1. FOREST SECTOR MITIGATION IN INDIA Ravindranath, Sudha & Sandhya Indian Institute of Science Bangalore

2. Objectives  i) To estimate the mitigation potential of forest sector in India under different scenarios Develop baseline & project scenario Develop baseline & project scenario Estimate additionality of carbon benefit Estimate additionality of carbon benefit  ii) To assess costs and benefits  iii) To assess barriers and options to mitigation activities

3. Steps In Assessing Forest Sector Mitigation Potential  Develop baseline scenario  Identify & develop project scenario Technical potential scenario Technical potential scenario Sustainable forestry scenario- Biomass demand Sustainable forestry scenario- Biomass demand Commercial forestry scenario- Biomass demand Commercial forestry scenario- Biomass demand  Identify mitigation activities and area - based on Biomass demands Biomass demands Area available, suitable Area available, suitable  Estimating C-stock changes using PROCOMAP model Under baseline scenario Under baseline scenario Under project scenario Under project scenario Incremental C-stock or C-benefits Incremental C-stock or C-benefits  Estimating cost-effectiveness, investment cost  Assessment of barriers to mitigation projects and options

4. Land Use Pattern in India

6. Mitigation Potential Through a Sustainable Forest Management Approach for India  Potential Scenarios  Technical potential scenario  Sustainable forestry scenario  Commercial forestry scenario  Potential Mitigation Activities  Afforestation – short rotation  Afforestation – long rotation  Forest regeneration (reforestation)  Forest Protection  Bioenergy

7. Baseline Scenario  Current rate of forest loss projected to continue 1984 to 1994 = 400,000 ha 1984 to 1994 = 400,000 ha 1995 to 1997 = 274,000 ha 1995 to 1997 = 274,000 ha  Rates of afforestation projected to decline  Area under crops stabilized (at ~ 150 Mha)  Current (10 th plan) rate of investment projected to continue  Biomass demands are not systematically addressed in afforestation programs

8. Sustainable Forestry Scenario- STEPS 1.Estimate fuelwood, industrial wood and sawn wood demands for 2015 2.Assess land use pattern and surplus land available for forestry activities 3.Identify forestry activities for meeting biomass demands eg. Short-rotation plantation for ind.wood 4.Allocate forestry activities to compatible land categories; SR-plantations for private lands 5.Meet current biomass demands (for 2000) from baseline activities; existing forests, plantations, farms 6.Meet incremental (2015 minus 2000) biomass demands from proposed forestry activities

9. Commercial Forestry (CF) Scenario  Government supported A&R and Protected area on Reserve forest, Social forestry on Community or Government lands  Industrial wood, sawnwood and urban fuelwood demand through commercial approach in private lands  Full incremental biomass demand rate projected for 2000-2015 period through commercial forestry approach through commercial forestry approach

10. Method of Estimation of Carbon Benefits & Costs  COMAP model developed by F-7 (Tropical Forest -7) Network coordinated by LBNL  Inputs; Baseline & project scenario  Land available, Area to be afforested-yearly, Soil C & Biomass stock & growth rate, Rotation period, Life of product, investment cost, annual cost, monitoring cost, value of products (timber, fuelwood, NTFPs)  Outputs; Baseline and Mitigation scenario  Annual and cumulative carbon stock changes (tC/ha)  Incremental carbon stock  Total C stock per ha  Cost-Effectiveness;  Investment cost; Rs/tC or Rs/ha  Life cycle cost; Rs/tC or Rs/ha  Net present value of returns; Rs/tC

11. Biomass demand in India (Mt) Biomass demand Incremental demand 20002015 Sawnwood18.738.319.6 Roundwood8.314.46.1 Panel Products 4.214.410.2 Pulp and paper 10.428.718.3 Fuelwood199.5249.049.5

12. Baseline Scenario  Afforestation expected to decline from 0.84 Mha to 0.74 Mha beyond 2000  Forest loss/conversion rates expected to continue at current rates of 274,000 ha annually  Current demands (for 2000) expected to be met from existing forests, plantations, farms, etc.

13. Annual area to be dedicated to produce biomass Area available (Mha) Area to be dedicated (Mha) Annual area to be planted (ha) Short Rotation 38.223.63121,000 Fuelwood38.227.72247,000 Long Rotation 14.26.66222,000 Forest Regeneration 11.1011.10370,000 Forest Protection 8.49274,100

14. Mitigation Potential and Cost of Forestry Sector Activities

15. Costs and Benefits 0.99 0.21 0.12 164.00 35.00 Forest Protection 0.3911.6918.86 Lifecycle cost ($/Mg C/ha) 0.269.2613.77 Investment Cost ($ /Mg C) -867.73-584.0055.00 NPV of benefits ($/ha) 68.00877.00415.00 Lifecycle cost ($/ha) 45.00695.00303.00 Investment cost ($/ha) Forest Regeneration Forest Regeneration Long Rotation Long Rotation Short Rotation Short Rotation

16. Mitigation Potential

18. Incremental Mitigation Potential (MtC) Sustainable Forestry Scenario 217(B-A) Incremental C Stock 237(2012-2000)B57645527 Mitigation Scenario C-stock 20(2000-2012)A55075527 Baseline Scenario C- stock Change in C- stock 201220001990 Annual income from carbon credits = Rs. 500 Crores

19. Investment Required (Rs. Million) Forestry activities Area (Mha) Mitigation Scenario (increment over baseline) 2000-20122000-2030 Short rotation plantation 3.633226540635 Long-rotation plantation 6.664459556115 Regeneration11.1033754320 Forest protection 8.4935554500 TOTAL29.8883790105570 Additional annual investment needed = Rs. 700 to 1500 crores

20. Socio-economic impact of mitigation options  Employment and income generation through wage labour  Firewood and fodder collection from plantations for the local communities  Reduced needs for fuelwood collection for the local communities  Income generation through NTFP collection  Reduction in pressure on forests  Positive implications for biodiversity  Watershed protection

21. Data, Methods, Models are critical- Baseline & Project Activities  Monitoring & estimating AGB stock, annual AGB growth rate AGB stock, annual AGB growth rate Soil carbon stock, annual / periodic changes Soil carbon stock, annual / periodic changes Litter production Litter production  Developing ratio of AGB to BGB  Monitoring extraction rates and effects on carbon stock  Monitoring area changes, crown cover changes and linking to biomass stock changes  Estimating production of wood and NTFPs & values  Models for projecting biomass and soil carbon stock  Models for estimating costs and benefits  Models & methods for incorporating barriers for estimating mitigation potential

22. Addressing Contentious Issues Guidelines, Methods, Models  NON-PERMANENCE/REVERSIBILITY OF CARBON SEQUESTERED; Temporary nature of CO 2 removal by sinks from LUCF activities  Estimating C stocks annually  LEAKAGE; Net change of anthropogenic emissions by sources of GHGs and removal by sinks, which occurs outside the project boundary, and which is measurable and attributable to the CDM project activity  Estimating C stock changes within & outside project boundary  ADDITIONALITY; A project activity is additional if anthropogenic GHG emissions are reduced below those that would have occurred in the absence of the project activity [OR ] CO 2 removal by sinks that are higher than that would have occurred in the absence of a project activity  - Estimate C-stock changes under baseline and mitigation Sce

23. Issues…  BASELINE DEVELOPMENT Reliable estimates of C stock changes in the proposed project area in the absence of project activity Reliable estimates of C stock changes in the proposed project area in the absence of project activity  METHODS TO ADDRESS CONTENTIOUS ISSUES ARE AVAILABLE  Simplification  Reduce costs & increase accuracy  Create access to potential users  ACCOUNTING RULES FOR ADDRESSING CONTENTIOUS ISSUES  SBSTA & IPCC are developing guidelines & methods  TRANSACTION COSTS; for baseline dev. Monitoring and project administration - Minimum  BUILDING INSTITUTIONS & CAPACITY TO ENHANCE PARTICIPATION OF LOCAL INSTITUTIONS  critical