1. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 1 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 1 Large Lake Ecosystem Modeling and Prediction Craig A. Stow

2. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 2 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level 2 Ecology Team Models chemical and biological processes to understand and predict the effects of natural perturbations and human activities, including alternative management scenarios, on the ecosystem Ice Hydrology Ecology Meteorology/ Climatology Hydrodynamics Integrated Ecological Modeling Framework

3. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 3 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level 3 Key Scientific Questions Can we forecast ecosystem services valued by stakeholders? Water quality (drinking, recreational, aesthetic) Healthy, sustainable fishery Resilience

4. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 4 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level 4 What are the appropriate spatial and temporal forecast scales? Scenario based Trajectory based? Real-time? Key Scientific Questions Days Months Seasons Years Weeks GlobalRegionalLocal Larval PathwaysTrajectory-Based Forecasts Beach Advisories Hypoxia Formation Habitat Migration Disease Transmission Model-Based Ecosystem Forecasts Invasive Spread Species Abundance Resource Recovery Exposure Risk Ecosystem Change Climate Impacts Spill Response Spatial Extent of Forecast Frequency of Forecast Scenario-Based Forecasts

5. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 5 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level 5 Rigorous skill assessment essential Quantified uncertainty is information How accurate (precision + bias) do models need to be for decision-makers? Key Scientific Questions

6. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 6 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level 6 What is the appropriate model complexity for accurate forecasts? Simple Complex Ensemble

7. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 7 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level 7 Data Process understanding Uncertainty propagation (physical + chemistry + biology) “Social-ecological systems are complex adaptive systems; understanding how their component parts function doesn’t mean you can predict their overall behavior” What factors limit our ability to accurately predict ecological phenomena in the lakes?

8. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 8 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 8 Products Biophysical model of Yellow Perch recruitment Muskegon River mega-model Food web models (Lake Erie, Lake Michigan, Northern Gulf of Mexico) Growth Rate Potential models (habitat quality models) Wind farm siting decision support model Gulf of Mexico Brown Shrimp model Saginaw Bay Bayesian Probability Network (Saginaw Bayes)

9. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 9 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level 9 Gulf of Mexico Brown Shrimp Model Bayesian Bioenergetic Individual-based Used by Louisiana Office of Coastal Protection and Restoration and the Louisiana Coastal Authority Science Board to evaluate Mississippi River diversion effects on shrimp growth

10. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 10 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level 10 Bayesian Probability Network (Saginaw Bayes) Data Process understanding Uncertainty propagation (physical + chemistry + biology) “Social-ecological systems are complex adaptive systems; understanding how their component parts function doesn’t mean you can predict their overall behavior”

11. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 11 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level 11 Partners and Stakeholders LA Office of Coastal Protection and Restoration LCA Science Board Louisiana State University University of Maryland Oregon State University University of Michigan MI Dept. of Natural Res. and Env. Lake Huron Technical Committee Lake Huron Binational Partnership Wayne State University Eastern Michigan University Michigan State University Duke University Nature Conservancy

12. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 12 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 12 Future Directions Continuity Adaptive Updating Coupling/ Integration Uncertainty Quantification, Propagation

13. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 13 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level 13 Questions? 