1. Influence of space climate and space weather on the Earth Tamara Kuznetsova IZMIRAN Russia Heliophysical phenomena and Earth's environment, 7-13 September 2009, Sibenik, Croatia

2. Topic and its importance  Topic is connection between temporal changes of solar activity (W) and fundamental parameters of the Earth: global temperature (Tgl) and rotation velocity (  ) on different time scales  IPCC: solar influence on climate is the most unclear mechanism. Present trend in Tgl ~0.5- 0.6 0 C/100yr is effect of manmade gas CO 2. Akasofu (2007): “IPCC rate contains significant natural components”

3. Aims of the study  To identify and to analyze temporal changes of oscillations with the same periods from the spectra of Tgl, W and ω in the past, present and close future  To compare long-term trends in W (which determines space climate) and in Tgl  Based on results of analysis to discuss possible physical mechanisms

4. Methods and data used  Nonlinear spectral method named by the method of global minimum (MGM). MGM allows self-consistent identification of non-stationary sinusoids and trends from data (Kuznetsova et al,. 1995 Tsirulnik et al., 1997)  Annual sunspot numbers W for 1700-2005  Global temperature – multi proxy data from 17 sites worldwide for the last 1000 years– Jones et al. (1998). Millennial temperature reconstraction, data series #1998-039.  Earth’s rotation rate  for period 1656-2000 - Sidorenkov (2002);

5. Long-term trend in temperature  Maunder Minimum at ~1700 yr  Rate~0.5 0 C/100y Akasofu (2007): “the recovery rate from the Little Ice Age may be as much as 0.5°C/100 yrs”  Future maxumum of Tgl at t~2200 yr (extrapolation) Plot of trend described nonstationary sinusoid at period T~1000 yr from the spectrum of Tgl

6. Parameters of 1000-yr trend in Tgl Temporal changes of phase in the 1000-yr trend; t~1300 yr is maximal velocity of the phase change  Phase shift Δφ=1.5rad. for t~1000-1400 increased period of the trend; Synchronization of orbital periods?  t~1300 yr is time of anomaly in Earth’s rotation (Sidorenkov, 2000) ; unexplained deceleration of Moon and Earth at ~300 BC-1300 AD yrs (Newton,1972) Astronomical forcing - P4U?

7. Parameters of 1000-yr trend in Tgl Temporal changes of amplitude ( 0 C) of trend at T~1000 yr for 1000-2000 yrs ; t ~1270 is minimum Temporal changes of the phase acceleration in trend at T~1000 yr; t~1200 is min, t~1400 is max  epoch of damping (amplitude decrease) and of building up (amplitude increase) of oscillations - nonlinear physical mechanism responsible for the 1000-yr oscillations  Earth passed perihelion of its orbit during winter solstice at ~1300 yr; previous coincidence in ~20,000 BC  astronomical forcing (P4UN)?

8. Trends in W and Tgl Trend described by nonstationary sinusoid at T~1000 yr from spectrum of global temperature for 1700-2050 Trend in W described by sinusoid at T~2000 yr from spectrum of sunspots; t~2020 yr is maximum

9. Comparison of spectra W, Tgl, ω  We analyze components of the spectra which statistical confidence level is higher than 95 %  Spectra of W and Tgl (within error bars) have cycles with the same periods: T=200, T=130, T=48, T=30, T=22, T=24, T=10 yrs  Spectra of W and ω (within error bars) have cycles with the same periods: T=200, T=130, T=48, T=30, T=22, T=24, T=10, T=5.3 yrs

10. 200-year cycle in Tgl and ω  Rate of the Tgl change from ~1870 to ~1970 is 0.25 0 C/100yr  Cycles varied in phase for the period ~1950-1970, in opposite phase after  Tgl is decreasing, Earth accelerates its rotation for now Temparal changes of 200-yr cycles in global temperature and angular velocity of Earth for the period 1650-2000

11. 30-yr and 10-yr cycles in W and Tgl Plot of 30-yr sine waves from spectra of W and Tgl for period 1700-2050 Plot of 10-yr sine waves from spectra of W and Tgl for period 1700-2050

12. 22-year cycles in W and Tgl Plot of 22-yr nonstationary sinusoids from spectra of W and Tgl for period 1700-2050 Plot of 22-yr nonstationary sinusoids from spectra of W and ω for period 1700-2000

13. Analysis of 22-year cycles  22-yr cycles in W and in Tgl vary in phase during all interval: even 11-yr solar cycles correspond to cooling of Tgl, but odd 11-yr cycles to warming  22-yr cycles in Tgl and in ω vary in phase during all interval: necessary impulse moment for Tgl to be changed (change of atmosphere circulation) is not taken from the Earth.  22-yr temperature cycle in NH and SH vary almost in opposite phase (but has different amplitudes): 22-yr cycle in Tgl is result of asymmetric influence of odd and even 11-yr solar cycles on the hemisphere temperature (can be explained by electromagnetic interaction of solar magnetic and electric fields with geospheres)

14. Conclusions  Contributions of trends play determining role in data of W and Tgl for analyzed time interval  Change of oscillation regime of the 1000-yr cycle in Tgl (trend) that lead to rise of its amplitude occurred in ~1250 during anomaly of Earth’s rotation. Rise of Tgl with rate ~0.5 0 C/100 yr from Maunder minimum to present is comparable with what IPCC presents as CO 2 effect. The cycle will reach its maximum at ~2200 yr. The 2000-yr cycle in W (trend) shows synchronous changes with the trend in Tgl for period 1700-2000.  Connection of W and Tgl has different character on different time scales: 130-yr cycles vary in phase before ~1870 and in antiphase after; 200-yr cycles – in phase; 30-yr and 10-yr cycles vary in opposite phase; 22-yr cycles vary in phase etc. The latter points to that even and odd 11-yr solar cycles influence by different way on Tgl.

15. Heliophysical phenomena and Earth's environment, 7-13 September 2009, Sibenik, Croatia THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!