1. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Political Socialization and Public Opinion AP Government

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4. AP Focus Should know the primary agents of political socialization. Know the correlation between political preference and demographic groups. Need to be able to analyze data. Know what is required to conduct a valid opinion poll Identify factors influencing mistrust in government Know how public opinion polls affect political decisions

5. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman AP Focus Many students want to reject what they disagree with rather than seeking to understand why another person or group believes the way they do. The goal of political science is to explain behavior being observed rather than to serve as an advocate for a particular viewpoint.

6. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman American Political Culture Key definitions Political culture – set of widely shared political beliefs and values Values and beliefs – deep-rooted ideals that shape an individual’s perception of political issues Public opinion – attitudes about institutions, leaders, political issues, and events.

7. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman American Political Culture Importance British political writer G.K. Chesterton observed that “America is the only nation in the world that is founded on a creed.” Creed = statement of belief D of I America’s political culture provides broad consensus that shapes and limits the political debate

8. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman American Political Culture Core Values Liberty/freedom Freedom of speech and religions are fundamental People are free to live their lives with minimal government interference = limited govt. Equality Political equality – equal voting rights Legal equality – equal treatment before the law Equality of opportunity – everyone has a chance to succeed

9. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman American Political Culture Core values (cont.) Individualism Indiv. Responsible for their own decisions and well-being Democracy Govt. based on the consent of the governed = pop. sovereignty majority rule vs. minority rights

10. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Test Tip Common multiple choice question asks you to identify which is NOT a core American value It is important to remember that, while America does support economic opportunity, it does not support economic equality Equality of opportunity vs. equality of outcome

11. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman American Political Culture Mistrust of Government Since the 1950s, Americans has become less trusting of their political leaders and institutions Has been linked to a corresponding decline in political efficacy = belief that one’s political participation really matters

12. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman How public opinion is formed Political socialization = the process by which individuals acquire political beliefs and attitudes. Most important early sources of political socialization 1.Family 2.School

13. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Family and social environment Education as a source of political socialization Education introduces individuals to ideas outside the home Peers and peer group influence As people interact with others opinions are formed Opinion leaders

14. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Test Tip Every released test I have seen asks at least one question asking you to define political socialization or recognize that family plays an important role in passing political values from one generation to the nest

15. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Impact of the media The media plays a significant role in political socialization. How topics are presented and which topics are presented have a major impact in opinion formations.

16. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Influence of political events Lifecycle effect – older Americans tend to be more conservative Generational effect – political event that produces a long- lasting impact on opinion

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18. Opinion formation Political ideology, party affiliation, and candidate choice are impacted by certain demographic and socioeconomic factors.

19. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Who are we?

20. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Exit polling data http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/result s/race/president#exit-polls http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/result s/race/president#exit-polls

21. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Political preference and voting behavior Education For years higher education appeared to correlate with voting republican In recent years the correlation has weakened Those with postgraduate degree have become increasingly democratic Those with only a high school degree have become more Republican

22. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Political preference and voting behavior Economic Status Those with low incomes tend to favor government action to benefit the poor – Dem. Those with high incomes tend to oppose government intervention in the economy or to support it only when it benefits business – Repub. Some research indicates this is changing

23. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Political preference and voting behavior Religious influence Level of devoutness Those who attend church regularly are more Repub. African Americans are the exception Evangelicals make up 23% or the electorate and vote overwhelmingly Repub.

24. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Political preference and voting behavior Religious influence: denomination Jewish community more likely to vote Dem. Atheist – Dem. No religious affiliation – liberal on cultural issues, mixed on the economy

25. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Race and ethnicity Minorities favor Dems. African Americans overwhelmingly Latinos 2 to1 – Dem. Cuban Americans strongly Repub. Asian Americans support Dem. narrowly American Muslims of Middle Eastern descent gave G. Bush majority support in 2000 but went heavily for Kerry in 2004 on the basis of civil liberty concerns Political preference and voting behavior

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27. Gender gap = difference between the percentage of women who vote for a particular candidate and the percentage of men Since 1980 women are more likely to support Dem. while men are more likely to support Repubs. 7 to 12 points in presidential elections Political preference and voting behavior

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29. Reasons for the gender gap Increase in number of women working Feminism Concerns over abortion rights and social issues Decline in marriage rates and increase in divorce has depressed income for women Gender gap rises with education and economic status Changes in men Political preference and voting behavior

30. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Geographic region Northeast and West Coast = Dems. South, Great Plains, Rocky Mountains = Repub. Midwest tends to split (and sometimes decides elections) Cities = Dem. Rural = Repub. Political preference and voting behavior

31. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Red States and Blue States

32. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman The most important influences Party identification Strongest determination of an individual’s vote If a person identifies with a party, there is a greater likelihood they will vote and support the candidates of their party

33. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Political Ideology Importance Political ideology = cohesive set of beliefs about politics, public police, and the role of government Americans pick ideological label of conservative over liberal. In 2008, 36% were conservatives, 38% were moderates, and 26% were liberals. About 20% of the population vote on ideological lines

34. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Political Ideology Liberal ideology Supports Political and social reform Government regulation of the economy Expanded programs for the poor, minorities, and women National health care Abortion rights Opposes Increase military spending Committing troops to foreign wars School prayer

35. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Political Ideology Conservative Ideology Supports Expansion of military power Free-market solutions to economic problems Less government regulation of business School prayer Opposes Expensive federal social welfare programs Abortion rights National health care

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37. 37 Liberals and Conservatives Differ on Spending for Safety Net and Environmental Issues

38. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Other important influences Perception of the Candidate – particularly character and trustworthiness Issue preferences – less important than other factors – where a candidate stands on issues Economic issues tend to be most important Some vote based on their economic interests others vote based on the economy as a whole

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41. The Science of Public Opinion Measurement Brief History of Poling Straw polling Political leaders have a long history of trying to gauge public opinion Early attempts include counting the size of a crowd, noting the level of audience applause, asking random people on the street to express their opinion Name comes from the practice of tossing straw into the air to see which way the wind blowing

42. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman The Science of the Public Opinion Measurement Brief History (cont.) The Literary Digest 1936, mailed postcards to 10 million people asking if they supported FDR or Alf Landon The overwhelming majority of the 2 million respondents supported Alf. FDR won every state except Maine and Vermont Relied on a faulty sample that used telephone directories and automobile registration rosters. Failed to consider that million of working-class could not afford automobiles or telephones in 1936 Poll excluded FDR’s working-class supporters while oversampling wealthy Americans

43. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman The Science of the Public Opinion Measurement Brief History (cont.) Scientific sampling George Gallup and Elmo Roper developed the technique of scientific sampling Today, over 1,000 polling organizations attempt to measure public preference on everything from soft drinks to television shows. Led by the Gallup Organization and the Pew Research Center for People and the Press As many of 200 organizations focus on polling the American Public’s political preferences

44. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman The Science of the Public Opinion Measurement Steps in scientific polling 1.Define the universe or population to be surveyed 2.Construct a sample or representative slice of the population. Most polls use random sampling in which every member of the population being studied must have an equal chance of being sampled. If random sampling works it should represent the whole population

45. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman The Science of the Public Opinion Measurement Steps in scientific polling (cont.) 3. Construct carefully designed survey questions that avoid bias. 4. Conduct the poll by using either telephone or face-to-face interviewing procedures. 5.Analyze and report the data.

46. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Polls and Democracy A tool for democracy Supporters argue that polling contributes to the democratic process by providing a way for the public to express their opinions. Supporters also point out that polling enables political leaders to understand and implement public preferences on key issues.

47. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Polls and Democracy A tool for the timid and manipulative Critics argue that polls transform leaders into followers. If polls were available in 1787, the Framers might have followed public opinion by revising the Articles of Confederation Polls can be used to manipulate public opinion. Bandwagon effect occurs when polling results influence people to support candidates and issues that appear to be popular.

48. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Longman Polls and Democracy Caution for the democratic process Democratic process is based on informed citizenry Public opinion polls show an alarming lack of public knowledge A national poll found that 74% of respondents could name the Three Stooges, while just 42% could identify the three branches of government 25% could name their two senators Less than 50% could identify the Bill of Rights