1. INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON WATER RESOURCES IN ECUADOR: A CASE STUDY OF HYDROELECTRIC PRODUCTION & DROUGHTS WATER RESOURCES PROJECT:

2. Coordinators: Edison Heredia-Calderón Remigio H. Galarraga-Sánchez Participants: Alexandre Gagnon Andrea Ray Claudine Dereczynski Giampaolo Orlandoni Ileana Mora Marcos Costa Patricia Jaime Simone Ferraz Thomas Pagano

4. OBJECTIVE

6. Calculate rainfall anomalies in terms of variance PA = P – P  p where P : mean precipitation  p : standard deviation of precipitation Monthly precipitation anomalies correlated with SST anomalies in region SST in region Niño1+2, Niño 3, and Niño 4 SOI Identification of ENSO signal on the climate of Ecuador

7. The Relationship Between SOI and Rainfall Anomalies in Portoviejo

8. SST in Region Niño 1+2 versus Rainfall Anomalies in Portoviejo

9. SST in Region Niño 3 versus Rainfall Anomalies in Portoviejo

10. SSTA Niño 1+2 versus rainfall anomalies in Portoviejo

11. Correlation Between Strong El Niño versus Rainfall Anomalies in Coastal Ecuador

12. Monthly Average Precipitation at Paute (1963-1999)

13. Monthly Precipitation versus Niño 1+2 at Paute

14. Monthly Precipitation versus Niño 3 at Paute

15. Monthly Precipitation versus SOI at Paute

16. Niño4 SST Anomaly Sep-Dec versus Jan-Aug Cumulative Streamflow at Paute 1968-95

17. North Atlantic SSTA Feb-Mar-Apr Average correlated with Jan-Aug Cumulative Streamflow at Paute

18. Hydroelectric power production at Paute river Mean yearly inflow discharge for normal, dry and wet years. Cumulated mass (discharge and volume) x inflow volumes for wet, dry and normal years

19. MEAN YEARLY INFLOW DISCHARGE AT PAUTE

20. CUMULATED MASS CURVES (Discharge and Volume)

21. DAILY ENERGY PRODUCTION, INFLOW AND RESERVOIR ELEVATION (OCT, 1995)

22. RAINFALL - RUNOFF MODEL " N L C " DEFINITION OF THE MODEL NLC is aimed at simulation of outflow from natural catchments. conceptual model consisting of storage (linear and nonlinear) elements. NLC represents a single, two-component, rainfall-runoff model capable of modeling groundwater flow and direct runoff. NLC is a lumped type MODE the input into the model is total rainfall over the catchment in each time interval.

23. Input Data Rainfall is provided at each simulation step. It could be supplied in two ways: - up to ten rain gauges - areal averages. Calibration procedure is not part of the package. Trial-and-error procedure must be used.

25. MODEL VARIABLES PAinput precipitation (mm) ETPevapotranspiration (mm) PEeffective precipitation (mm) Qsdirect runoff (m 3 /s) GIgroundwater input (m 3 /s) Qggroundwater runoff (m 3 /s) Qtotal runoff (m 3 /s) QDD deep percolation (mm) parameters of the unsaturated zone - ENN maximum water holding capacity (mm) - EFactual water content (mm) Other parameters

26. Simulated and Observed Discharge at Paute - 1989

27. Climatic Zones at Paute Basin

28. M050 ARENALES - COLA DE SAN PABLO PRECIPITACION MEDIA

29. Climatic Zones at Paute Basin

30. M067 CUENCA AEROPUERTO PRECIPITACION MEDIA

31. Climatic Zones at Paute Basin

32. M541 COCHAPAMBA QUINGEO PRECIPITACION MEDIA

33. Climatic Zones at Paute Basin

34. M418 CUMBE PRECIPITACION MEDIA

35. M138 PAUTE PRECIPITACION MEDIA