1. Green Financing: Carbon Markets 2011 US-China Green Development Symposium Bruce Usher Executive-in-Residence Co-Director, Social Enterprise Program Columbia Business School, New York City June 10, 2011

2. Columbia Business School A negative externality occurs when a decision has costs to individuals or groups other than those making the decision. In other words, the decision-maker does not bear all of the costs from his or her own action. This will result in an outcome that is not socially optimal. Climate Change: Defining the Problem 2

3. Columbia Business School Carbon Markets: The Kyoto Protocol (2001) 3

4. Columbia Business School 4 Carbon Markets: The EU Emissions Trading System (2005) (EUAs) EU (-8%) EU ETS UK GermanyhFranceSpain … Utility AUtility BUtility CUtility D …

5. Columbia Business School 5 Carbon Markets: Linking the EU Emissions Trading System and the Kyoto Protocol (2005) (EUAs) EU (-8%) EU ETS UK GermanyhFranceSpain … Utility AUtility BUtility CUtility D … Linking Directive

6. Columbia Business School Yes! 6 Carbon Markets: Success of the CDM

7. Columbia Business School 7 Carbon Markets: Success of the EU ETS Growth in trading Volumes EU ETS emission permits–Jan 2005 to Oct 2007 Source: Point Carbon

8. Columbia Business School Lessons Learned from the CDM and EU ETS Carbon Markets? 8

9. Columbia Business School CDM Lesson #1: Markets change behavior 9

10. Columbia Business School CDM Lesson #2: Contract integrity is critical Credit Buyer eg European Utility “Focal Point” Renewable Energy Project eg Chinese Wind Developer System Administrator eg CDM Executive Board Verifier eg Swiss auditor $ CreditsProject audit Verification Report 10

11. Columbia Business School Yes! Oh no… 11 CDM Lesson #3: Markets require stable, long-term policies

12. Columbia Business School 12 CDM Lesson #4: Markets need to be efficient

13. Columbia Business School EU ETS Lesson #1: Long-term policies change investment patterns 13

14. Columbia Business School 14 EU ETS Lesson #2: Linking markets increases liquidity

15. Columbia Business School What is the Future of Carbon Markets? 15

16. Columbia Business School Future of Carbon Markets: EU ETS has long-term support 16

17. Columbia Business School Future of Carbon Markets: CDM has the Linking Directive 17

18. Columbia Business School Future of Carbon Markets: US has no support 18

19. Columbia Business School Future of Carbon Markets: Predictions  EU ETS will remain stable through 2020, with modestly increasing trading volume  Kyoto Protocol will not be extended past 2012, but  CDM market will remain in place past 2012, with stable to lower trading volumes  US carbon market will not develop until after 2014 at the earliest 19

20. Green Financing: Carbon Markets 2011 US-China Green Development Symposium Bruce Usher Executive-in-Residence Co-Director, Social Enterprise Program Columbia Business School, New York City June 10, 2011