1. Things Are Great! So Start Worrying. Aviation/Defense Industry Overview And Forecast Presentation To The National Aeronautic Association Arlington, VA Richard Aboulafia Vice President, Analysis Teal Group Corporation www.tealgroup.com January 2015

4. Aircraft Markets, Through Good And Bad Years The Numbers Are Better Than We Feel….

9. LRS-B Looking Good But What About The Other Funding?

23. Big Picture Risks And Opportunities The US: only healthy big economy. All jetliner market change is bad. – Fuel is changing. – A post-2020 bust? 787 deferred costs. Does Boeing need a new single-aisle? Everything about the A380. CSeries and BBD. Republican shift: back to non-deficit hawks. LRS-B: M&A precipitator? USN and the tactical combat market. Oil prices and civil helos. Business jet market recovery sustainability.