1. Meteorology 485 Long Range Forecasting Friday, January 23, 2004

2. Long Range Guidance Numerical Models Numerical Models IRI – International Research Institute for Climate Prediction IRI – International Research Institute for Climate Prediction Columbia University (Palisades Campus) Columbia University (Palisades Campus) Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) with forced SST Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) with forced SST Four different AGCM are run with either one or two different SST’s Four different AGCM are run with either one or two different SST’s Each AGCM is run 10 times out to 9 months Each AGCM is run 10 times out to 9 months Components: CCM3.2, ECHAM3.6, NCEP-MRF9, NSIPP Components: CCM3.2, ECHAM3.6, NCEP-MRF9, NSIPP SST: Each ocean basin initialized separately (PSST, ASST) SST: Each ocean basin initialized separately (PSST, ASST) See: http://iri.columbia.edu/forecast/climate/fcst_dscrp.html/

3. Models IRI Outlook for Feb-Mar-Apr, 2004 IRI Outlook for Feb-Mar-Apr, 2004

4. Long Range Guidance Numerical Models Numerical Models Scripps – Scripps Institute of Oceanography : Experimental Climate Prediction Center Scripps – Scripps Institute of Oceanography : Experimental Climate Prediction Center Associated with the University of California at San Diego (La Jolla) Associated with the University of California at San Diego (La Jolla) Hybrid Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Spectral Model in collaboration with Max Planck Institute for Meteo Hybrid Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Spectral Model in collaboration with Max Planck Institute for Meteo Ocean GCM is HOPE2, better resolution of thermocline. Ocean GCM is HOPE2, better resolution of thermocline. See: http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/projects/GSM_HOME.html

5. Models Scripps Outlook for Feb-Mar-Apr Scripps Outlook for Feb-Mar-Apr

6. Long Range Guidance NASA – NASAS Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project NASA – NASAS Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project Greenbelt, MD Greenbelt, MD Fully coupled global ocean-atmosphere-land model Fully coupled global ocean-atmosphere-land model Ocean Model – Poseidon V4 (0.3deg x 0.6deg) with 27 layers and IC from optimal I Ocean Model – Poseidon V4 (0.3deg x 0.6deg) with 27 layers and IC from optimal I Atmosphere Model – NSIPPv1 (2degx2.5deg) with 34 layers Atmosphere Model – NSIPPv1 (2degx2.5deg) with 34 layers Land Model – Mosaic LSM Land Model – Mosaic LSM 19 member Ensemble for 12 month forecasts 19 member Ensemble for 12 month forecasts - Six members perturb ocean only - Six members perturb atmosphere only - Six members perturb oceans with a single perturbed atmos - One member uses initial atmosphere from CDAS reanalysis http://janus.gsfc.nasa.gov/~pegion/nsipp/

7. Models NSIPP NSIPP

8. Long Range Guidance CMB CMB Climate Modeling Branch (section within NCEP/EMC) in Washington, DC Climate Modeling Branch (section within NCEP/EMC) in Washington, DC Atmospheric General Circulation Model coupled with NCEP’s SST forecasts using their ENSO Forecast System. Atmospheric General Circulation Model coupled with NCEP’s SST forecasts using their ENSO Forecast System. 20 member ensemble with differing initial conditions to predict up to 6 months 20 member ensemble with differing initial conditions to predict up to 6 months http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/cmb/atm_forecast/ http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/cmb/atm_forecast/

9. Models CMB CMB

10. Coming Soon Statistical Long Range Forecast Models Statistical Long Range Forecast Models Government and Institutes Government and Institutes International Forecast Centers International Forecast Centers UKMET, ECMWF, CMC, Brazil, South Africa, Australia, Japan and Korea UKMET, ECMWF, CMC, Brazil, South Africa, Australia, Japan and Korea