1. 1 UNFCCC WORKSHOP ON PREPARATION OF NATIONAL COMMUNICATIONS FROM ANNEX I PARTIES Bulgaria GHG Emission Projections - Methodology and Institutional Arrangements Dr. Christo Christov, Teodor Ivanov Energoproekt, Sofia Ministry of Environment and Water e-mail: nhh@enpro.bg IvanovT@moew.dovrn.bg tel: ++359 2 68 80 34 ++359 2 981 44 12 Bonn, Germany 28 February - 2 March 2001

2. 2 Energoproekt - coordinator of Climate Change study, research and development of National Communications, Inventories, Projections and Policies&Measures Company was established in 1948 Study and design of power projects Energy and power system study and research, n n electric system expansion planning, n n mid and long-term energy planning, n n environmental impact of power projects, n n energy efficiency, n n policy analysis, n n nuclear safety, n n hydro, thermal and nuclear power plants, transmission lines, substation, urban and rural networks design and supervision.

3. 3 Bulgaria and UN Framework Convention on Climate Change n n Bulgaria signed the Framework Convention on Climate Change in Rio. The country ratified the Convention in March 1995 thus taking the commitment to keep its GHG emissions below those in the base year. n n Pursuant to article 4 (paragraph 6) of the UNFCCC, Bulgaria used its right to choose as a base year a year different from the commonly accepted 1990, and adopted 1988 as a base year under the Convention. n n COP 3 Kyoto - the reduction target for Bulgaria during the first commitment period is 92 (i.e. 8% reduction). Such a reduction requires timely development of mitigation measures and their implementation at different levels - households, region, state.

4. 4 Bulgaria as one of the countries with economies in transition undergoes economic transformation, accompanied by the process of privatisation and restructuring of the industry. The process of transformation brings industrial production decline and related decrease of energy demand and CO 2 emissions levels..

5. 5 n n Under the existing social and economic circumstances in Bulgaria, the guiding rule of the Bulgarian climate change policy is joining the international efforts in the field to the level consistent with the national economy and the potential for attracting foreign investments to be used for GHG mitigation. n n Mitigation policy and measures should be as cost-effective and economically beneficial as possible. DOCUMENTS n n First National Communication February 1996. n n Second National Communication April 1998. n n National Action Plan June 2000. n n Third National Communication ??? November 2001.

6. 6 First National Communication Projections, Policies&Measures Objective: Developing and analyzing: n n Baseline emission scenario n n Emission mitigation scenario n n Mitigation policy and measures identification at macroeconomic, sectoral and utility level n n Effect of the policies and measures at sectorial and utility level Tools: n n Macroeconomic econometric model of neokeynsianian monetary type on macro and intersectoral level n n Bottom-up energy demand model + expert judgements n n ENPEP modules (ELECTRIC, BALANCE, IMPACT), IRP and DSM Manager - EPRI

7. 7 Macroeconomic Alternatives Two scenarios: n n Baseline scenario - no major changes in the economic structure and energy demand structure, moderate technology innovation process, slow energy efficiency improvements (business-as-usual scenario) n n Mitigation scenario - significant restructuring of economy, energy demand pattern change, including natural gas supply to households, use of renewable sources, intensive DSM in households and industry, energy conservation policy Results: n n Projections on GDP and production volumes for sectors and subsectors n n Socio-demographic projections (population, employment, unemployment, number of households)

8. 8 Energy Demand Forecast Based on two macroeconomic alternatives (GDP growth and structure, industrial production volumes, investment levels, import-export, etc.) and Bottom-up approach with expert judgements for the penetration of new technologies. Policies and Measures were developed at this stage. Useful and final energy demand projections for energy and fuels - electricity, heat, coal, natural gas, etc.for: industry (metallurgy, chemistry, building materials and other subsectors); transport ( by types: railways, automobiles, public, water, air and pipeline); agriculture; public sector (households and services); energy sector (including oil extraction, oil processing and gas transportation, coal mining, coke and briquettes production as subsectors).

9. 9 Energy System Simulation ELECTRIC and IRP Manager provide Power Sector least cost expansion plan BALANCE provides projections on primary fuel quantities, fuel and energy flows Emission Projection IMPACT provides projections on energy sector GHG emissions : - by sectors and total (“bottom-up” approach) - total/reference approach (“top-down” approach for CO 2 emissions) Non-energy emissions were not projected in the 1st NC. Implemented emission calculation methodology follows the IPCC Guidelines for GHG inventory, including structure and emission factors. Policies&Measures - general survey of strategies, legislation and sectors status. Effect is assessed at sector level

10. 10 Second National Communication n n The same methodology and approach as in the First Communication n n Additional objectives were set to the projections: to identify whether Bulgaria will be able to meet its obligations under Kyoto to identify the most efficient policies and measures at macroeconomic, sectoral, utility, enterprise and households level. n n Single macroeconomic scenario was used, due to the understanding that the introduced Currency Board would not allow for path of economic development other than the planed one. n n Non-energy emissions were projected based on the forecast for the emission source categories. Uncertainty of the macroeconomic forecast is the main source of the emission projections uncertainty

11. 11 Macro-economic indicators Macroeconomic Alternatives - First and Second National Communication - Macro-economic indicators

12. 12 Aggregated Emission Projections

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15. 15 1. Political issues:   is there a change in the governmental policy towards the national commitments under the UNFCCC&KP?   are there changes in the governmental and other institutions involved in the field of climate change?   are there new governmental and other institutions established to meet the requirements of the UNFCCC&KP?   are there personal changes of managing staff and experts (decision-makers), dealing with the issue?   what will be the official sources of information for the 3-rd NC regarding the national policy?   who will approve the 3-rd NC before sending it to the UNFCCC Secretariat? Key issues to be addressed before developing the III-rd National Communication

16. 16 2. Legislative/regulatory issues:   is there a change in the national legislation related to the meeting of the commitments under the UNFCCC&KP ?   is there a change in the legislative basis?   are there new governmental documents adopted (programs, plans, etc.) regarding the climate change problem?   where from the above information could be gathered?   is there a legal document, governmental decisions or other official act needed with regard to the development of the 3-rd NC?

17. 17 3. Methodological issues:   is there a change in the guidelines and methodology for development of the NC?   is it possible to use available sources of information used before?   what other information sources could be used?   in what way the information will be checked and verified?   are there unsolved problems regarding information confidentiality?   what are the main recommendations of the In-depth Review Team on NC-2, to be taken into consideration when developing the III-rd NC?

18. 18 4. Technical issues :  what methods will be used for correspondence with the sources of information?  is the capacity of the team selected to develop the 3-rd NC enough to cope with the new requirements?  is there a need for new experts and what new experts to be included?  is training of the team needed?  is there sufficient hardware and software support for the development of the 3 rd NC? 5. Financial issues:   what funding is necessary for the 3 rd NC?   are they available and who provides the funds?   would be additional financing needed in the course of the development of the 3 rd NC and who can supply it?

19. 19 Third National Communication n n The methodology and approach are the same as in the First and Second Communications n n Additional objectives were set to the projections: to identify the status and effect of implementation of the NCCAP P&M at governmental, sectoral, utility, enterprise and households level to identify whether Bulgaria will be able to meet Kyoto obligations under current assumptions and projections to identify whether enough capacity is available to meet the requirements of the UNFCCC guidelines to identify necessity of JI projects to meet the target and potential for ET to identify P&M (under implementation or planned for implementation) that would provoke GHG emission increase

20. 20 Institutional setting n n The Ministry of Environment and Water continues to be responsible for the climate change related activities. The NCs and GHG inventories used to be approved by the Highest Expert Council to the Ministry n n A Climate Change Interministerial Commission at the level of deputy ministers was established by the Government after the approval of the NCCAP (no activities undertaken yet). It has the authority to approve the 3rd NC n n Energoproekt continues to be a coordinator of the Climate Change study, research and development of National Communications, Inventories, Projections and Policies&Measures. An interdisciplinary team of 60 to 80 experts was involved in climate change related activities over the period 1994-1998

21. 21 Organizations involved in the preparation of the 1st and 2nd NCs n n Ministries and State Committees: Environment and Water Energy and Energy Resources Energy Efficiency Industry Finance Agriculture and Forestry Transportation Regional Development Justice Education and Science n n Research organizations: Energoproekt Bulgarian Academy of Sciences Institutes: –Hydrology and Meteorology –Forest Research –Nuclear Research and Nuclear Energy –Economics Academy of Agriculture n n NGO s n n Private Experts n n The 1st and 2nd NCs and NCCAP were developed in the frame of of the USCSP. Bulgaria has received methodological and financial support. n n USCSP support for Bulgaria was closed in March 1999.

22. 22 Financing of the preparation of the Third National Communication n n Energoproekt has received financial support to prepare the 1st and 2nd NCs and the NCCAP from the US DoE in the frame of the USCSP. n n Starting from December 1999 Energoproekt is receiving financial support for the climate change activities from the National Environmental Fund at contractual basis. The financing that Energoproekt will get from the fund is as follows: Processing of 1999 Inventory - 610 US $ Preparation of the Third National Communication - 3 100 US $ Practically these activities are performed in Energoproekt at a voluntary basis. No other research institutes and/or private experts are involved due to the lack of financing

23. 23 Conclusions The chapters on the P&M and Projections form the core of the NCs. These chapters reflect in the best way the concern with the climate change related activities in the countries, the measures undertaken and the professional level of the experts involved in the field.

24. 24 Conclusions n n Uncertainty of the macroeconomic forecast is the major source of uncertainty of emission projections. n n A single macroeconomic scenario is acceptable for the short and mid-term projections. n n The GHG inventory approach to the emission calculations in the projections is the best way to achieve comparability across inventory results and projected emissions. n n P&M implementation should be reflected in the projections as a change in activity data and emission factors. n n Financing is the critical issue for a high quality and timely development of the III-rd NC of Bulgaria.