1. MPR 2008:2 03.06.2008

2. 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank

3. 2. CPI with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change Sources: Statistcs Sweden and the Riksbank

4. 3. GDP with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change, seasonal adjusted Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

5. 4. Oil price, Brent crude USD per barrel Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank

6. 5. Nominal and real oil price USD per barrel (Brent) Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbanken

7. 6. Commodity prices USD, annual percentage change Source: The Economist.

8. 7. CPI and GDP in OECD Annual percentage change Sources: OECD and the Riksbank

9. 8. Unit labour costs for the economy as a whole Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

10. 9. Actual and trend productivity growth in the economy as a whole Annual percentage change, seasonal adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

11. 10. Food, energy and mortgage costs in the CPI Annual percentage change Source: Statistics Sweden Note. The weight of the respective components is given in brackets.

12. 11. CPI, outcome and forecasts on different occasions Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

13. 12. Food prices at different stages Annual percentage change Sources: The Economist and Statistics Sweden.

14. 13. CPI and CPIF Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

15. 14. Labour force and number of employed Thousands, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

16. 15. Percentage of unemployed Percentage of the labour force, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

17. 16. GDP Quarterly changes in per cent calculated as an annual rate, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

18. 17. Growth in the World and Sweden Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data Sources: IMF, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank. Note. Broken lines and striped bars represent the Riksbank's forecast.

19. 18. GDP for the United States and the euro area Quarterly changes in per cent calculated as an annual rate, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Eurostat, Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Riksbank

20. 19. Exports Quarterly changes in per cent calculated as an annual rate Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

21. 20. TCW exchange rate Index, 18.11.92 = 100 Source: The Riksbank

22. 21. Interest rates in Sweden Per cent Sources: Ecowin and the Riksbank

23. 22. Households' disposable incomes, consumption and saving ratio Annual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of disposable income Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

24. 23. Investments Quarterly changes in per cent calculated as an annual rate Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

25. 24. Public sector consumption expenditure Annual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of GDP Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

26. 25. General government net lending Proportion of GDP, per cent Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Striped bars represent the Riksbank's forecast.

27. 26. Repo rate forecasts on different occasions Per cent Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

28. Table 1. Inflation, annual average Annual percentage change, () = Latest MPU Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank 2007 2008 2009 2010 CPI 2.2 3.9 (3.5) 3.5 (2.8) 2.3 (2.3) CPIX 1.2 3.0 (2.6) 2.8 (2.4) 2.0 (2.0) CPIX excl. energy 1.5 2.0 (2.0) 2.2 (2.2) 2.2 (2.1) CPI with fixed interest rate 1.5 3.1 (2.8) 3.1 (2.6) 2.3 (2.2)

29. Table 2. Inflation. 12-month rate Annual percentage change. () = Latest MPU Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

30. Table 3. Key figures Annual percentage change. unless otherwise specified. ( ) = Latest MPU Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, National Mediation Office and the Riksbank

31. Table 4. Repo rate forecast Per cent. quarterly average values. ( ) = Latest MPU Source: The Riksbank Q 2 2008 Q 3 2008 Q 4 2008 Q 3 2009 Q 3 2010 Q3 2011 Repo rate 4.25 4.5 (4.3) 4.8 (4.3) 4.9 (4.3) 4.6 (4.3) 4.4

32. 27. Repo rate assumptions Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

33. 28. CPI Annual percentage change Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

34. 29. GDP Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Black lines show average GDP growth in the periods 1981-2007 and 1998-2007; 2, 3 and 3.2 per cent.

35. 30. TCW exchange rate Index, 18 November 1992 = 100 Source. The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

36. 31. Real repo rate Per cent, quarterly averages Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

37. 32. Production gap (GDP) Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

38. 33. Labour market gap Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

39. 34. Number of hours worked Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

40. 35. Employment rate Per cent, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

41. 36. Unemployment Percentage of the labour force, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

42. 37. Commodity price index excluding energy Index, USD Sources: The Economist and the Riksbank.

43. 38. GDP, scenario with lower commodity prices Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

44. 39. Repo rate, scenario with lower commodity prices Per cent, quaterly average Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

45. 40. CPI, scenario with lower commodity prices Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

46. 41. Repo rate, scenario with lower growth and higher inflation Per cent, quaterly average Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

47. 42. CPI, scenario with lower growth and higher inflation Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

48. 43. GDP, scenario with lower growth and higher inflation Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

49. 44. Production gap (GDP), scenario with lower growth and higher inflation Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

50. 45. Labour market gap, scenario with lower growth and higher inflation Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

51. 46. Difference between interbank rates and government bond rates (TED spread) Basis points Sources: Reuters, Ecowin and the Riksbank.

52. 47. Basis-spread and Ted-spread Per cent Source: Reuters Ecowin

53. 48. Spread between interbank rates and expected monetary policy (Basis spread) Basis points Sources: Reuters, Ecowin and the Riksbank.

54. 49. Monetary policy expectations in the United States Per cent Sources: Reuters, Ecowin and the Riksbank. Note. Forward rates have been adjusted for risk premiums and describe the expected overnight rate.

55. 50. Monetary policy expectations in the euro area Per cent Sources: Reuters Ecowin and the Riksbank. Note. Forward rates have been adjusted for risk premiums and describe the expected overnight rate.

56. 51. Monetary policy expectations in Sweden according to money market participants. Per cent Sources: Reuters Ecowin, Prospera Research AB and the Riksbank Note. Forward rates have been adjusted for risk premiums and describe the expected overnight rate.

57. 52. Two-year interest rates Per cent Source: Reuters EcoWin Note. Government bonds with approximately 2 years left to maturity.

58. 53. Long-term interest rates Per cent Source: Reuters Ecowin Note. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity.

59. 54. Interbank rates in Sweden Per cent Source: The Riksbank

60. 55. Exchange rate movements SEK per euro and dollar Source: Reuters Ecowin

61. 56. Stock market movements Index, 1 January 1999=100 Source: Reuters Ecowin

62. 57. The money supply Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

63. 58. Households’ new saving in deposit accounts or shares and unit trusts, quarter SEK billion Note. The households’ new saving is the net amount households invest in their deposit accounts or unit trusts, or in the net purchase of shares, during a quarter. Four-quarter moving average. Source: Statistics Sweden

64. 59. Purchase price coefficient in Sweden as a whole C/I ratio Source: Statistics Sweden

65. 60. House prices and total lending to Swedish households Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Quarterly observations of house prices and monthly observations of lending to households.

66. 61. Employment and private consumption in the United States Annual percentage change Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Department of Commerce

67. 62. Economic indicators for the euro area Index, December 2005 = 100, and annual percentage change Sources: European Commission and OECD

68. 63. Confidence indicators for households Net figures Source: European Commission

69. 64. Consumerprices Annual percentage change Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat, OECD and Statistics Sweden

70. 65. HICP in the euro area Annual percentage change Source: Eurostat

71. 66. Confidence indicators in the business sector Seasonally adjusted balance Source: National Institute of Economic Research

72. 67. Gross fixed capital formation Annual percentage change Source: Statistics Sweden and The Riksbank

73. 68. Foreign trade with goods at fixed prices Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Three-month moving averages

74. 69. Retail sales and household consumption Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the National Institute of Economic Research

75. 70. Household expectations of the future Net figures Source: Statistics Sweden and The Riksbank

76. 71. New and unfilled vacant jobs and redundancy notices Thousands, seasonalöly adjusted data Source: Swedish Public Employment Service Note. Three month moving average.

77. 72. Proportion of firms reporting a shortage of labourft Per cent, seasonally adjusted data Source: National Institute of Economic Research

78. 73. Capacity utilisation in industry Per cent, seasonally adjusted data Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden

79. 74. Estimated gaps Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources:Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent thr Riksbank's forecast

80. 75. Different agents’ expectations of inflation two years ahead Annual percentage change Source: Prospera Research AB

81. 76. Actual inflation (CPI) and households’ and companies’ expectations of inflation one year ahead Annual percentage change Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden

82. 77. The difference between nominal and real five- year rates (break-even inflation) Percentage points Source: The Riksbank

83. 78. The Economist’s commodity price index for food USD Source: The Economist.

84. 79. Prices of goods and services in the CPI Annual percentage change Source: Statistics Sweden Note. The weight of the respective components is given in brackets.

85. 80. Different measures of underlying inflation Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

86. 81. Inflation in Sweden and the euro area Annual percenatge change Sources:Eurostat and Statistics Sweden Note: The series for Sweden refers to the CPI and the series for the euro area refers to HICP.

87. 82. Food prices for consumers in Sweden and the euro area Annual percentage change Sources: Eurostat and Statistics Sweden Note: The series for Sweden refers to the CPI and the series for the euro area refers to HICP.

88. 83. CPI excluding energy and food Annual percentage change Sources: Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and Bureau of Labor Statistics Note. HICP for the euro area and Sweden and the CPI for the USA

89. B1. The repo rate and the interest rate index in the CPI Per cent for the respective indices, January 1995 = 100 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

90. B2. Capital stock index in the CPI and the property price index for single-family dwellings Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

91. B3. CPI, CPIX and CPIF, outcomes and forecasts Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

92. B4. The CPI excluding certain goods Annual percentage change Source: The Riksbank (Inflation Report 2001:2)

93. B5. The CPIX including and excluding energy Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note Broken lines represents the forecasts from Inflation report 2003:1

94. B6. Nominal and real one-year interest rates 1996- 2008 Per cent Sources: NIER, Prospera Research AB and the Riksbank.

95. B7. Real repo rate according to the Riksbank's forecasts Per cent, quarterly data Sources: NIER, Prospera Research AB and the Riksbank.

96. B8. The companies’ answers to questions about price developments Net figures Source: The Riksbank

97. Table A1. Inflation, 12-month figures Annual percentage change, ( ) = Latest MPR Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

98. Table A2. Change in the CPI compared to the CPIX Annual percentage change and percentage points, ( ) = Latest MPR Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

99. Table A3. Summary of financial forecasts Per cent, annual average, ( ) = Latest MPR Source: The Riksbank

100. Table A4. International conditions I Annual percentage change, ( ) = Latest MPR Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD and the Riksbank

101. Table A5. GDP by expenditure Annual percentage change, ( ) = Latest MPR Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank *Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points

102. Table A6. Production and employment Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified, ( ) = Latest MPR Sources: Employment Service, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank *Per cent of labour force

103. Table A7. Wages and unit labour costs for the economy as a whole Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data ( ) = Latest MPR Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank *Contribution to the increase in labour costs, percentage points

104. Table A8. Repo rate Per cent, annual average Source: The Riksbank

105. Table A9. CPI Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

106. Table A10. Real repo rate Per cent Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

107. Table A11. GDP Annual percentage change. seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

108. Table A12. Number of hours worked Annual percentage change. seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

109. Table A13. Percentage of unemployed 16-64 years old, according to ILO definition Percentage of the labour force. seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

110. Table A14. Lower commodity prices Annual percentage change unless otherwise specified Sources: Intercontinental Exchange, The Economist, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank *Per cent, annual average Note. Main scenario’s forecast in brackets. Commodity prices refer to commodities excluding oil products. GDP refers to seasonally-adjusted data.

111. Table A15. Lower growth, higher inflation Annual percentage change unless otherwise specified Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank *Per cent, annual average Note. Main scenario’s forecast in brackets. GDP refers to seasonally-adjusted data.