1. WP 3. Present and future projections of climate effects (Leader: Gunnar Myhre, co-leader Ivar Isaksen, CICERO) Partners: CICERO, UCAM Task 3.1: Current influence of methane emissions from the seabed (CICERO) Task 3.2: Future impact of methane emissions from the seabed (CICERO) Task 3.3: Investigation of the strength of the bio geophysical cycle of methane emissions from the seabed (CICERO) Milestone 3.1: Impact on current atmospheric distribution of CH 4 emissions from the seabed (M24) Milestone 3.2: Future radiative forcing of direct and indirect effect CH 4 emissions from the seabed (M30) Milestone 3.3: Future temperature changes from effect CH 4 emissions from the seabed (M33) Milestone 3.4: Quantification of potential of the bio-geochemical cycle of CH 4 emissions (M33)

2. WP 3. Present and future projections of climate effects Task 3.1: Current influence of methane emissions from the seabed (CICERO) OsloCTM3 will be used simulate the influence on the atmospheric composition from the current emissions of CH 4 from the seabed as derived in WP1 (all tasks) and WP2, task 2.2. Modelling tools ready to be used and used for the 1970-2012 period within the GAME project The challenge is the emissions to be included in the simulations

3. Days ppbv Simulations shown on Tuesday by Stig Dalsøren

4. Figure SPM.8 -Temperature -Sea ice -Wind

5. WP 3. Present and future projections of climate effects Task 3.2: Future impact of methane emissions from the seabed (CICERO) Methane emissions from the seabed as derived in WP2 task 2.3 will be used to calculate changes in the CH 4 distribution and indirect effect of CH 4 and its radiative forcing and temperature changes. Simulations will be performed for different time periods in particular 2050 and 2100 and CH 4 emission scenarios. Sensitivity simulations on the time duration of CH 4 emissions will be performed. Modelling tools ready to be used – OsloCTM2 as well as NCAR climate model Representativness for NCAR climate model in relation to other CMIP5 models Changes in winds from current to 2050 and 2100 in CMIP5

6. WP 3. Present and future projections of climate effects Task 3.3: Investigation of the strength of the bio geophysical cycle of methane emissions from the seabed (CICERO) The temperature changes in Task 3.2 will be used to derive whether the change is sufficient to change the CH 4 emissions from the seabed as investigated in WP2. The potential strength of the cycle will be investigated. This work depends very much on outcome from WP2 Same tools as Task 3.2