1. Constructing a base-line NTA for Chile: preliminary findings Jorge Bravo with the assistance of Mauricio Holz ECLAC/CELADE-Population Division Presented at the 3 rd Meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers, Honolulu, Hawaii, January 20-22, 2006

2. Acknowledgements  Team at ECLAC/CELADE, NTA project group  Government of Chile: Budget Office, Ministry of Finance; National Statistical Institute, Planning Ministry  Funding from the government of France, NIH project

3. A base-line NTA for Chile: results to date 1. Private and public consumption 2. Labor earnings and cross-over ages: a closer look 3. Public spending: in-kind and cash transfers 4. Taxes

4. a) Estimated private consumption with data from Budget and Expenditure Survey (BES) 1996/97, imputing all allocable items (food, alcohol and tobacco, clothing, education), and applied standard weights to the rest b) Public consumption was estimated by matching social expenditure items with program-specific age profiles identified in the Socioeconomic Characterization Survey (CASEN) of 2000 1. Private and public consumption

6. Public consumption

7. c) Labor income was obtained from same source used for private consumption, i.e., the Budget and Expenditure Survey (BES). Defined as main and secondary occupation earnings, including allowances and earnings of independent workers (formal and informal) 2. Labor earnings

9. Labor earnings: a closer look

13. 3. Public spending/transfers

14. Public transfers

17. 4. Taxes  Indirect taxes: value-added, excise, trade tariffs & others. 75% of revenue, 53% is VA  Direct taxes: First category (on profits, paid by firms), second category (payroll); global (all income); additional (levied on non- residents withdrawals and remittances). 25% of revenue

18. Taxes

19. A base-line NTA for Chile: plan for 2006  Finalize base-year estimates: adjustment to NIPA totals, check consistency of income profile with other statistical sources & compare with other countries  Implement measurements of lifecycle deficit and public transfers for at least one more year and estimates for 1986-2005  Start investigation of private transfers and asset reallocations  Develop models for analysis and projection of pension system variables, health and other sectors