1. Climate Data in the Real World John Gross Inventory & Monitoring, and Climate Change Response Program National Park Service Ft Collins, CO john_gross@nps.gov QED Boulder, CO 15 August 2013

2. Common uses for climate data from projections: Planning: Foundation Document, General Management Plans, Resource Strategies, CC scenario and other workshops Assessments: CC vulnerability, coastal & watershed assessments Specific resource projects: weed management, species of concern, hydrology, visitor services, infrastructure, visitor safety, revegetation (fire, construction, etc.) Education: Interpretation and outreach Needs range from very general trends to somewhat sophisticated. One size fits nobody.

4. What’s appropriate trend measurement, variance / confidence? What ‘ensemble’ or models to use? Some variables or metrics of interest ‘unpopular’ (e.g. wind)

5. CC Vulnerability Assessment of SE Forest Birds – Sillett, Hostettler et al. Land cover change, climate PRISM 800 m for 512 BBS routes Demographic models, fitted with PRISM Need 6-10 downscaled model projections Need Apr-June ‘aridity’ index –> temp & precip What GCMs to use (not use)? Does downscaling technique matter? How to estimate ‘aridity’? Other projects: species distribution modeling (pika, limber pine, bighorn sheep, vetch, etc.) VAs – many parks State of Parks Reports Infrastructure projects (many!)

6. Key needs: Area-specific evaluations of projections for core variables Summary of downscaling methods (strengths/weaknesses; best uses) Access to projection & ensemble summaries, and/or ability to specify & generate Guidance on identification, selection, and appropriate use of downscaled climate projections