1. EPA Perspective on GEO-CAPE Dr. Pai-Yei Whung Chief Scientist Office of the Science Advisor U.S. Environmental Protection Agency GEO-CAPE Workshop UNC – Chapel Hill August 18, 2008

2. 2 Meeting Objective Engender conversation between EPA and NASA scientists about EPA’s scientific goals for GEO-CAPE. Provide NASA with an understanding of EPA’s environmental mission, data needs, and limitations of current data sources. Facilitate the development of instrumentation requirements on GEO-CAPE that will maximize EPA’s societal benefits.

3. 3 EPA Offices with an interest in GEO-CAPE Office of the Science Advisor (OSA) Office of Research and Development (ORD) Office of Air and Radiation (OAR) Office of Water (OW) Office of Policy, Economics, & Innovation (OPEI) Ten Regional Offices

4. 4 GEO-CAPE From the NAS/NRC Decadal Report (2007) Expectations Identification of human versus natural sources of aerosols and ozone precursors Dynamics of coastal ecosystems, river plumes, and tidal fronts Observation of air pollution transport in North, Central, and South America Capabilities of instruments UV-visible-near-IR wide-area imaging spectrometer (7-km nadir pixel) Hourly intervals Steerable high-spatial-resolution (250 m) event-imaging spectometer with a 300-km field of view

5. 5 Air Quality Relevant Satellite Measurements - Current Time resolution of current space-observing system is insufficient to: Observe transport of pollution on a regional basis Observe chemical formation/transformation of two EPA criteria pollutants (PM and O3). Applied research has shown retrievals of Aerosol and NO2 can capture variability in the boundary layer and currently have the closest connection to air quality at the surface. Techniques to obtain daily or weekly boundary layer data for Ozone, CO, and SO2 are evolving; but, additional development will be needed to make these measurements more useful for air quality applications. For daily urban scale applications clouds present the primary obstacle for satellite remote sensing of the boundary layer. (Martin, 2008)

6. 6 The Air Quality Management Framework* DETERMINE NECESSARY REDUCTIONS DESIGN CONTROL STRATEGIES IMPLEMENT EVALUATE RESULTS EVALUATE RESULTS ESTABLISH GOALS ESTABLISH GOALS -- National, Regional Rules -e.g. Mobile, NSPS -NOx SIP call, CAIR -- Develop State, Local, Tribal Plans -- State Implementation Plans (SIPs) -- Permits -- Compliance & Enforcement - National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) - Regional Haze -- Monitoring -- Inventories -- Data Analysis & Modeling -- Assess Progress -- Evaluate Effectiveness & Efficiency Efficiency Scientific Research Impacts of Poor Air Quality on Society 106 million+ people in the US live in areas with poor air quality + Aerosols (PM 2.5 ): Human Health Impacts cardiovascular disease, respiratory diseases, and cancer Reduce visibility Impacts Climate Ozone: Human Health Impacts irritate to respiratory system reduce lung function inflammation and damage cells that line lungs aggravate asthma and chronic lung diseases * Scheffe et al., JAWMA 2007 Science of Air Quality (NRC, 2004)

7. 7 Source, NRC 2004 Science of Air Quality Atmospheric Modeling Exposure Modeling Inverse Modeling – Top Down Constraints on Emission Sources Data Assimilation – Constraints on vertical distribution, aerosol loading and composition Model Verification – Characterize errors and uncertainties Best Estimate of Surface Spatial Distributions of Pollutants, including Composition Examples of Measurement Needs

8. 8 Adversity of Effects Proportion of Population Affected Annual PM2.5 (1997) Form: Annual Arithmetic Mean Level: 15.0 ug/m3 24-hr PM2.5 (2006) Form: 98 th percentile Level= 35 ug/m3 8-hr O3 (1997) Form: 4 th daily max Level =0.08 ppm 8-hr O3 (2008) 0.075 ppm Health Based Standards are Science Drivers

9. 9 Air Quality & Health Community of Practice The Public

10. 10 How Would EPA Use GEO-CAPE Data? Regulatory Responsibilities The Clean Air Act (CAA) requires EPA to set National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for six common air pollutants (“criteria pollutants”): particulate matter, ground-level ozone, carbon monoxide, sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides, and lead. To regulate criteria pollutants, EPA develops human health-based criteria for setting permissible levels (primary standards). Retrospective analysis of rules. Air Quality Forecasting Advance existing capabilities, e.g., AIRNow. Partnership between EPA, NOAA, and NASA Diagnosing modeling outputs. Ecological Forecasting Integration of water and airshed data Harmful algal blooms

11. 11 EPA Experience with Satellite Data For water quality in coastal areas, EPA is using observations on blooms including harmful examples, swimming water characteristics, sediment transport and wetland condition. EPA is already embracing the use of satellite observations in its research for improving the CMAQ model (Rob Pinder will talk about this later). EPA has shown an interest in using space measurements and is already working with NOAA/NESDIS to develop algorithms for NO2 retrieval from GOME-2/METOP.

12. 12 Using Satellite Images to Identify Water Quality Risks EPA (with NOAA and the Naval Research Lab) is developing analytical tools and models to better predict unsafe conditions at the nation’s beaches. Data from satellite imagery can advance our beaches monitoring capabilities. EPA will examine the role of nearshore lake conditions and determine the timing and location of sediment and organic material plumes. If these plumes are involved in the outbreak, early identification and characterization using daily satellite measurements may improve prediction of unhealthy pathogen levels and provide early warning of beach closures.

13. 13 GeoTRACE GeoTRACE was a mission concept to observe air pollution for the first time in the same way that weather is observed: every hour, from space, across the continent Decadal Survey White Paper 105: Earth’s First Time-Resolved Mapping of Air Pollution from Space Jack Fishman, Doreen Neil, James Crawford (NASA); R. Bradley Pierce (NASA, now NOAA); David Edwards (NCAR); Kelly Chance, Thomas Kurosu (Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics); W. Paul Menzel (NOAA); Gary Foley, Rich Scheffe (US EPA) Source: David Edwards (Jack Fishman et al., 2008)

14. 14 How can we assess and manage risks from exposures involving complex mixtures of air pollutants that fall into multiple physical- chemical classes? Which sources of air pollution most severely impact exposure and health, and how does this vary across the country? How can we evaluate the benefits of prior regulatory decisions that were intended to reduce pollutant concentrations and adverse health outcomes? EPA Air Quality Science Questions Understand and improve predictive capability for changes in the ozone layer, climate forcing, and air quality associated with changes in atmospheric composition NASA Research Objective NASA Earth Science Questions GEOCAPE Science Questions How is atmospheric composition changing? (variability) What trends is atmospheric constituents and solar radiation are driving global climate change? (Forcing) How do atmospheric trace constituents respond to affect global environmental change? (Response) What are the effects of global atmospheric chemical and climate changes on regional air quality? (Consequences) How will future changes in atmospheric composition affect ozone, climate and global air quality? (Prediction) Reduce uncertainties in linking health and environmental outcomes to air pollution sources Potential Architecture for NASA & EPA Collaboration GEOCAPE WORKSHOP OUTCOME

15. 15 How does the Community work Towards: A common nexus of goals and objectives Long-term commitment (5-10 years) A defined plan focused on outcomes Forging Partnerships among GEOCAPE and the EPA Science Community

16. 16 Supplemental Slides

17. 17 GEO-CAPE Background NAS/NRC Report – Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond (2007) One of 15 missions recommended to NASA for implementation over the next decade Focus on: coastal ecosystems and air quality Launch: 2013-2016 Geostationary Earth orbit $550 million Mission Description: Atmospheric gas columns for air quality forecasts; ocean color for coastal ecosystem health and climate emissions

18. 18 Summary: AQ Measurements from Space The Air Quality Community is new to satellite observations. Current set of NASA-EOS instruments provided the first opportunity to EPA to conduct quantitative research and begin to build capacity. GOES-R & MetOp (GOME-2) will allow that effort to continue in a operational environment. What else is needed: Trace gas observations relevant to air quality in the boundary layer: O3, NO2, CO, SO2, HCHO, NH3, and aerosol (composition). The diurnal variability and meteorological processes that drive air quality require high spatial and temporal resolution (as can be achieved by geostationary satellites).

19. 19 Questions for Discussion Can a geostationary satellite like GEO-CAPE obtain vertical information? (e.g., this is important for ozone) How can GEO-CAPE data (gases and aerosols) be used to support future potential greenhouse gas (GHG) rules? What are potential tradeoffs in capabilities? (i.e., improving the precision or interval of one measurement will reduce the precision or interval of another measurement)

20. 20 Ozone – Information Needs Hemispheric Transport - the background level of ozone The Exceptional Event - the variability in climate appear to cause an increase in the likelihood of "exceptionally" frequent air quality action days Real Time Adaptation - with real time data and reliable forecasts