0.1 (DWD?) 0.20 09. 2011 The data set of land-surface properties with a resolution of 1 km validated for the Caucasus region. 02. 2012 3.2 missing: 0.1 (DWD, MeteoSwiss ?) 0.10 09. 2011 Review of COSMO modelling results obtained with 1-km resolution for mountainous regions before September 2011. 02. 2012 3.3 Blinov (0.05) Rivin (0.05) missing: 0.2 (DWD, MeteoSwiss ?) 0.30 09. 2011 Results of the first runs of COSMO model versions with spatial resolution less than 2 km after September 2011. 02. 2012 3.4 Blinov (0.05) Rivin (0.05) missing: 0.1 (DWD, MeteoSwiss ?) 0.20 09. 2011 Proposals on the modification of algorithms. 02. 2012 3.5 Kazakova (0.2) Perov (0.2) Rozinkina (0.1) missing: 0.4 (DWD, MeteoSwiss ?) 0.9 09. 2011 Modified physical parameterizations of COSMO model, including parameterizations of the boundary layer and land-surface processes. 09. 2012

35. 35 3.6 Blinov (0.1) Rivin (0.05) Sapuntsova (0.15) 0.30 09. 2011 Algorithms and technique of dynamical downscaling of initial and boundary conditions provided by lower- resolution model. 09. 2012 3.7 Blinov (0.1) Perov (0.05) Rivin (0.05) Sapuntsova (0.1) 0.30 09. 2011 Results of tests for the modified physical parameterizations over various mountainous regions using field experiment data. 09. 2012 3.8 Blinov (0.05) Perov (0.05) Rivin (0.1) 0.20 09. 2011 Results of COSMO-RU model runs with a resolution of less than 2 km and modified physical parameterizations in research mode for Sochi region. 09. 2012 3.9 Chumakov (0.10) Kirsanov(0.20) Rivin (0.10) Sapuntsova (0.10) Meteoswiss (0.4) ? 0.90 09. 2011 Land-surface state (T, Sn) parameters assimilation for mountain area. Adaptation of COSMO-techniques to Sochi-region Use of NOAA snow satellite analysis products. 09. 2012

36. 36 3. 10 Blinov (0.5) Kirsanov (0.3) Rivin (0.1) 0.90 09. 2012 Operational technology COSMO-RU-Sochi model with spatial resolution high resolution 09. 2013 3. 11 Rivin (0.05) Rozinkina (0.05) 0.10 09. 2012 Recommendations on use for forecasters. 09. 2013 3. 12 Astakhova (0.1) Perov (0.1) Rivin (0.1) Rozinkina (0.1) 0.50 09. 2013 Skill assessments for the developed high- resolution forecasting system COSMO- RU-Sochi during the winter 2013-2014. 09. 2014

37. 37 Task 4. Development of forecast verification for “Sochi- 2014”. 1. Collecting and processing observation data for verification. 2. Adaptation of available standard and mesoscale verification tools. 3. Determining criteria for weather dependent and conditional verification Deliverable: Numerical and graphical results of mesoscale verification using validated tools for object-oriented and multiscale analysis adjusted for the Sochi region.

38. 38 4 2.20 09. 2011 Complex verification system for “Sochi-2014”. Information about the forecast quality and uncertainty 09. 2013 4.1 Muravev (0.15) Bundel (0.05) 0.20 09. 2011 Review of methods for analysis of radar, gauge, and satellite data and their application for mountainous terrains. 02. 2012 4.2 Muravev (0.15) Bundel (0.15) 0.30 09. 2011 Algorithms of data processing and resulting datasets for the Sochi region. 09. 2012 4.3 Muravev (0.05) Bundel (0.25) 0.30 09. 2011 Weather dependent and conditional verification tools adapted for the Sochi region (based on VERSUS). 09. 2012 4.4 Muravev (0.3) Bundel (0.1) 0.40 09. 2011 Procedures for processing times series of forecasts and in situ measurements. 09. 2012

39. 39 4.5 Muravev (0.2) Bundel (0.2) 0.40 09. 2012 Numerical and graphical results of mesoscale verification using validated tools for object-oriented and multiscale analysis adjusted for the Sochi region. 02. 2013 4.6 Muravev (0.25) Bundel (0.15) 0.40 09. 2012 Guidelines for forecasters about the forecast quality and uncertainty. 09. 2013 4.7 Muravev (0.1) Bundel (0.1) 0.20 09. 2012 Recommendations for the development of verification systems and for the improvement of mesoscale forecasts. 09. 2013 5PPL, all0.50 09. 2013 documentation (scientific and technical) 09. 2014 6PPL, all0.50 09. 2013 final report or paper in peer reviewed journal 09. 2014 12.3 09. 2011 09. 2014

40. COSMO Priority Project CORSO “ C onsolidation of O peration and R esearch results for the S ochi O lympic Games” Thanks !

41. 41 E-mail, Marco, 31 August 2011 The STC welcomes and generally accepts the proposition. It proposes, however, its formal modification which should include: 1.an extended rationale (still pending), 2.restructuring into separate tasks for operationally (Forecast Demonstration Project) and scientifically (Research Development Project) oriented activities (partly done) with clearly defined deliverables (partly done), 3. time schedule (done), 4. clearly defined involvement of international scientists (still pending), 5. list of persons involved specifying their FTEs and assigned tasks (done for Russian colleagues only). It is expected that the revised project plan will be consulted with the SPM (ongoing, but initial revised version has been heavily delayed) and send to the STC members before the September 2011.

42. 42 E-mail, Marco, 31 August 2011 Answer 1 The STC welcomes and generally accepts the proposition. It proposes, however, its formal modification which should include: 1.an extended rationale (still pending), For us it was OBVIOUSLY because 1.1. From COSMO point of the view: COSMO Science Plan 2010-2014 (publication date: 30.11.2010, p. 11) “From the scale of the targeted processes it becomes clear that the mesh-size of the model-system has to be of the order of 1-3 km.... the COSMO Steering Committee decided to focus on the development of a model-system for the short to very short range and with very high convective-scale resolution.” 1.2. Meteorological service for Olympics “Sochi-2014”

43. 43 E-mail, Marco, 31 August 2011 Answer 2 The STC welcomes and generally accepts the proposition. It proposes, however, its formal modification which should include: 2. restructuring into separate tasks for operationally (Forecast Demonstration Project) and scientifically (Research Development Project) oriented activities (partly done) with clearly defined deliverables (partly done), Two DIFFERENT projects with DIFFERENT AIMS FROST, WMO, PL – D. Kiktev CORSO, COSMO, PL – G.Rivin and I.Rozinkina

44. 44 E-mail, Marco, 31 August 2011 Answer 3-5 The STC welcomes and generally accepts the proposition. It proposes, however, its formal modification which should include: 3.time schedule (done), Thanks. 4.clearly defined involvement of international scientists (still pending), We hope that to the end of 2011 (may be to 15 November) we will do it. 5.list of persons involved specifying their FTEs and assigned tasks (done for Russian colleagues only). See 4. It is expected that the revised project plan will be consulted with the SPM (ongoing, but initial revised version has been heavily delayed) and send to the STC members before the September 2011.

45. 45

46. 46

47. 47 Description of individual tasks / Deliverables (10.2011-09.2014) Task 1 (2.9 FTEs) The development of statistic. and phys. post-processing and downscaling for «Sochi-2014» sport venues: 1. Adaptation of COSMO post-processing techniques to the Sochi region and to specific requirements of winter Olympics. 2. Development of 1-D statistical models for local weather phenomena – «physical downscaling». Deliverable: Operational technology of downscaling for «Sochi-2014 » sport venues. Results of conditional verification for different synoptic situations. Recommendations for users. Task 2 (2.7 FTEs) Development and adaptation of COSMO EPSs for Sochi region. 1. Adaptation of COSMO EPSs to the Sochi region and to specific requirements of winter Olympics. 2. Development of COSMO-RU-EPS system. Deliverable: Operational EPS technology for Sochi region.

48. 48 Description of individual tasks / Deliverables (10.2011-09.2014) Task 3 (3.5 FTEs) The development of COSMO model version with horizontal resolution of less than 2 km for mountainous regions: 1. Preparation of archive of land-surface properties with resolution 1 km. 2. Modification of parameterization schemes. 3. Analysis of numerical aspects. Deliverable: Operational technology COSMO-RU-Sochi model with patial resolution less than 2 km. Task 4 (4.2 FTEs) Development of forecast verification for “Sochi-2014”. 1. Collecting and processing observation data for verification. 2. Adaptation of available standard and mesoscale verification tools. 3. Determining criteria for weather dependent and conditional verification Deliverable: Numerical and graphical results of mesoscale verification using validated tools for object-oriented and multiscale analysis adjusted for the Sochi region.