1. Third National Climate Assessment (2014) Specialty agriculture in future climate: A personal view of the NCA Richard Grotjahn UC Davis Professor and California Pistachio Farmer Rich Fields Farm

2. California: Leading commodities for cash receipts, 2009 Percent Value RankItems Value ofof totalCumulativeof U.S. indicates #1 state receipts percent 1/value 2/receipts indicates #2 state 1,000 dollars------------Percent------------1,000 dollars All commodities34,840,647100.0--12.3283,406,168 Livestock and products7,814,00622.4--6.5119,751,629 Crops27,026,64177.6--16.5163,654,539 1Dairy products4,537,17113.0 18.624,342,440 2Greenhouse/nursery3,792,29510.923.923.815,914,592 3Grapes3,267,8489.433.388.63,689,412 4Almonds2,293,5006.639.9100.02,293,500 5Lettuce1,725,7995.044.878.82,189,219 6Strawberries1,725,2325.049.881.22,124,195 7Cattle and calves1,676,3734.854.63.843,776,568 8Tomatoes1,509,6474.358.959.42,541,986 9Rice928,1732.761.630.53,041,344 10Hay864,1632.564.115.15,726,526 11Walnuts738,5302.166.2100.0738,530 12Broccoli698,3762.068.294.1741,900 13Oranges655,8201.970.132.91,993,237 14Pistachios592,8501.771.8100.0592,850 15Carrots499,7661.473.284.9588,942 16Lemons364,2481.074.392.4394,199 17Celery349,9181.075.395.9364,816 18Peaches326,3310.976.254.9594,248 19Chicken eggs319,7710.977.15.26,155,825 20Cotton303,8230.978.08.73,488,956 21Raspberries297,3150.978.882.0362,606 22Cauliflower255,7660.779.689.2286,612 23Plums and prunes251,9230.780.397.6258,043 24Wheat230,7520.781.02.011,315,147 Calif. Ag. is #1 (Top 24 crops) Red is 1st in US Yellow is 2 nd in US

3. Central Valley irrigation farmers irrigate a lot in the central valley – that’s why its green surrounded by brown in this photo from space Photo © NASA

4. Ag-climate factors Models predict warmer, drier periods that matter to Ag. A2 scenario Frost free season # frost days Consec. dry days # hot nights

5. On average everything hotter Many climate models predict warming of extreme temperatures. (RCP8.5 scenario) Winter min Winter max Summer min Summer max

6. The ‘new wave’ is heat waves 5 day heat wave becomes the median! (RCP 8.5 scenario) Longest periods off the chart: one is 36 another is 42 days in a row! Source: Grotjahn (2013)

7. Irrigation is cool! Irrigation means evaporation and that makes it 3-5 F cooler. Photo © NASA

8. Plants have Air Conditioning! Plants AC is ‘transpiration’ Different plants respond differently to heat. Some don’t like it hot For many, yields decline as T goes up

9. Just add water Plants use water to transpire and not wilt First adaption is to pour on more water. Problem solved! Except… more water from where? Photo © EPA

10. Don’t look down for water Groundwater levels declining Water may be way down, at historic depths Source: California DWR (2014)

11. Don’t look up for more water Models predict, on average: winter precip. about same, spring may be drier

12. Calif. will be less (snow) flakey! Much less will be stored as snow Over all the SW

13. Dam! where’d the water go? Dams don’t store as much. And, now you see it, now you don’t Droughts come and go, but people want to eat all the time July 2011 January 2014 Photos © USGS

14. Just add water? … stress! Brown is not good And there are other climate-related stressors mentioned in the NCA

15. Photos © UCANR Some like it hot Many insect pests like the heat, pathogens too, some weeds grow better, oh my! Time for one more extreme…

16. Did I mention, CA is #1? California is number 1 in peaches You didn’t think it was Georgia, did you??? Photo © R. Grotjahn

17. CA crops need to chill out! Peaches and other stone fruits, pomme fruits, tree nuts, need a dormant period each winter measured in hours between freezing and 50F Photos © UCANR or R. Grotjahn

18. Never enough time to do what you need to do (chill) Those chilling hours are declining,

19. What goes up (mostly) comes down (at least it used to) Weather is not climate, it has ups and downs. Ag can adapt to some variation Average summer max temperatures may be a standard deviation above today’s norm

20. Conclusions: Future Shock! Everything warmer Extremes become the norm. California will be less (snow) flakey Want more water that’s not there Ag will adapt & change For More Information: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/ Chapter 6: Agriculture