1. Economic Outlook Douglas, AZ

2. Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Lower levels of production  Job losses/rising unemployment  Less income  Lower levels of sales  Stock market declines  Loss of consumer and investor confidence  Financial crisis

3. Cochise College Center for Economic Research PeakTroughDuration (Months) February 1945October 19458 November 1948October 194911 July 1953May 195410 August 1957April 19588 April 1960February 196110 December 1969November 197011 November 1973March 197516 January 1980July 19806 July 1981November 198216 July 1990March 19918 March 2001November 20018 December 2007?18 (and counting)

4. Cochise College Center for Economic Research Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

5. Cochise College Center for Economic Research

6. Compared to same month previous year

7. Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Recovery likely in late 2009  Positive signs in recent weeks  Financial crisis will slow recovery and growth  Economic stimulus will have impact

8. How Cochise County and Douglas are impacted

9. Cochise College Center for Economic Research

10. Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year

11. Cochise College Center for Economic Research Compared to same month previous year

12. Cochise College Center for Economic Research

13.  Cochise County retail market in recession since November 2007  2009 (Jan-Mar): -9.4%  2008: -6.5%  2007: -1.3%  Douglas Retail Sales Tax Revenue  2009 (Jan-Mar): -2.0%  2008: 6.1%  2007: 2.2%

14. Cochise College Center for Economic Research Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year

15. Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Cochise County restaurant & bar sales in recession since October 2007  2009 (Jan-Mar): -2.9%  2008: 0.2%  2007: 0.1%  Douglas restaurant & bar sales in recession since at least July 2007  2009 (Jan-Mar): 0.4%  2008: -7.7%  2007: -2.9%

16. Cochise College Center for Economic Research  County retail sales at or near bottom—recovery likely in late 2009  City-level retail sales tax revenue helped along by tax rate increase  Stronger Peso may help  Restaurant & bar sales at or near bottom—recovery likely in mid-2009

17. Cochise College Center for Economic Research

18. * Jan-Apr only; seasonally adjusted

19. Cochise College Center for Economic Research Seasonally Adjusted

20. Cochise College Center for Economic Research Compared to same month previous year

21. Cochise College Center for Economic Research 12 months ending Apr 2009

22. Cochise College Center for Economic Research 12 months ending Apr 2009

23. Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Expect continued job losses & rising unemployment  Local area will fare better than, and begin to recover before, state and nation  ADOC data for Douglas will continue to overstate unemployment

24. Cochise College Center for Economic Research

25. Single Family Residential Building Permits

26. Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Cochise County  2009, 1 st Qtr: 66 (-45.5%)  2008: 404 (-14.4%)  2007: 472 (-47.6%)  2006: 900 (-18.8%)  Douglas  2009, Jan-Apr: 3 (-72.7%)  2008: 15 (-60.5%)  2007: 38 (-42.4%)  2006: 66 (-18.5%)

27. Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Cochise County  2009, Jan-Apr: 306 (-10.3%)  2008: 1,120 (-20.0%)  2007: 1,400 (-10.6%)  2006: 1,566 (-20.7%)  Douglas  2009, Jan-Apr: 25 (-21.9%)  2008: 102 (-3.8%)  2007: 106 (10.4%)  2006: 96 (5.5%)

28. Cochise College Center for Economic Research

29. * Jan-Apr only

30. Cochise College Center for Economic Research Cochise County  2009, Jan-Apr: $175,970 (-6.9%)  2008: $184,000 (-5.6%)  2007: $195,000 (1.3%)  2006: $192,569 (10.7%)  2005: $173,900 (24.3%)  2004: $ 139,900 Douglas  2009, Jan-Apr: $90,000 (4.0%)  2008: $89,750 (-0.3%)  2007: $90,000 (-1.1%)  2006: $91,000 (35.8%)  2005: $67,000 (21.8%)  2004: $55,000

31. Cochise College Center for Economic Research

32.  New residential construction likely at or near bottom (county & city)  Existing home sales approaching bottom  Home prices should continue to hold or decline modestly  Commercial construction has remained relatively strong, but no new projects

33. Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Most of the recession is probably over  There have been some signs that we’re at the bottom  The economic stimulus package will have an impact on the economy  Employment probably won’t improve until late 2009 or early 2010