1. Powerpoint Information: Dr. Barry Nocks Clemson University Center for Community Growth & Change

2. Oconee County Courthouse, Walhalla, SC Ram Cat Alley, Seneca, SC Mobile Home, Walhalla, SC Development Entry, Clemson, SC

4. Today: –1.22 Million People 62.2% Urban –527,274 Housing Units 67.3% Single Family 2025: –1.56 Million People* 340,000 more people, or 28% growth rate 54.8% of growth in Greenville and Spartanburg Counties –659,412 Housing Units *according to SC Budget & Control Board

5. Additional Needs for 2025:  6.75 million square feet (or 155 acres)  67 (100,000 s.f.) neighborhood strip centers, or  5.5 Haywood Malls Source: Clemson University Center for Real Estate Development Haywood Mall Vicinity - Greenville

6. Additional Needs for 2025 (continued) 6.1 million square feet (or 140 acres)  6 (40-story) office buildings at 1 million square feet each, or  2x the amount of office space currently in downtown Greenville Downtown Greenville

7. Additional Needs for 2025:  27.1 million square feet (or 622 acres)  11-12 new BMW plants  Equivalent in size to 135 Wal-Mart Supercenters (averaging 200,000 sf) BMW Manufacturing Plant – Greer Oconee County Commerce Center

8. Additional Needs for 2025:  7,111 Hotel Rooms = 71 new hotels (assuming average of 100 rooms per hotel) Poinsett Hotel - Greenville Holiday Inn Express - Anderson

9.  Economic diversification  Jobs – growth in numbers and quality  Tax base – support of quality services  Cultural growth & diversity  We seek to maintain quality of life while encouraging growth

10. Greenville- Spartanburg is 5 th most sprawling area ( Considering factors such as: miles driven, traffic delays, air pollution, proximity of homes to jobs/ schools, population density) Sprawl Rankings 1. Riverside-San Bernardino (LA), CA 2. Greensboro-Winston- Salem-High Point, NC 3. Raleigh-Durham, NC 4. Atlanta, GA 5. Greenville- Spartanburg, SC

12. > 800 400 - 800 200 - 400 100 - 200 0 - 100 Virginia Study (D. Ware, et al., USDA Forest Service,1998) *1999 population estimates by CACI International, Inc. based on 1990 US Census Population Density Along the I-85 Corridor # people per square mile

13. Development Impacts  Land Use  Transportation  Infrastructure  Parks and Open Space  Education  Public Safety Direct costs of serving new residents Based on population projections from the SC Office of Research and Statistics

15. The Upstate is projected to grow by almost 30% by 2025 and by another 30% by 2050 This will have a significant impact on the transportation infrastructure in the Upstate, with unknown effect of gas supply and mass transit Construction of new infrastructure as well as improving existing highways will be a challenge Meeting EPA pollution standards will be a challenge with growth

16. Total Statewide Transportation needs through 2022 identified at $56.87 billion Road related needs: $47.57 billion Upstate needs at 30% of total: $14.27 billion Source: SCDOT Multimodal Transportation Plan, 2002

17. Parks & Recreation

18. Recreation Center- Anderson, SC Parks provide refuge from the chaos of daily life –Passive and active recreation –Trails, athletic facilities, play structures, pools, sport courts, and wildlife areas –Reduction of urban heat islands –Public gathering space –Leisure and community facilities With the projected increase of 338,538 people by 2025, demand for parks and recreational space is sure to increase Only active parks included here

19. Projected costs are rough estimates –  Actual costs depend on topography, amenities, site improvements, land acquisition, construction, and selected materials Estimates are an average of construction costs for recently constructed comparable parks Park Amenities Are Expensive!!  Example: Play Structure = $35,000 Source: City of Greenville Park and Recreation Dept.

20. Abbeville County- $1.8 Million (18 acres)  2 Mini Parks-$213,000 (2 acres)  2 Neighborhood Parks-$602,000 (8 acres)  0.4 Community Parks-$984,000 (8 acres) Anderson County-$17.7 Million (166 acres)  18 Mini Parks-$2.1 Million (18 acres)  15 Neighborhood Parks-$5.9 Million (74 acres)  4 Community Parks-$9.7 Million (74 acres) Greenville County-$57.4 Million (536 acres)  60 Mini Parks-$6.8 Million (60 acres)  48 Neighborhood Parks- $19.2 Million (238 acres)  12 Community Parks-$31.4 Million (238 acres) Pickens County- $20.9 Million (195 acres)  22 Mini Parks-$2.5 Million (22 acres)  17 Neighborhood Parks-$6.9 Million (87 acres)  4 Community Parks-$11.5 Million (87 acres) Walhalla Soccer Field Impacts on Selected Counties 1 Costs adjusted 3% annually for inflation

22. Current Facilities PrimaryElementary Middle School High School Career & TechnicalPrivateTotal Abbeville05531115 Anderson02610701356 Cherokee011421321 Greenville2501814443131 Greenwood012540425 Laurens011620423 Oconee011541425 Pickens0155411439 Spartanbur g140161001380 Union06330113 Total318777538100428 Source: SC Department of Education

23. Estimated Additional Needs Through 2025 Additional Students 1 Additional Square Footage 1 Additional Classrooms 2 Additional Teachers 3 K - 533,4463,010,1401,3941,520 Middle School13,8591,663,080577693 High School13,1281,969,200547691 Total60,4336,642,4202,5182,904 1 Assumes that the current distribution of population across age groups will remain consistent to 2025. 2 90 ft 2 /K-5 Student, 120 ft 2 /Middle Student, 150 ft 2 /High (Source: Edwards, Mary. 2003. “Community Guide to Development Impact Analysis.” University of Wisconsin) 3 24 students/K-5 Classroom, 25/Middle, 26/High (Source: Burchell and Listokin. 1994. “Development Impact Assessment Handbook.”) 4 1 teacher/22 K-5 students, 1/20 Middle, 1/19 High (Source: Burchell and Listokin. 1994. “Development Impact Assessment Handbook.”)

24. Comparisons  Additional Elementary School requirements equivalent to the construction of:  30 additional Clemson Elementary Schools (46 classrooms), or  68 additional Walhalla Elementary Schools (approx. 500 students) Clemson Elementary

25. Comparisons  Additional Middle School requirements equivalent to the construction of:  15 Additional Greer Middle Schools (921 students), or  22 Additional Brewer Middle Schools (618 students) Brewer Middle School, Greenwood

26. Comparisons  Additional High School requirements equivalent to the construction of:  8 Additional Easley High Schools (68 classrooms); or  12 Additional Greenville High Schools (46 classrooms) Easley High School

27. Additional Teachers  Future growth in the Upstate by 2025 is estimated to generate a need for nearly 3,000 additional teachers at estimated additional annual salary costs of nearly $199 million 1 1 Costs adjusted to 2025 dollars

28. Construction Costs  Future growth in the Upstate is estimated to generate a need for $735– $919 Million 1 in new or expanded facilities construction by 2025, not including replacements to existing facilities Walhalla High School and Football Field 1 Costs adjusted 3% annually for inflation

29. We can learn from other experiences, particularly from areas that are similar in scale and political outlook We do have choices—not to act is an invitation to continued movement to Charlotte and Atlanta

30. Powerpoint Information: Dr. Barry Nocks Clemson University Center for Community Growth & Change