1. Monitoring Weather Hazards in UgandaBy
Catherine Mulinde Kafeero
Meteorologist
Department of Meteorology

2. Uganda and its neighbours

4. Severe Weather Thresholds
Precipitation - ≥ 30mm/24hrs
Winds - ≥ 20knots
Temperatures - ≥ 350 C

6. Drought Risk in Africa - Uganda

7. Drought affected areas in Uganda

8. The residents look-on helpless after the occurrence of the landslide while they resorted to using hand hoes with hope of rescuing their loved ones with the help of army soldiers (UPDF).
On March 2, 2012, a landslide in Bududa (Eastern Uganda) left 300 people dead, loss of property and thousands homeless.
However, the DoM had issued a warning which was rather ignored.

9. The landslides were attributed to widespread deforestation on the slopes of Mt. Elgon.
Deforestation is one of the threats to environmental sustainability in the country

10. Floods are common in Kampala; the capital city of Uganda, western, central and Eastern regions especially during the El-Niño phenomenon.
They damage structures, crops, animals and settlements.
Water borne diseases like
cholera, dysentery, and
typhoid are also common.

11. Teso Flash Floods of Sept, 2007
Stranded villagers in Teso awaiting rescue when floods swept away their property
Floods disrupted and
paralysed traffic in Teso

12. Landslides buried,destroyed and damaged homes

13. Landslide in upper Bulambuli in Sisiyi sub county

14. Some flooded homes in Bulambuli

15. Floods in Kampala

16. SWFDP workshop, 28 Nov . 03 Dec 2011, Arusha, Tanzania
In Sebei sub region, Kween district, ngenge subcounty where floods have displaced over 5000 people due to severe rains.
SWFDP workshop, 28 Nov . 03 Dec 2011, Arusha, Tanzania

17. Floods in lower Bulambuli district

18. Due to land-lake breeze effect, Lake Victoria basin is reported with the highest average annual frequency of lightning and thunderstorms in the world (Bukoba reports 226 days per year, Kampala 222 days, Entebbe 211days and Kisumu 202 days). More than 800 people in May 1995 were capsized in Lake Victoria
June, students and a teacher died after lightning struck their school in the country’s mid-west. In another school, northwest of Kampala – 37 students and two teachers were killed
October, Three radio stations also say recent lightning has damaged their transmission equipment

19. Coverage of case study: Kalangala Islands

20. Forecast Tools employed
Synoptic Chart Analysis,
Ensemble Forecast,
Probabilities and NWP guidance (HRM, WRF, NCEP, UKMO, ECMWF)
Precipitation maps from NOAA and UK Africa LAM.
Satellite Imageries from Eumetsat

21. Southern Africa Synoptic Analysis
St. Helena and the Mascarene anticyclones were tremendously weakened by the numerous low pressure systems in their vicinity
As a result the zonal arm of the ITCZ was mainly confined to the southern sector of the country
The meridional arm of the ITCZ was also over our region

22. MSL and 850hpa wind speed

23. 700hpa Relative Humidity and Winds
Relative humidity levels around Lake Victoria varied between 80% and 95%
These high humidity levels were as a result of moist southwesterly winds blown over our region by the maritime portion of the Mascarene anticyclone

24. UK Lam Precipitation maps
UK LAM showed strong signal for relatively heavy precipitation in the Northern and Eastern shores of Lake Victoria in the morning
The signal was weak for afternoon precipitation

25. Total Surface Precipitation Probabilities (at least 10mm)

26. ECMWF EFI and EPS
The EFI showed no indication of a severe weather event in and around Lake Victoria
For the 1st and 2nd six-hourly forecasts the EPS members’ prediction of total precipitation had low confidence
The forecast for the 3rd six hours had a high confidence in which almost all the ensemble members predicted total precipitation in the region of 1mm/6hr
In the last 6hours, 99% of the ensemble members predicted precipitation of 4mm or less

27. NCEP GFS Forecast for CAPE

28. Ncep GFS Forecast for Precipitable Water
The CAPE values were low over the region
Precipitable water values were relatively high
This implied insufficient energy for lifting moisture thus culminating into low convective activity over the region

29. Regional Guidance Products
RSMC - Nairobi
RFSC – Dar-es-salaam

30. Day 1 and 2 Risk Tables Forecast issued on 17th November, 2012
Valid for 17th and 18th November, 2012
Medium heavy rains expected for Eastern and western Uganda
Degree of confidence being medium ( 50 – 75% )

31. Real-Time Satellite Observations

32. Challenges Inadequate data Insufficient facilities and personnel
Model output simulations
Low Public Trust