1. AQUACULTURAL SITUATION AND OUTLOOK “TEACH A PERSON HOW TO FISH -- HE CAN SURVIVE” “TEACH A PERSON HOW TO GROW FISH -- HE CAN MAKE A LIVING” ?? Jerry R. Crews Auburn University SRAOC SEPTEMBER 2002

2. WORLD FISHERIES 2000 FAO

3. FISHERY EXPORTER 2000 FAO

4. FISHERY IMPORTER 2000 FAO

5. WORLD SEAFOOD SUPPLY 2000 FAO

6. WORLD CAPTURE FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION NMFS

7. WORLD AQUACULTURE 2000 FAO

8. U. S. SEAFOOD SUPPLY 1999 NMFS

9. U. S. SEAFOOD SUPPLY 2001 NMFS

10. FISH AND SHELLFISH 1970 - 2001 USDA

11. U. S. SEAFOOD CONSUMPTION NFI

12. 2001 U. S. SEAFOOD CONSUMPTION NFI First Time Tilapia Made “Top Ten”

13. U.S. Aquaculture Production

14. Production States NORTH CENTRAL NORTHEASTERN SOUTHERN WESTERN TROPICAL & SUBTROPICAL Perch Striped Bass Tilapia Catfish Striped Bass Tilapia Baitfish Trout Salmon Shellfish Striped Bass Tilapia Ornamental, Food and Shellfish Salmon Shellfish Striped Bass

15. Aquaculture Sales

16. U. S. AQUACULTURE VALUE 2000 NMFS

17. Sales by Aquaculture Category Food fish - 70% Mollusks - 9% Ornamental fish - 7% Baitfish - 4% Crustaceans - 4% Sport/Game - 1% Other animal aqua. - 5%

18. U. S. AQUACULTURE VALUE - 2000 NMFS

19. U.S. Catfish Industry

20. CONSISTENT PRODUCT

21. CATFISH CONSUMPTION

22. CATFISH SALES 2001 USDA

23. CATFISH ACREAGE AND NUMBER OF FARMS USDA

24. CATFISH ACREAGE AND OPERATION SIZE USDA

25. CATFISH PRODUCTION AND INTENSITY USDA

26. CATFISH PRICES 1970 - 2002 USDA and Crews

27. CATFISH PRICES 1970 - 2002 USDA (82-84 real base)

28. There is a strong seasonal aspect to pricing as seen in the 5, 10 and 25-year average price received curves above. However, the norm was not followed in 2001. 2001 25 YR AVG 10 YR AVG 5 YR AVG

29. Catfish Price Paid to Producer 2001 price 2000 price $.10 + per lb less than 2000 = -14%

30. Catfish Price Paid to Producer 2001 price 2002 price $.11 + per lb less than 2001 = -17%

31. Catfish Product Form Sales The catfish fillet product form is preferred over other product forms (whole fish, steaks, nuggets).

32. Fresh and Frozen Catfish Products Over the last 15 years, there has been an ever widening production difference between frozen and fresh catfish products. Frozen catfish products are in higher demand now than ever before with 60% of all catfish products being frozen. Source: USDA Economics and Statistics System, NASS

33. U.S. Catfish Fillet Processing Over the years, frozen catfish fillets had increasingly demanded over fresh fillets.

34. Imports of “Catfish” to U.S. 119% 139% 149%

38. Industry Response to Imports Legislation –“Country of Origin” labeling - MS, LA ? –Removal of Channel Catfish images on import packaging - NO –Seek to have ‘Catfish’ name removed from non- Ictalurid fish species - 1 YEAR BAN, U.S. Advertising –Concentrate US safety/health standards - CHEMICALS ? –Imports are trying to mislead consumers - TCI Legal –Anti-dumping case-CFA PASS THE FIRST HURDLE Shrimp/Crawfish Industry - EVALUATING

39. U.S. OR VIETNAM?

40. What’s Causing Low Catfish Prices? Increased Vietnamese frozen fillet imports Economic uncertainty Stagnant per capita consumption On-farm inventories up Processing capacity (up)

41. U.S. CATFISH INVENTORY JULY 1, 2002 vs 2001

42. CATFISH FEED SALES (32 % PROTEIN) TCI and Crews

43. U.S. Catfish Round Weight Processed * Round-weight process has be flat for the last 3 years. Source: USDA Economics and Statistics System, NASS and Crews 4 %

44. Total Producer Catfish Sales Total 2002 producer sales (processed) down $35 million from 2001, down $94million from 2000. Source: USDA Economics and Statistics System, NASS and Crews - 9 %

45. Total Processor Catfish Sales Total 2002 processor sales down $21 million from 2001. Source: USDA Economics and Statistics System, NASS and Crews - 3 %

46. US Catfish Fillet Price that the Processor Receives 2000 - 2002 FRESH FROZEN

47. PRODUCER’S EFFICIENCY Processors requiring increased fish size 1980’s => 1.00 - 1.25 lb average weight 1990’s => 1.25 - 1.50 lb average weight 2000’s => 1.50 - 2.00+ lb average weight Larger fish require longer production cycle From 24 months to 36 months (from spawn to skillet) –increased production risks –increases production costs

48. Growing Larger Catfish 7,000 Stocking Rate; 6 in Fingerlings

49. CATFISH FEED PRICES (32 % PROTEIN) MS

50. 75 cents/lb Fish Price 55 cents/lb 60 cents/lb 65 cents/lb 70 cents/lb

51. Lower Prices and Net Returns The cost to produce U.S. farm-raised catfish is in the range of $0.60 - $0.75 / lb At the Present Price of $0.50 - 0.60 / lb: –Less efficient farmers will: Lose money May not cover cash and capital costs Go “belly up” –More efficient farmers will: Receive a lower profit May not cover all variable costs Can stay in business in the short-run

52. GROWTH IN THE U. S. EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, AT A SLOWER PACE BECOMING MORE EFFICIENT ‘PRODUCERS AND PROCESSORS ALLIANCE/CONSOLIDATION ‘PRODUCER/PROCESSOR/FEEDMILL/GENETICS U. S. HAS COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE ‘INDEPENDENT PRODUCERS/PROCESSORS ‘FEED GRAINS ‘INFRASTRUCTURE ‘MARKETS _ONE BILLION POUNDS BY 2010 ??????????

53. AQUACULTURAL SITUATION AND OUTLOOK “TEACH A PERSON HOW TO FISH -- HE CAN SURVIVE” “TEACH A PERSON HOW TO GROW FISH -- HE CAN MAKE A LIVING” ?? Jerry R. Crews Auburn University SRAOC SEPTEMBER 2002