1. Containing Aviation Emissions in the Short-term
Mike Barclay
Regional Vice President Asia Pacific
IATA

2. Aviation & Climate Change
What are the challenges?
The way forward
Aviation Environment
April 2008

3. Aviation’s Contribution to CO2 Emissions
Global CO2 Emissions
Our carbon footprint is small but growing
From 2% today to 3% in 2050 (IPCC)
The IPCC estimates that aviation today is responsible for 2 percent of global CO2 emissions with a total climate change impact of 3 percent. These figures have remained largely unchanged over the last two decades, despite the growth of air traffic.
Projecting forward to 2050, the IPCC has aviation at 3 percent of global CO2 emissions and 5-6 percent of climate change impact. We are and will remain a small part of the big problem of climate change.
Nonetheless, aviation's carbon footprint is growing, and that is politically unacceptable for any industry. The challenge is to keep the many benefits of aviation - unprecedented global mobility that supports 32 million jobs and $3.5 billion worth of economic activity - while eliminating its negative impacts.
Aviation Environment
Source: IPPC/WRI
April 2008

4. Strong Industry track record
Over the last 40 years
Soot has been eliminated
Noise reduced 75%
Fuel efficiency improved 70%
IATA Target: Further improve fuel
efficiency 25% by 2020
Strong Track Record
We have a good track record on environmental performance
Over the last 40 years
Soot has been eliminated
Noise reduced 75%
And fuel efficiency improved 70%
IATA's target is to improve fuel efficiency by 25% by ATA has gone further by committing to 30% by 2025
Aviation Environment
April 2008

5. Growing carbon footprint
Future traffic growth: 5.2% per annum
Emissions growth: ~3% per annum
Imperative to decouple further
Constraints:
Safety must not be compromised
Long implementation timelines
Single fuel technology
Dependence on governments for airspace management
Aviation Environment
April 2008

6. Aviation & Climate Change
What are the challenges?
The way forward
Aviation Environment
April 2008

7. Our Vision Is for carbon neutral growth
Leading to a zero carbon emissions future
Requires a comprehensive Industry approach
Airlines, manufacturers, airports, ANSPs
Requires government support
Infrastructure
Economic Incentives
Vision
Our vision is for
Carbon neutral growth
Leading to a zero carbon emissions future
We can only achieve this with cooperation
The industry is aligned
Airlines
Manufacturers
And infrastructure providers
Now we need governments to follow-up their lofty words on environment
With actions that deliver results
Aviation Environment
April 2008

8. IATA Four Pillar Strategy
Technology
Airframe, engine
Cleaner bio-fuels, new energy sources
Infrastructure
Improve air routes, ATM & airport procedures
Aircraft operations
Drive for maximum efficiency & minimum weight
Economic instruments
Incentives to finance technology R & D
Carbon offsets & trading
The IATA Four Pillar Strategy Guides our efforts
Investment in technology
Better Operations
Improved Infrastructure
Economic Measures
This was endorsed by ICAO at the 2007 Assembly
Aviation Environment
April 2008

9. Carbon Neutral Growth Time 200 Technology Operations Infrastructure
Economic instruments
Time
100
200
Operations
Traffic growth (5% pa)
Technology
Emissions growth (2-3% pa)
Aviation Environment
April 2008

10. Pillar 1: Technology - Aircraft
Short term:
Aerodynamics
Weight reductions
Engine upgrades
Medium term :
New wing & fuselage profiles
Next generation engines
Long term:
Entire new aircraft design
IATA actions:
Industry united and mobilized
Technology roadmap
Regulatory environment
Before I talk about the IATA actions, a few minutes on the opportunities :
Aircraft & Engine Technology enhancements will account for at least 75% of the envisaged efficiency improvements.
Short Term: Aircraft Upgrades
Aerodynamic improvements include winglets, improved slat or flap design , improved seals and fairings.
A number of manufacturers offer weight reduction programs on the entire aircraft including the cabin interior and the seats.
Just the change of the cushion material can save up to 200kg in a narrow body aircraft.
In addition – all engine manufacturers offer upgrades of their engines already including more advanced blade design, improved burning characteristics and more.
Medium Term Fleet Renewal
Next generation aircraft are expected to have a new fuselage design (like the A350XWB) and further efficient wing structures.
The engine manufacturers are working intensively on new engine designs with higher by-pass ratios including Geared Turbo Fans, Heat Exchanger and improved combustion chambers
Long term: Greener Aircraft
Employing all evaluated new technologies on new aircraft will be required to achieve another 10 –20% greater efficiency
Aviation Environment
April 2008

11. Pillar 1: Technology - Alternative Fuels
Several Industry initiatives
Airbus Gas-to Liquids Test 0208
Virgin Biofuels Test 0208
Air New Zealand Biofuels Test Q408
IATA actions
Provide information and knowledge
Development of fuel specification
Support Drop-In fuels
100% sustainable fuels in long term
What is IATA’s involvement ?
Through our industry task force we provide
up to date information to our airline members (2007 report in final stage)
Raise awareness about opportunities, availabilities and operational consequences
Cooperate with the industry on the development of an appropriate fuel specification as a global standard
Our position is clear
1) Preference is for a drop-in product which allows the utilization of existing refinery technology, lowering the burden for new investments and operates in current and future engines
2) Allows a flexible blending with traditional fuel
3) Avoids environmental degradation in the entire life-cycle
Slide 12: Airbus tested an A380 using an alternative fuel derived from natural gas converted to jet fuel. This is not much to write home about as it probably emits more in a full life-cycle analysis than normal jet fuel but it was a first attempt, earlier this year to fly a plane on something besides kerosene. The Virgin test was the first to really use a biofuel (derived form coconuts and palm oil). Although some dismissed the test as a Branson publicity stunt, it was an important test and again demonstrated that sir craft can fly on alternative fuels. Air NZ have announced that they will carry out a test later this year. The point of all these three are that they demonstrate that the industry is doing all that it can to find alternative fuel sources and to stimulate research and investment into this area. Our position right now is that we want to see more development of 3rd generation biofuels, e.g. derived from algae - as this is the most promising way forward and avoids all the pitfalls associated with crop-based biofuels as raised by CS Chew.
Aviation Environment
April 2008

12. Pillar 2: Operations “Green Team” programme Flight Operations:
30 Gap Analyses in 2007– Saving US$ 1.3bn and 7m tonnes of CO2
Target of further 6 m tonnes in 2008
Flight Operations:
APU vs. Ground Power
Flight Management
Continuous Descent Approach
Engineering & Maintenance:
Weight reduction
Maintenance initiatives
Dispatch:
Flight Planning accuracy
Fuel planning
FLT Ops:
Flight Management System programming - how plane is positioned in the air
Reserve fuel calculations
Use of APU vs. Ground Power
Engineering and Maintenance
Engine Wash
Door alignment
Weight reduction
Dispatch:
Accurate Flight Planning
Fuel consumption calculations
Ground Ops
Lighter tugs
Boeing nose wheel
Slide 13: SQ saved around 50,000 tonnes of CO2 during a test to increase the frequency of fuselage washing thus reducing drag. LH has a new flight planning optimisation tool LIDO and this has led to savings of some 70,000 tonnes of CO2. They a re both anecdotal examples and you can leave them out without jeopardising the rest.
Aviation Environment
April 2008

13. Pillar 3: Infrastructure
Optimisation of routes & terminal areas
Fuel savings 2007:
US$ 817 million
377 routes
80 airports
3.73 million tonnes CO2
See hidden slide (next slide)
Aviation Environment
April 2008

14. Pillar 3: Infrastructure: Government Action Needed
Implement global ATM standards
Performance-based navigation
Single European Sky
U.S. NextGen
Continued expansion of RVSM
Russia, Central Asia and Africa
Airports
Arrival / departures procedures
Continuous Descent Approaches (CDA)
Focus on problem areas, e.g. JFK, LHR, Pearl River Delta
Reduced separation in oceanic airspace
Pillar 3: Infrastructure : Action 2008 following focus:
12 % improvement possible, evaluate exactly where we can gain the best reduction
Single European Sky Implementation
Could save 12 million tonnes of CO2 each year
Continued expansion of RVSM
Russia, Central Asia and Africa,
Focus on Airports and arrival/departures
Intensify design and implementation of RNAV or RNP procedures
PBN (Performance Based Navigation) compliance, 3 to 4 quick start projects to be initiated by IATA in 2008, Each region has targets to push for implementation
increase Continuous Descent Approaches, Noise abatement procedures were designed for older generation aircraft
Focus on problem airports, e.g. JFK,
Reduced Separation in oceanic airspace
Reduced separation will allow more aircraft to fly at optimum altitudes. Fuel savings 1-5%
Aviation Environment
April 2008

15. China: implemented 21 Nov
1.1 MIL tons CO2 China and
0.12 MIL tons CO2 for Algeria
China: implemented 21 Nov
1.1 M tonnes CO2

16. Economic Measures Taxes and charges do nothing for the environment
Emissions trading
Could play a role, if properly designed
Must be global, voluntary and fair
Carbon offsetting programmes
Influence consumers’ behaviour
26+ airlines offer carbon offset programmes
Need harmonisation, certification & recognition
IATA developing industry level programme
The fourth pillar of IATA’s 4-pillar strategy is economic measures.
Here, IATA is fighting against the imposition of taxes and charges which take money out of the industry that could be going to the other three pillars.
When the revenues from a growing number of taxes is used for non-environmental purposes, the problem only worsens.
Instead, we are calling for positive economic incentives, such as tax breaks for investments in modern, fuel-efficient equipment and government support for basic research into alternative fuels, new materials and so on.
A properly constructed emissions trading scheme could be part of this approach, but it must be global, voluntary and non-discriminatory.
The existing European ETS scheme that Giovanni referred to in his remarks is none of these.
An alternative economic measure……….
Aviation Environment
April 2008

17. Holistic approach imperative
Holistic approach imperative Encompassing all 4 pillars Clear role for governments Infrastructure upgrades essential Incentives for R&D Incentives for all industry players Penalties do nothing for innovation Taxation / charges take money away from solutions

18. Containing Aviation Emissions in the Short-term
Mike Barclay
Regional Vice President Asia Pacific
IATA