1. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI How certain can we be about climate change? How do we manage the unavoidable? How do we avoid the unmanageable? Finding policy alliances for climate change Climate change: the latest evidence Professor Mike Hulme Director, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research LCVP Annual Conference, 15 June 2006, London

2. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI can we be certain about climate change?

3. UK warming

4. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI Physical evidence … the Vernagt Glacier, Austria

5. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI Extreme central European summer temperature … 2003 Source: Luterbacher et al. 2004

6. CO 2 concentrations

7. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI Risk of overshooting 2ºC target Source: den Elzen and Meinshausen

8. pH reduced by 0.3 to 0.4 by 2100 under IS92a (i.e., a 100% to 150% increase in [H + ]) Orr et al. 2005 (Nature) Changes in ocean pH

9. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI how do we manage the unavoidable? … building a resilient society

10. Tools for adaptation planning UK national climate scenarios Risk assessment framework UK climate change programme

11. Heatwave 2003 – health care Record high temperatures (>37°C) in southeast England (and west-central Europe) in early August 2003 15,000 premature deaths across west-central Europe, mostly the elderly This led to UK National Health Service issuing a “Heatwave Plan for England” to minimise future adverse effects on human health

12. Public investment

13. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI how do we avoid the unmanageable?... building a low carbon economy

14. Decoupling growth, consumption and emissions Source: UK Climate Change Programme

15. Trade, tax or technology?

16. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI Negotiating beyond 2012 Source: David Victor

17. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI finding policy alliances for climate change

18. The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI policy alliances energy security environmental protection energy efficiency ‘making poverty history’