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ultraprt@ultraprt.com ATS ULTra Status Report Steve Raney, ATS Inc. (U.S.)
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ultraprt@ultraprt.com ATS ULTra Status Report PPT will NOT be posted on the web, not for distribution Agenda –Some discussion items. What will the future hold? –Heathrow Terminal 5 status. Schedule –Version 1.0, 1.5, 2.0 –VisiCalc, Lotus 123, MS Excel –“Road based” PRT –Market forecast –Swedish IST/GTS –Safety certification.
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ultraprt@ultraprt.com LHR Terminal 5 Opens March ’08 N Car Park to T5 3.8 km of track 18 vehicles 300,000 pax pa ULTra Opens April 2008 T5: 3 rd largest “airport” ?Morgantown complexity? Full Heathrow Build: bigger system, in phases
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ultraprt@ultraprt.com Heathrow (LHR) Terminal 5 Status BAA: privatized, owns LHR + 6 airports –Contracts: Baltimore, Logan, Pittsburg, Indianapolis, Naples 100% private sector funding! Happy customer (per Mar/Apr TransitPulse ’08 Article by BAA) –“on time and on budget” –2 year Heathrow study: low emissions, high LOS, space efficient, value. Bus & APM lost. “PRT: only practical soln, 60% travel time svngs, 40% operating cost savings” –Held open procurement: ULTra won –Phased Heathrow implementation Happy customer: new animation –BAA PR machine, not ATS PR.
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ultraprt@ultraprt.com Schedule slip: Fall ’08 Spring ’09 Not: engineering underestimate or parts issue ATS has met all schedule milestones for Cardiff test track and Heathrow T5 The schedule slip: –Was an administrative slip –Ferrovial’s $20BB acquisition of BAA had some schedule impact.
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ultraprt@ultraprt.com Schedule (some wiggle) Column footings complete Jan ‘08 Infrastructure complete May ’08 –Columns, spans, concrete running surfaces –Calibration (“learn the guideway”) starts May ‘08 Stations with glass doors & touch screens, May ’08 –Also for 2008: Cardiff track copies LHR stations Guideway “fitted out” Oct ’08 (AVP, etc) –AVP – automatic vehicle protection Commissioning starts Oct ’08 –empty vehicles first, then with passengers 18th vehicle arrives Dec ’08 Guideway really does build fast –4 person, evening crew. 1 column or 1 span per night Cost: $10 to $15 MM per mile, depending … –For ULTra systems #2 through #5.
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ultraprt@ultraprt.com
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VisiCalc, Lotus 123, Excel Is ATS VisiCalc? Is Vectus Lotus 123? Who will be Microsoft? Genteel?
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ultraprt@ultraprt.com VisiCalc, Lotus 123, Excel ATS first mover advantage? How much does having the best design matter? Version 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, Excel 98, Excel XP, …. Is ULTra V1.0 “road-based” PRT too simple? –Ingmar’s study: Skyweb chosen as best –Attendees: rate ULTra design vs. competition What will ULTra V1.5 include? V2.0? What version did BAA invest $15MM in?
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ultraprt@ultraprt.com Batteries add weight, limit speed/range? For BAA’s long term Heathrow vision, is ULTra range an issue? If so, why would BAA invest? How much do ATS batteries weigh? –Vs. Tesla motors Road-based PRT: AHS + electric cars –Drive-by-wire versus traditional PRT mechanical switching –Advances in batteries (etc) & auto sensor technologies benefit road-based PRT, and reduce cost.
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ultraprt@ultraprt.com ULTra: Is guideway too bulky? Attendees: rate ULTra guideway visual impact What about Megarail guideway? What if ULTra V1.5 was similar?
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ultraprt@ultraprt.com When is the PRT Tipping Point? How many system contracts in 2008? –Versus “announcements” –What’s the deal with Dubai & Masdar? When will customers ask for PRT (like BAA?) –Customer studies feature PRT (like BAA)? When do sales go exponential? Will Fortune 1,000 companies enter? –Will they be genteel?
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ultraprt@ultraprt.com Socialism/Capitalism & PRT Did Bill Gates cooperate with competition? Should ATS cooperate? Will ATS’s value as a company increase from cooperation? Or do investors look for a sustainable technological advantage? IST/GTS standardized (suspended) PRT scheme –Vendors relegated to being vehicle suppliers What would Bill Gates say? Linux O/S running Excel.
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ultraprt@ultraprt.com Safety Certification ASCE APM Standards –ULTra meets the current standard –ATS and BAA are committee members UK Rail Inspectorate: similar to U.S. plus “safety designed in.” –Independent safety team meets with ULTra design team regularly. Team adds new features to address safety cases. –Inspectorate: “better than traditional systems” 361 hazard cases –Earthquake, truck crashes into column, falling debris, fire, bad people, extreme weather, vehicle fails on guideway, slipping on stairs, etc.
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ultraprt@ultraprt.com THE END
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