1. Mike Treadaway Director of Research Fischer Family Trust Using FFT Live Secondary Schools

2. Contents Data Landscape Change and Continuity? FFT Live Self-Evaluation Estimates - Particularly KS4 Data Literacy – Applying Key Principles Other Reports Student Explorer Exports

3. Data Landscape 20022003200420052006200720082009201020112012 Value-Added Contextual Value-Added 3 Year Summaries Estimates Also: Floor Standards Expected Progress FFT DfE

4. Whether or not to Contextualise? Type of AnalysisAdvantagesDisadvantages Raw Outcomes e.g. %L4+Provides a view as to whether pupils are attaining the knowledge and skills needed for their next stage of education? When used to compare schools, depends strongly upon attainment of the school’s intake. Value-AddedEnables a focus upon progress irrespective of context e.g. How well are our FSM pupils doing compared to our non- FSM pupils? Comparing value-added outcomes for schools with different contexts and make- up of intakes can be misleading. Contextual Value-AddedAims to take account of factors which are outside the school’s control and which, from analysing national data, can be shown to influence progress. If used to look ahead (estimates) then danger of ‘self-fulfilling prophecy’ for pupils in groups who currently under-perform nationally.

5. Differences – VA and CVA Compare PA (Value-added) and SX (Contextual Value-Added) outcomes for KS2->4 in 2009/10. – Use KS4 Capped Points Score as outcome measure. – Look at how many change significant state. – Analyses by grouping schools in different socio-economic contexts. SchoolVA compared to CVA ContextBetterWorse Q130%2% Q29%11% Q37%17% Q414%13% SchoolChange in VA Score ContextAvgMinMax Q1+7-19+25 Q2-53+38 Q3-3-62+32 Q40-54+34 To get some idea of the likely change for your school, compare PA and SX value-added outcomes on FFT Live or in FFT Self-Evaluation reports. In Lambeth, most schools have VA better than CVA – this is mainly related to the progress of ethnic minority pupils.

6. Recommendations For Self-Evaluation: VA (FFT PA model) and CVA (FFT SX model) are both important Contextual Value-Added is probably still the best starting point For schools with high % of ethnic minority pupils (other than Black Caribbean) CVA is likely to be LOWER than VA If CVA is good, particularly in a school serving a socio-economically disadvantaged area, VA provide a view as to whether pupils are making good progress irrespective of context For Estimates: Thinking about range is probably the most important principle PA model probably the best starting point, but need to take account of: What the school has achieved in previous years Impact of pupil characteristics and school context Other factors, including parental support, school interventions..... And, in the end, what matters most to each pupil is the knowledge and skills they take with them to the next stage of their education!

7. Expected Progress DfE Approach – Whole Levels, Subject Specific Input – So, for example, 68% L4 in Mathematics at KS2 attained grade C or higher at KS4 in 2011 FFT Approach – Differentiate within levels (using Fine Grades) – Take into account prior attainment in English and Mathematics DfE Approach – Whole Levels, Subject Specific Input – So, for example, 68% L4 in Mathematics at KS2 attained grade C or higher at KS4 in 2011 FFT Approach – Differentiate within levels (using Fine Grades) – Take into account prior attainment in English and Mathematics KS2 MathsKS4 C+ Maths 4C47% 4B69% 4A86% KS2 EnglishC+ KS4 Maths 350% 4C61% 4B69% 4A75% 580%

8. FFT Live Includes: Latest updates Future releases Help Files Includes: Latest updates Future releases Help Files

9. SETS Key Changes for 2011/12 – Default changed to PA (Prior Attainment) – SX (Contextual VA) continues to be available – Options to SORT and FILTER (Pupil Groups) available on range of reports – Default layout for KS4 and KS5 Subject Summary VA Simplified Key Changes for 2011/12 – Default changed to PA (Prior Attainment) – SX (Contextual VA) continues to be available – Options to SORT and FILTER (Pupil Groups) available on range of reports – Default layout for KS4 and KS5 Subject Summary VA Simplified

10. Self-Evaluation Significant Areas Grid Range of pupil groups and indicators KS2->3, KS2->4, KS3->4 3 Year summary, Overall + Trends Significant Areas Grid Range of pupil groups and indicators KS2->3, KS2->4, KS3->4 3 Year summary, Overall + Trends Significant Areas Detail Shows actual attainment and VA/CVA scores for each year Can be accessed by clicking on Significant Areas grid Significant Areas Detail Shows actual attainment and VA/CVA scores for each year Can be accessed by clicking on Significant Areas grid Pupil Value-Added Overall Indicators KS2->3, KS2->4, KS3->4 Individual Subjects KS2->4, KS3->4, KS4->5 VA or CVA (KS3 and KS4 outcomes) Pupil Value-Added Overall Indicators KS2->3, KS2->4, KS3->4 Individual Subjects KS2->4, KS3->4, KS4->5 VA or CVA (KS3 and KS4 outcomes) Subject Summary Reports KS4 and KS5 Individual Subjects Summary Report (most users find this is sufficient) Detail Report Subject Summary Reports KS4 and KS5 Individual Subjects Summary Report (most users find this is sufficient) Detail Report

11. Estimates School Summary Estimates Range of Indicators and Pupil Groups A – PA 50 th Percentile; B – SE 50 th Percentile, D – SE 25 th Percentile; S – School Previous School Summary Estimates Range of Indicators and Pupil Groups A – PA 50 th Percentile; B – SE 50 th Percentile, D – SE 25 th Percentile; S – School Previous School Subject Estimates Core Subjects including Expected Progress for English and Mathematics Outcomes for all grades (A* to G) Some pupil groupings available School Subject Estimates Core Subjects including Expected Progress for English and Mathematics Outcomes for all grades (A* to G) Some pupil groupings available Pupil Summary Estimates Types A, B, D Range of indicators (e.g. 5A*C, 5A*CEM, Points) Pupil Summary Estimates Types A, B, D Range of indicators (e.g. 5A*C, 5A*CEM, Points) Pupil Subject Estimates Show likelihood of attaining all grades (A* to G or A* to E) Also provides option to show ‘most likely grade’ (GM) Pupil Subject Estimates Show likelihood of attaining all grades (A* to G or A* to E) Also provides option to show ‘most likely grade’ (GM)

12. Using Estimates Estimate -> Prediction -> Target Consider option of range - realistic and ambitious Don’t add up ‘estimated levels / grades’ Estimate -> Prediction -> Target Consider option of range - realistic and ambitious Don’t add up ‘estimated levels / grades’ Two basic approaches Start with pupil data Take into account other factors Add up and compare with overall estimates Revise as necessary to arrive at overall targets Start with pupil data Take into account other factors Add up and compare with overall estimates Revise as necessary to arrive at overall targets Use overall estimates and evaluation of past performance to draft overall targets Use ‘RANK’ option in FFT School Subject Estimates to set overall figure at your overall targets Click on link to pupil estimates Use overall estimates and evaluation of past performance to draft overall targets Use ‘RANK’ option in FFT School Subject Estimates to set overall figure at your overall targets Click on link to pupil estimates

13. Adding up estimated levels – why not? Consider a group of 50 ‘identical’ pupils They all have the same estimates: Consider a group of 50 ‘identical’ pupils They all have the same estimates: GFEDCBAA*GMHGMGA 0% 10%20%40%20%10%0%C30%B If we add up the ‘GM’ grades EDCBA 005000 If we average the ‘chances’ for each level and multiply by number of pupils EDCBA 10%20%40%20%10% 51020105 Note : Adding up predicted or target grades is fine – assuming that they are not simply just using unmoderated estimates!

14. KS4 Estimates GM – Grade likely to be achieved by 50% of more ‘similar’ students nationally HGM – likelihood of attaining above GM GA – one grade above GM EP – Expected Progress from KS2->KS4 (English and Mathematics only) GM – Grade likely to be achieved by 50% of more ‘similar’ students nationally HGM – likelihood of attaining above GM GA – one grade above GM EP – Expected Progress from KS2->KS4 (English and Mathematics only) Default Extended

15. Other Reports Export Section Provides additional data (e.g. UPN, FFT_ID) which is not available on SETS reports Removes formatting and colours, so easier to import into other systems Export Section Provides additional data (e.g. UPN, FFT_ID) which is not available on SETS reports Removes formatting and colours, so easier to import into other systems Student Explorer Select students by range of characteristics Look at individual pupil history Developments: FSM as pre-set group (can currently select using drop-down menus) Pilot estimate report which takes into account factors such as EAL and when arrived in UK Student Explorer Select students by range of characteristics Look at individual pupil history Developments: FSM as pre-set group (can currently select using drop-down menus) Pilot estimate report which takes into account factors such as EAL and when arrived in UK

16. Questions English Baccalaureate Currently, FFT Live includes: EXPORT report which shows school, LA and National data for a range of indicators (EBac and our ‘best guess’ at what is likely to be the case for Basics indicators) DEVELOPMENT section has EBac estimates – based upon those who actually sat subjects in all 5 EBac areas, so not consistent with KS4 Subject Estimates Should we do anything further? EBac value-added – or is this covered by looking at the relevant subjects in KS4 Subject Value-Added? What about Estimates – are they needed? Student Explorer Ability to select by FSM (current or ever) will soon be included Are there any other important pupil characteristics which would be useful to have easily available on the main menu? Any other suggestions for development?